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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
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  #341  
Old 06.07.2012, 18:46
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Or about 46 thousand CHF for each & every man, woman & child living in Switzerland (if I got the decimal point in the correct position).

If it all went wrong then we could never pay off such a debt??
It's not a debt, as I understand it. The SNB have been buying euros for cash, so they owe no one.

However, when they come to realize their investment and sell their euros, the "floor" would be breached and it I near impossible that they would be able to sell their billions of euros at anything like what they paid for them...

Unless of course a new world is then upon us where the PIGS have left the euro and The euro is essentially a new D-mark and the SNB can sell at 1.50 to the CHF...
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  #342  
Old 06.07.2012, 20:59
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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It's not a debt, as I understand it. The SNB have been buying euros for cash, so they owe no one.
Unfortunately, it would cost us! The Euros counts as part of the bank's reserves, it was to be wiped out ,we'd end up getting hit for it in some form other...

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However, when they come to realize their investment and sell their euros, the "floor" would be breached and it I near impossible that they would be able to sell their billions of euros at anything like what they paid for them...
Every recession eventually comes to an end and unlike most, the SNB can afford to sit on those Euros for years, so I expect it will all come right in the end.

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Unless of course a new world is then upon us where the PIGS have left the euro and The euro is essentially a new D-mark and the SNB can sell at 1.50 to the CHF...
I can't see it happening, these guys need each other much more than any of care to admit. The PIGS benefit for obvious reasons, but Germany industry has had a big boost from be able to trade in an undervalued currency. But in typical EU style it will take them a few years to work through it.
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  #343  
Old 07.07.2012, 12:54
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Unfortunately, it would cost us! The Euros counts as part of the bank's reserves, it was to be wiped out ,we'd end up getting hit for it in some form other...



Every recession eventually comes to an end and unlike most, the SNB can afford to sit on those Euros for years, so I expect it will all come right in the end.



I can't see it happening, these guys need each other much more than any of care to admit. The PIGS benefit for obvious reasons, but Germany industry has had a big boost from be able to trade in an undervalued currency. But in typical EU style it will take them a few years to work through it.
Looks like the brown stuff is getting closer to the fan
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_pr...s20213151.html

The eurozone breakthrough announced last week seems to disappearing in a cloud of uncertainty, push back by Finland & Nederland governments & a general lack of clarity on the important details.
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  #344  
Old 07.07.2012, 16:35
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Looks like the brown stuff is getting closer to the fan
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_pr...s20213151.html

The eurozone breakthrough announced last week seems to disappearing in a cloud of uncertainty, push back by Finland & Nederland governments & a general lack of clarity on the important details.
Like I said it well take several years for these things to be sorted out.

The other thing to remember is that we have been in far worse situations in the past - over 30 years ago, when I was studying economics for the Irish leaving certificate - we were learning stats like inflation: IRL 23%, UK 15%, US 11% and so on....
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  #345  
Old 07.07.2012, 17:56
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Like I said it well take several years for these things to be sorted out.

The other thing to remember is that we have been in far worse situations in the past - over 30 years ago, when I was studying economics for the Irish leaving certificate - we were learning stats like inflation: IRL 23%, UK 15%, US 11% and so on....
& I was paying a mortgage at these rates in UK.

The difference in the past was that countries could devalue their currencies when faced with such inflation; but the southern Europeans do not have this opportunity
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  #346  
Old 08.07.2012, 03:24
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/


Finland would consider leaving the eurozone rather than paying the debts of other countries
Actually, it was a misquote of the Finance minister given how eager the news media is to pick who will be the first to bail. I don't think it would be the worst thing Finland could do, really, if they are the first to jump the HMS Eurotanic.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/urpilainen_mis...ldfire/6209783

At least Finland has the stones to ask for details on the bailouts instead of looking the other way hoping it all goes away.
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  #347  
Old 08.07.2012, 10:55
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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At least Finland has the stones to ask for details on the bailouts instead of looking the other way hoping it all goes away.
exactly!
That is what I was saying, it's like other countries (richer) are not even "allowed" (or not bothered) to question the finances...

a bit like that flatshare metaphore I used.
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  #348  
Old 08.07.2012, 18:25
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Finland would consider leaving the eurozone rather than paying the debts of other countries


haha if you think about how stupid it is:

