i would say forget reading all the mainstream investment tips and commentators. the only guy that actually stands out as having called it right was peter schiff. watch this video:
right now, things are in really interesting times and there is plenty of money to be made, but you need to keep your eyes open.
i'm really amazed by how SLOWLY things are moving. i used to take part in a small forum of like-minded investors and some of the things we looked at back in 2005/2006 are only just being considered now!
for example, back then we looked at the impact of the coming housing crash while everyone was still in boom mode. not just the sub-prime which hit a few years later, but also the big tranches of option-arms which will reset around 2011 (these are only just getting some attention now!)
the problem is that investments tend to get hyped in the mainstream press at the sucker end of a boom. here's a list of a few things that we made money on:
- interest rates (predicting the loosening monetary response prior to the crisis)
- gold (i was late in the game at $600/oz. other members got in a $300)
- shorting UK banks prior to NRK collapse (literally a few days before - i missed out as at the time I worked for the firm auditing NRK and was prevented from dealing for independence reasons)
- short sterling
then there were other items where we had differing opinions:
- JPY pile in to catch the unwinding of the carry trade (some made money on this) - or too much of a risk due to demographics and pension ponzi coming to crisis?
- CHF/NOK - obviously i went with the CHF camp and switched my earnings here, but there is a big and real risk of swiss banking collapse and also political risk around tax avoidance as govts scramble for tax revenue
- CAD/AUD - secure currencies backed by mineral wealth? or is oz just a few years behind and have their own property bubble waiting to be popped?
- USD - the big one! how long can USD ride it out as a safe haven while the US continues with massive debts?
- agricultural commodities - another contentious one. perhaps the next boom area, but i was sceptical of this. bio-fuels add another factor to the mix
- commodities (oil, mining) - how does decreased demand from recession play off against rise of the BRICs?
but the biggest gains can be if you put a bit of work in. the biggest gains i made were from completely random opportunities i saw. e.g. govt scrapped a certain project and the equipment went to an IT recycler - i bought the units at a super-low price and re-sold for 20x - 40x gain.
another example is the vuvuzela - some people have made a fair bit of money on this.
if you keep an entrepreneurial mindset, you'll see opportunities everywhere.
my philosophy is to think small and try to be cash-flow positive/profitable ASAP. forget the trappings of business.
the first company i started was a disaster, i wasted money on starting a ltd company, getting letterhead printed etc. etc. waste of time and money. focus on the cash end of the business and the rest will sort itself out.