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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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  #381  
Old 05.09.2013, 22:48
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Time to pull this thread out of cold storage!!

Greece faces a funding gap of up to €11bn in second half of 2014, but Mario Draghi (ECB head) says today ECB will not take part in any debt restructuring.

So who will pay? Germany? Probably decision needs to be made this year

euro dropped about 1 cent versus the US$ today
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  #382  
Old 05.09.2013, 23:01
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Time to pull this thread out of cold storage!!

Greece faces a funding gap of up to €11bn in second half of 2014, but Mario Draghi (ECB head) says today ECB will not take part in any debt restructuring.

So who will pay? Germany? Probably decision needs to be made this year

euro dropped about 1 cent versus the US$ today
Greece has served its purpose with the experimental introduction of the bank bail-in. Now that's been introduced into the legislation of other countries Greece can fall and be forgotten.
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  #383  
Old 05.09.2013, 23:12
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Greece has served its purpose with the experimental introduction of the bank bail-in. Now that's been introduced into the legislation of other countries Greece can fall and be forgotten.
Election day is coming-up in Germany on 22th of September.

Judgement Day ;-)

I honestly never thought they could drag it on for so long.
But they did, and we'll all pay the price at some point.
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  #384  
Old 05.09.2013, 23:28
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Ever since I can remember all the British press do is drown about how the EEC, EU, Euro, take your pick is going to fail and yet here we are almost 40 years later and it is still there....

What I'd really love to know though is to what level the UK banks and similar institutions have been following this line and have bet against the EMU/Euro etc and just how much has been lost or gained in the process?
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  #385  
Old 05.09.2013, 23:33
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Ever since I can remember all the British press do is drown about how the EEC, EU, Euro, take your pick is going to fail and yet here we are almost 40 years later and it is still there....

What I'd really love to know though is to what level the UK banks and similar institutions have been following this line and have bet against the EMU/Euro etc and just how much has been lost or gained in the process?
For every deal there is a winner & a looser! Some shorting is just hedging in any case. Big losses only occur when something unexpected happens, like the UK leaving the ERM on black Wednesday .
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  #386  
Old 18.09.2013, 10:57
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Election day is coming-up in Germany on 22th of September.

Judgement Day ;-)

I honestly never thought they could drag it on for so long.
But they did, and we'll all pay the price at some point.
So who will be in the new German Government & what will be their EU policy.

Some major challenges ahead!
  • Greece & Portugal likely will need new bailouts with possibility of losses for existing bond holders.
  • Italy Government is unstable
  • Lack of agreement on the EU "banking union"
  • The idea of having binding contracts on budget performance between governments & EU with penalties for failure is running into trouble even with the governments who originally strongly supported this approach, e.g. France & Holland
I suppose they will find ways to keep kicking the can down the road - man's ingenuity is amazing.
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  #387  
Old 29.09.2013, 00:39
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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So who will be in the new German Government & what will be their EU policy.


Some major challenges ahead!
  • Greece & Portugal likely will need new bailouts with possibility of losses for existing bond holders.
  • Italy Government is unstable
  • Lack of agreement on the EU "banking union"
  • The idea of having binding contracts on budget performance between governments & EU with penalties for failure is running into trouble even with the governments who originally strongly supported this approach, e.g. France & Holland
I suppose they will find ways to keep kicking the can down the road - man's ingenuity is amazing.
Looks like Berlusconi has pulled the plug on the Italian govt.
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  #388  
Old 14.10.2013, 20:06
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

The Front National is now the most popular party in France with 24pc according to a new Ifop poll.
This party is committed to withdrawal from the euro, the restoration of French franc, and the complete destruction of monetary union & has just defeated the establishment in the Brignoles run-off election.
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  #389  
Old 15.10.2013, 11:33
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

In the meantime Euro is still there...

Seems that the situation, slowly degrading, but no longer has "obvious" significant events... (for example another, well visible bank crash).

Well, there are some relatively significant events (such as Alcatel firing 10K employees) and others, but on the scale of things they are less visible and less displayed in the media...

But I'd still feel that leaving CH to work in the Eurozone, is still some kind of economical suicide-or at worse, a big risky gamble...