It's like leaving in a flat share. Your southern Europe origins flatmate not working much, staying at home, buying things and doing lot of expenses.
And you are suppose to be the one who's going to pay, without even the right to question the situation....
Finland (or any other country) voluntarily leaving the Euro is incredibly unlikely (EDIT: Just saw they were mis-quoted which is not surprising). They may threaten it in order to get heard/ changes to the deal but it is more than likely a bluff as the cost of exiting would be many multiples the cost of any bailout. It is estimated that the cost for Germany to leave the Euro is around half a trillion for them alone in the first year or around 25% gdp. There would of course also be Euro and world wide consequences. For a country with a weaker economy (such as Finland or even one of the bailed out countries) the effects would be only slightly less catastrophic but still an enormous sum of money. This is why it is so unlikely to see any country voluntarily withdraw from the Euro (and why Greece hasn't just left/ been kicked out) and with any comments to suggest it being only hot air in the long term.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44405106/Leav...82%AC8_000_UBS

In your analogy (which doesn't really reflect the complexity of the matter) of the flatmates, it's like threatening to leave the flat in order to avoid payment of the bills but losing out on the deposit of many times the sum of the payments to be made and being forced to pay much higher rent on your own. It's much better to use your influence as the breadwinner to force changes onto your flatmates. Yes you will lose out but less so than if you just upped and left.

Changes will be made to the Euro, this is pretty much certain,though what the changes will be is what Finland and every other country are currently trying to work out but I'm pretty sure a stronger more robust euro will emerge.

That said I'm no economist and even if I was I'd still not be able to guarantee anything because to be fair, no one knows for sure what would happen and it's this fear of uncertainty that I think will force the countries to work it out in the long term. It's going to be a slow process I imagine.
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  #349  
Old 08.07.2012, 18:59
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Finland (or any other country) voluntarily leaving the Euro is incredibly unlikely (EDIT: Just saw they were mis-quoted which is not surprising). They may threaten it in order to get heard/ changes to the deal but it is more than likely a bluff as the cost of exiting would be many multiples the cost of any bailout. It is estimated that the cost for Germany to leave the Euro is around half a trillion for them alone in the first year or around 25% gdp.
That in itself is also not a very good thing.
Clearly, there's plenty of "blackmail potential" from the financially not-so-well-off states because of that.
But staying together with your wife just because you can't afford a divorce in most cases does nothing to make the marriage stronger (to draw an often (mis-)used analogy)
You can even draw parallels to the balkan here: the longer you hold the lid onto the pot, the stronger the pressures get. At some point, the lid will just blow-off, uncontrollably.
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  #350  
Old 08.07.2012, 20:26
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

True, it gives some power to the in need countries which isn't altogether a bad thing neither. While I would agree that sometimes its just better to split (as in your divorce analogy) I don't think we can compare the two situations however as (for the moment at least) countries are still better off in the Euro than outside than to your marriage analogy where it's better for one or other of the parties to leave.

As I said before, simple comparisons cannot really be used to explain the current situation as it's not the case that if one flatmate (or partner) does something that it will cause a fairly certain outcome. The problem with the crisis is that even if the Eu manage to do something good, another variable could arise that puts another spanner in the works (whether deliberately or not). There are just too many variables which is why this is going to continue to be a very very slow process unfortunately. Whether this will be enough to stop the lid blowing off is a matter of opinion more than anything. I hope and certainly think it will be enough but that's the problem with opinions, everyone has one
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  #351  
Old 09.07.2012, 02:33
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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& I was paying a mortgage at these rates in UK.

The difference in the past was that countries could devalue their currencies when faced with such inflation; but the southern Europeans do not have this opportunity
Yes but that little bit of theory only works, if you are the only one and even then it is short lived! It's something that is regularly trotted out by economists, but I've yet to see it make any real difference.
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  #352  
Old 11.07.2012, 16:27
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Looks like the brown stuff is getting closer to the fan
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_pr...s20213151.html

The eurozone breakthrough announced last week seems to disappearing in a cloud of uncertainty, push back by Finland & Nederland governments & a general lack of clarity on the important details.
Now it seems this eurozone breakthrough is blocked by Germany's highest court who say "it could take several weeks to decide if this is within the German constitution or should be blocked"
I suppose the court will sooner or later wave the white flag & allow this to go ahead?
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  #353  
Old 11.07.2012, 16:38
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Finland (or any other country) voluntarily leaving the Euro is incredibly unlikely (EDIT: Just saw they were mis-quoted which is not surprising). They may threaten it in order to get heard/ changes to the deal but it is more than likely a bluff as the cost of exiting would be many multiples the cost of any bailout. It is estimated that the cost for Germany to leave the Euro is around half a trillion for them alone in the first year or around 25% gdp. There would of course also be Euro and world wide consequences. For a country with a weaker economy (such as Finland or even one of the bailed out countries) the effects would be only slightly less catastrophic but still an enormous sum of money. This is why it is so unlikely to see any country voluntarily withdraw from the Euro (and why Greece hasn't just left/ been kicked out) and with any comments to suggest it being only hot air in the long term.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44405106/Leav...82%AC8_000_UBS

In your analogy (which doesn't really reflect the complexity of the matter) of the flatmates, it's like threatening to leave the flat in order to avoid payment of the bills but losing out on the deposit of many times the sum of the payments to be made and being forced to pay much higher rent on your own. It's much better to use your influence as the breadwinner to force changes onto your flatmates. Yes you will lose out but less so than if you just upped and left.

