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Old 05.05.2007, 13:59
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Re: What's just happened to the Swiss Franc?

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Hi,

The same thing is happening for me and my euros.

When the spread between interest rates in the UK and Switzerland decrease, the rate should return more towards previous (in your case, favourable) levels. Interest rates are so high now that institutions can borrow CHF at Swiss levels and and buy sterling to get paid at UK levels which drives up the price of Sterling. (Maybe you're aware of this, in which case I apologise for appearing condescending).

Now, when they will reduce interest rates is another question... Anyone?
Yeah the "Carry trade" as they call it is more commonly associated with the Japanese yen, but the Swiss Franc definitely gets used for it as well.

It's a kind of trade that involves risk, so that when the share market had its little plunge a while back and got risk aversive, the Swiss Franc got quite a bit stronger as a result.

But the interest rates thing doesn't always apply. When the dollar was quite weak against the sterling somebody who favoured a strong dollar once said back in 2003

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there is a difference in interest rates, particularly between Europe and the United States, and that interest rate differential has caused people to sell dollars to buy euros to get a higher return on investment. And that's why you're seeing pressure on the dollar.
And, of course, the European Union is, like the United States, has got an independent organization that sets monetary policy. But you'll see a -- you'll see different behavior as interest rate spreads begin to narrow between Europe and the United States


Well the rates in the US, which at the time were a fraction of those in Europe and the UK, are now higher than in Europe and nearly up with those of the UK

yet the dollar has weakened

Mind you, the guy who said that wasn't much of an economist,...it was George W Bush
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