I will probably be returning to the US next year and am thinking about converting some of my Euros to US$. I am in no hurry, and am wondering if anyone has opinions about where the $ might be next year. I could leave my accounts here and even start investing it here.

Just curious what EF members are thinking about the global economy over the next year and what people are doing with their money.

fduvall

At worst, you might lose some Euro if it goes down a bit. But if I were you and I don't need the cash, I'd leave it in Euro.

If we could answer that kind of question, we'd all be pretty wealthy. ;-) Predicting currency markets is pretty hard to do!

Good luck, but I'd say your best bet is to have a diversified approach where you keep a bit in USD and a bit in Euro. It's not necessarily the route to the most money, but it's the safer approach.

There is another thread about EUR/CHF here. This what I had to say:
At one time I studied what the experts forecast but they have rarely got it right. I gave up doing this when I saw an article that went back and compared forecasts with what actually happened and found that something like 70% got it wrong. The conclusion being that you should study what the experts say then do the opposite to have the best chance !
Sorry, I know this doesn't help but, I've given up reading forecasts.

As Corbets says, we would all be rich if we could get it right.

Haha one of my old jobs. You borrow cheap yen then gamble against a drop/rise in another currency. Banks make hell of a lot of money out of this 3m a day sterling average in the bank I worked in.

I'd say leave it in Euros for 3 months then look at it again. Dollar is still weakening against Sterling + Euro, but it won't drop much lower I reckon. Then change it quickly before the dollar rises again.

Saying that sub prime lending is really affecting the US markets hence no confidence in the US Dollar. So i reckon this might go on for a year or so. Depends if the US housing market drops out. If it does keep the money in Euros.

Saying that as always (see a independent advisor) or in my case phone up my foreign exchange broker pals in the Channel Islands and bribe them with beer!