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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
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  #181  
Old 07.06.2012, 12:45
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Seems the SNB spent 66 Billion CHF in May buying euros to keep the 1.20 ceiling.

These are huge numbers; how long will they keep it up?
don't know, but they might have done better to give the money directly to swiss businesses instead of giving it to currency speculators.
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  #182  
Old 07.06.2012, 13:01
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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So many fear mongers. Last time I checked, the euro was still the only official currency in some countries. Surprise, surprise.
What a foolish thread.
Currencies come and go all the time . New/old there is always a cycle, and they all disappear eventually. Just dust off your history book and open your mind. There are only so many who can be ahead of the curve.

Its all faith....... until all of a sudden its gone .
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  #183  
Old 07.06.2012, 13:08
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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So many fear mongers. Last time I checked, the euro was still the only official currency in some countries. Surprise, surprise.
What a foolish thread.
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  #184  
Old 07.06.2012, 13:18
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Argentina government is feeding conflict and keep using their power (media, official comments, etc...) to lead the population against the British!

There has been a recent war in Falklands, it was lost and accepted by Argentina.

But they clearly changed mind (after their defeat that costed many lives) and feed the conflict again. A bit like a little dogs biting your ankle when you have your back turned...

I'm not even British, but that is what I observe-
So I would not comment much on the "good Argentina government"!!!
I don't think I have implied anywhere that any 'government is good' let alone the Argentinian one.
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  #185  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:09
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Currencies come and go all the time . New/old there is always a cycle, and they all disappear eventually. Just dust off your history book and open your mind. There are only so many who can be ahead of the curve.

Its all faith....... until all of a sudden its gone .
That's exactly what I was going to say. At the end of the day, you just have to "get on with it". There is no point in worrying about something you have no control over.
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  #186  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:21
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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That's exactly what I was going to say. At the end of the day, you just have to "get on with it". There is no point in worrying about something you have no control over.
you might not have control of the car hurtling towards you, but you can get out of the way
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  #187  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:24
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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don't know, but they might have done better to give the money directly to swiss businesses instead of giving it to currency speculators.
I agree.

So the SNB holdings in foreign currency are now 300 Billion; if my shaky maths is correct then that is around 50,000CHF per head for every man, woman & child in Switzerland.
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  #188  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:26
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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That's exactly what I was going to say. At the end of the day, you just have to "get on with it". There is no point in worrying about something you have no control over.
well exactly what the guy said below...
You have control because if they resume the "older money", they might apply a conversion rate 1 to 1...
So if you have 1 euros you end up with 1 drachma... (or peseta or whatever).

Meaning the people are screwed (first the travellers one, then probably a big flush inside their country).

So you have control, that's why some Spanish are swapping Euros for CHF, they are trying to secure their money/buying power...

(although it's a bet as nothing garantee the CHF will be a good investment).
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  #189  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:28
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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So I think your "issue" of ageing population may be genuine and relevant but how we address it is the key. And it will requires a definitely different approach, more clever than politic.
Oh, it's genuine. All you have to do is have a grasp of maths and look at the numbers. As for clever, I'm not sure that there's any room left for clever since, as you pointed out, this has been a known problem since the 70s and the can has nowhere else to go as it has run out of road. I have every expectation that retirement will become a thing of the past for anyone younger than 50. Who knows what will happen with the rest. You can't keep extending life expectancies, pushing the retirement age back AND have only one or fewer children with the expectation that the ponzi scheme will work....even with the import of foreigners.
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  #190  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:36
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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you might not have control of the car hurtling towards you, but you can get out of the way
Not if the whole thing blows up.

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well exactly what the guy said below...
You have control because if they resume the "older money", they might apply a conversion rate 1 to 1...
So if you have 1 euros you end up with 1 drachma... (or peseta or whatever).

Meaning the people are screwed (first the travellers one, then probably a big flush inside their country).

So you have control, that's why some Spanish are swapping Euros for CHF, they are trying to secure their money/buying power...

(although it's a bet as nothing garantee the CHF will be a good investment).
You have no control over if the economy blows up or not. That's what I'm saying. Sure do your best to hedge you risk. I've done my best spreading my risk. That's all I can do. Maybe in some cases I've chosen correctly and in others I've chosen incorrectly.

But at the end of the day, I'm not going to stock pile toilet paper.


BTW, since the peseta or whatever didn't come in at 1:1, I'm assuming they won't get out at 1:1 either. No?
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  #191  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:44
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I agree.

