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  #21  
Old 29.10.2015, 14:44
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Re: Switzerland after black swan event

All those are good points, however it needs more brainstorming.
1. Population growth of about 1% per year, mostly from immigration, increases demand for housing. ( the immigrants in general are not in position to buy a flat/house....
** Most immigrants would rent (also see final comment below). 60% of housing stock is rented and 40% is owner-occupied.
2. Positive real return on rental housing vs. no return on Swiss government bonds. Agreed
3. Available credit to finance property.[/ Its not easy to pay 25% down payment.
** Rental property owners include property companies, insurance companies, banks, pension funds and private individuals.
** For individuals, consider the high Gini wealth index to understand who can afford a down payment or pay outright for rental or owner-occupied property.
** Some immigrant groups do well, better than the Swiss on average, e.g., French, Brits, Germans.
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Old 29.10.2015, 14:58
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Re: Switzerland after black swan event

Thank you for sharing your views, that is exactly what I wanted. Are you up for some challenge???

Sure. Switzerland has most jobs in SMEs, but the media is naturally always just interested in the large stock traded companies.PIP: Hmm.. yes... but it was very brutal. I am in the FW more than 10+ years and remember when Refco shut down, however this event really deserved media attention. It was BRUTAL, no questions about it.

Here is a fact: Switzerland did not suddenly get expensive in January - it has been for decades. So all the industries that rely on low wages and manual labor, for example textile production, left the country long ago.PIP: agreed, however when people can afford it and dont mind being brain washed
wiht the idea of more u pay better quality you get, it worked. Now I see CEOs, MDs burning hard for their contracts and salaries.

Who is:
- retail. Honestly was it always cheaper to buy abroad, but this year is the gap so large that even the conservative Swiss consumers finally start buying abroad. Swiss companies react with grey imports and the like... with limited success. Heard a story this morning on the radio: Otto's bought a large shipment of Fischer skis abroad and offered them below the Swiss recommended retail price... Fischer sent it's employees out to buy them up before the offer destroys their margin in the Swiss market! PIP: The story is priceless.... made my day!

Apparently does the company threaten any foreign partner they have to not sell in bulk to Switzerland anymore... or else. Which is frankly illegal according to Swiss law.
- any company that was struggling before. I heard "the strong Swiss Franc" as the default argument for any layoffs in the country this year. A week or two ago did it hit a three digit number of people at Rieter in Winterthur. What the news did not mention: The company has been declining for decades, there was a wave of layoffs every other year. PIP.. the companies are for sure using the SNB crises to make it work for them And this is the reality, that many companies in Swiss industry have not being performing well for quire sometimes.... and the current economy is the proof.


If you want to compete internationally but stay based in Switzerland do you need to innovate and offer a better product - cause you won't be able to compete on price. But again, that's not new and cannot be all blamed on the CHF... PIP Agreed not ALLL but a LOT. Novartis is also laying off...and using the old same old same CHF peg.
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  #23  
Old 29.10.2015, 15:09
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Re: Switzerland after black swan event

Hi Pretty in Pink.
In reponse to your original question.

2 main reasons.

1. Limited land supply and strict regulations (on where houses can be built)
2. stable rental market

So I am directly effected by the 2000 jobs you mentioned in your original post. If I have to relocate and leave switzerland I will not sell my property. Ill rent it out and then rent myself in the other country. The rental market here is much safer.
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Old 29.10.2015, 16:40
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Re: Switzerland after black swan event

a few factors:

1. record low interest rates
2. few alternative investments
3. strong rental demand

it remains to be seen what will happen as the strong franc leads to jobs moving overseas.
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  #25  
Old 29.10.2015, 16:49
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Re: Switzerland after black swan event

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Could someone explain a "Black Swan" event please?
People have described what Black Swan events (as used by Taleb) are, but neglected a bit to elaborate on why it is important to consider the concept. The human brain injects a large number of well documented biases into our thought process (confirmation bias, survivorship bias, lookahead bias etc...) and it is basically impossible to eliminate all these biases even when a person consciously attempts to do so. As a scientist, I expect you are well aware of these since the scientific research process is engineered such to suppress as many of these as possible. One of the simple biases is the fact that an event that hasn't been observed in the past tends to be considered impossible (mostly unconsciously) by people. For a statistician, this is a fundamental mistake, it is the analogue of treating a sample of a population the same as the whole of the population and thus neglecting to consider this fact as a source of errors in any predictions.

Example: most people have never been dive bombed by a bird of prey while running a forest trail before, so for all intents and purposes this event is considered extremely unlikely and I certainly have never heard of a single instance of it happening. That is until it happened to me while running up the Albispass. It thus came as an utter surprise to me when I got hit from behind by an 'effin falcon.

The next time I ran there, I saw the bastard upfront and sure as hell he tried it again but I knew that it's coming and I could predict and evade it's maneuvers.

These kind of issues are pervasive everywhere in reality. People underestimate the likelihood of extreme events simply because they are rare, even to the point to ignoring the possibility of something happening (and thus implicitly assuming that it is impossible), simply because said event hasn't been observed yet.

This is actually a good thing, because in almost every aspect of life, you have to work with incomplete information, and the vast majority of the time it is more effective to make a decision than get bogged down trying to forecast increasingly harebrained events. There is a very strong effect of diminishing returns.

Just as an example, many people predicted 2008, and the vast majority of them have predicted a dozen crises beforehand that didn't materialize and another dozen since that also haven't materialized. If one actually tried to bet on all these predictions, they'd have lost far more money than the gains in 2008 would've been. What plays into the hands of these doomsday artists is yet another bias of the brain that tends to stress a recently event far more than observations before it.

Last edited by xynth; 29.10.2015 at 16:53. Reason: Removed incorrect information.
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