Changes will be made to the Euro, this is pretty much certain,though what the changes will be is what Finland and every other country are currently trying to work out but I'm pretty sure a stronger more robust euro will emerge.

That said I'm no economist and even if I was I'd still not be able to guarantee anything because to be fair, no one knows for sure what would happen and it's this fear of uncertainty that I think will force the countries to work it out in the long term. It's going to be a slow process I imagine.
About "It is estimated that the cost for Germany to leave the Euro is around half a trillion for them alone in the first year or around 25% gdp."

I just wonder where these quotes come from & how accurate they are? I mean Germany has had several currency reforms & I do not recall that they cost so much?
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  #354  
Old 11.07.2012, 16:47
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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About "It is estimated that the cost for Germany to leave the Euro is around half a trillion for them alone in the first year or around 25% gdp."

I just wonder where these quotes come from & how accurate they are? I mean Germany has had several currency reforms & I do not recall that they cost so much?
It's a completely made-up figure touted by Euro Federalists to try to scare people into Euro Federalism.
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  #355  
Old 11.07.2012, 16:48
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Now it seems this eurozone breakthrough is blocked by Germany's highest court who say "it could take several weeks to decide if this is within the German constitution or should be blocked"
I suppose the court will sooner or later wave the white flag & allow this to go ahead?
That's what everybody (well, politicians) would like to believe.
But it's not an automatism.

See here: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutsc...-a-843564.html

"The constitution is valid also in times of crisis".

And a longer article in English:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-843560.html

We might come closer to a popular vote about all this.
That would be a semi-elegant way out of for all parties, without anybody losing his face outright.
Because: clearly, the court does not want to take the blame for a failing Euro. Yet, what is currently happening is most likely not covered by the German constitution and the court would have no alternative but to stop ESM et.al.
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  #356  
Old 07.08.2012, 12:08
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I agree.

So the SNB holdings in foreign currency at end of May were circa 300 Billion.
SNB bought circa 40Bn in foreign currency in July pushing up their foreign reserves to 406Bn; almost double from 2011 & about 1.5Bn per day since end of May! .
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  #357  
Old 27.11.2012, 14:38
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Now it seems this eurozone breakthrough is blocked by Germany's highest court who say "it could take several weeks to decide if this is within the German constitution or should be blocked"
I suppose the court will sooner or later wave the white flag & allow this to go ahead?
Well the German court gave the go-ahead in September & now Europe's highest court (European Court of Justice) ruled today that the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent euro rescue fund created to try and prevent repeats of the Greek debt crisis, does not breach EU treaties.

No surprise then...
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  #358  
Old 27.11.2012, 17:37
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Well the German court gave the go-ahead in September & now Europe's highest court (European Court of Justice) ruled today that the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent euro rescue fund created to try and prevent repeats of the Greek debt crisis, does not breach EU treaties.

No surprise then...
That's right, and it looks like all decisions taken by the West's governments will be those leading to the eventual destruction of the Western monetary system.
I wonder how long it will take to take everything down? This time of year is the time for predictions - anyone fancy having a guess?
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  #359  
Old 30.11.2012, 02:03
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

The ESM probably doesn't have enough money to save everyone who wants or needs saving. And...Greece still isn't out of the woods yet - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...k-impasse.html Private investors, i.e. big investment funds for 401ks and other pension schemes, surprisingly are not wanting to take further haircuts on a clearly dead horse at least in the near-range of 5-10 years.

Better enjoy Christmas this year as if the dummies in Washington don't get their shit together with the 'fiscal cliff' along with the absolute mess the whole eurozone has become, together they may make for a very depressing 2013.
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Old 30.11.2012, 10:58
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The ESM probably doesn't have enough money to save everyone who wants or needs saving. And...Greece still isn't out of the woods yet
The "situation" with Greece will not change until the next elections for the Bundestag in Germany in 2013.
That's how long they will be trying to drag along and beat that dead horse, pretending it's still alive.
Similarly, the US will find another lame last-minute compromise on the fiscal cliff question.

As such, I think 2013 could be more or less the same as 2012, with politicians muddling along as clueless as the rest of us. 2014, when those houses of cards are probably going to crumble, will be more interesting.
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