So the SNB holdings in foreign currency are now 300 Billion; if my shaky maths is correct then that is around 50,000CHF per head for every man, woman & child in Switzerland.
Yes thats close give or take. I posted the SNB balance sheet (attached) previously, about 250 Billion CHF in actual foreign currency. Their balance sheet is more than 60% of the entire economy, that doesnt say much to most until you realize that 10 years ago it was THREE times smaller.

51% of that is Euro's - so approx 125 Bill CHF. Now the SNB cant hold the floor forever because they have to load up on even more euros and face larger losses. So now lets say the CHF/EUR 'floor' gets smashed and we head back to 1- 1.05 CHF per Euro. The SNB is looking at a 20 Bill CHF loss just on Euros, give or take. Now of course, you have the other currencies the SNB is carrying which would also weaken with a stronger franc and the gold holdings would also. Then you are looking at minimum 25-40+bill loss - or approx CHF5000 per person. Its staggering and pretty dangerous stuff.
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  #192  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:48
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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That's exactly what I was going to say. At the end of the day, you just have to "get on with it". There is no point in worrying about something you have no control over.
That's not what I understood Lex meant.
He said, "There are only so many who can be ahead of the curve." implying that some will (at least try) to get out of the way of the impending crash.
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  #193  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:53
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

According to today's Tagesanzeiger, the SNB foreign currency holding at the end of May 2012 is 303,7 Billion CHF.
Any guesses how much this will grow?
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  #194  
Old 07.06.2012, 14:56
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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That's not what I understood Lex meant.
He said, "There are only so many who can be ahead of the curve." implying that some will (at least try) to get out of the way of the impending crash.

Not worrying about something you have no control over doesn't mean you haven't done the best you can to mitigate your risk. My point is there really is only so much you can do. You either choose correctly or you didn't. The rest is out of you hands if the economy were to go kaboom.
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  #195  
Old 07.06.2012, 15:00
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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But at the end of the day, I'm not going to stock pile toilet paper.
You might regret that if you're heading for a remote island. After Hugo blew through St. Croix, TP was very valuable stuff. If you've ever had to wipe with anything you can find, particularly after the island was denuded, you'll understand.
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  #196  
Old 07.06.2012, 15:13
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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You might regret that if you're heading for a remote island. After Hugo blew through St. Croix, TP was very valuable stuff. If you've ever had to wipe with anything you can find, particularly after the island was denuded, you'll understand.
Alternatively, after the crash one could always go to the nearest bank with a small gold coin and buy several wheel-barrels full of paper euros or francs and use them for the purpose at hand.
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  #197  
Old 07.06.2012, 15:30
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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You might regret that if you're heading for a remote island. After Hugo blew through St. Croix, TP was very valuable stuff. If you've ever had to wipe with anything you can find, particularly after the island was denuded, you'll understand.
I'm not worried. I know how to make paper & soap. I might end up with no money. But I got mad skills.

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  #198  
Old 07.06.2012, 15:37
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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According to today's Tagesanzeiger, the SNB foreign currency holding at the end of May 2012 is 303,7 Billion CHF.
Any guesses how much this will grow?
The flood into Swiss francs is likely to increase.
I forget where I read it now (Telegraph?) but a few days ago there was talk that if Greeks and Spaniards moved their euros to Germany or other EU countries, then in the event of Greece (or Spain) leaving the eurozone their holdings of euros in Germany etc. would ALSO be converted to new drachma, pasetas. To escape that scenario Greeks and Spaniards will therefore be compelled to buy CHF or $s to escape devaluation of their savings.
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  #199  
Old 07.06.2012, 17:54
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Any guesses how much this will grow?
Until they run out of trees or the SNB gives up on the 'floor'. Whichever comes first . I know what I'm tipping.

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According to today's Tagesanzeiger, the SNB foreign currency holding at the end of May 2012 is 303,7 Billion CHF.
In that case, losses of a 20% revaluation could be in the vicinity of $60 Bill CHF. Which is probably realistic because also the gold held by the SNB would then have to be revalued by $10 bill down (from a value of 50bill to 40bill).

All depends on by how much more currencies they buy up - but these figures now in proportion to GDP are already very high.
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  #200  
Old 08.06.2012, 00:17
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Spain downgraded by Fitch from A to BBB.

Who was it who described the eurozone as a slow motio train crash?
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