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  #390  
Old 15.10.2013, 11:37
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Front National is now the most popular party in France with 24pc according to a new Ifop poll.
This party is committed to withdrawal from the euro, the restoration of French franc, and the complete destruction of monetary union & has just defeated the establishment in the Brignoles run-off election.
Well, if they can somehow also reduce France's household-deficit and make their industry more competitive (just devaluing your currency isn't going to cut it, long-term) , I don't think anybody would complain.
But deep down, I just don't believe it's going to happen ;-)
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  #391  
Old 15.10.2013, 12:01
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Well, if they can somehow also reduce France's household-deficit and make their industry more competitive (just devaluing your currency isn't going to cut it, long-term) , I don't think anybody would complain.
But deep down, I just don't believe it's going to happen ;-)
Somebody recently posted that one of the IMF ideas was to impose a 10% tax on all EU savers/savings to reduce Eurozone deficits. I also don't believe this is going to happen?
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  #392  
Old 15.10.2013, 12:16
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Well, if they can somehow also reduce France's household-deficit and make their industry more competitive (just devaluing your currency isn't going to cut it, long-term) , I don't think anybody would complain.
But deep down, I just don't believe it's going to happen ;-)
The old method that the French (and the southern Europeans) always successfully used WAS devaluing. The reason this method always worked in the past was since the French et al are less competitive, compared say to the Germans, by devaluing the currency the workers wages are dropped in a hidden manner so that they don't complain (too loudly). This is clearly only possible if the currencies are independent.
The reason the FN won't gain power is because there is a deficit of democracy in the EU. The Eurocrats of the Politbüro in Brussels simply WILL NOT allow it.

Last edited by spalebärg; 15.10.2013 at 12:41.
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  #393  
Old 15.10.2013, 12:27
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Somebody recently posted that one of the IMF ideas was to impose a 10% tax on all EU savers/savings to reduce Eurozone deficits. I also don't believe this is going to happen?
http://goldsilverworlds.com/money-cu...s-in-eurozone/
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  #394  
Old 15.10.2013, 12:48
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Somebody recently posted that one of the IMF ideas was to impose a 10% tax on all EU savers/savings to reduce Eurozone deficits. I also don't believe this is going to happen?

Haha.
Or rather, not.
As people from Cyprus could attest....

New rule of thumb for EU-crazyness: "If you think "No way..." - think again!
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  #395  
Old 15.10.2013, 12:49
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

From that report
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... such a tax, if it is implemented before avoidance is possible ...
Avoidance by the super rich is possible by owning gold, land and similar (outside of the EU). If, or when, this is done the removal of capital from the system will contribute to the problems of big banks ... which shows the shortcomings of this policy. Like in Cyprus only those who don't get out in time get clobbered.
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  #396  
Old 15.10.2013, 13:00
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Front National is now the most popular party in France with 24pc according to a new Ifop poll.
This party is committed to withdrawal from the euro, the restoration of French franc, and the complete destruction of monetary union & has just defeated the establishment in the Brignoles run-off election.
Let's not overreact. This byelection was for a seat at the local Conseil General, roughly equivalent to County level (Departement). The far right have been winning seats around the Var area for decades, usually not holding on to them. The village this happened in is run by the Communists which is why the Front National won more easily, that and the record unpopularity of the current Socialist gov.

One poll isn't exactly conclusive but both the UMP and the PS are facing an uphill struggle in the upcoming municipal and Europarliament elections, since the UMP is in the middle of a power struggle and its electorate is further on the right than its politicians, and the PS, well, they have Hollande. The Front National is still the antiestablishment vote mostly, they're trying to build up a new cadre of electable youngsters but they're nowhere near getting close to meaningful power by any measure. So business as usual!
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  #397  
Old 15.10.2013, 15:09
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

My understanding of what happened in Cyprus was that only people who had accounts in the banks that were going under were "shaved" for the bail out. If that is correct, it means that the money for bailing out the specific bank was taken first out of deposits in that bank, rather than everyone supporting the bank so the people that had money in it could recoup it in its entirety. That isn't as harsh as giving a hair cut on everyone (although it is still a bit harsh in my opinion).
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  #398  
Old 15.10.2013, 15:19
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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My understanding of what happened in Cyprus was that only people who had accounts in the banks that were going under were "shaved" for the bail out.
Bail out was for two out of the three major banks.
It affected most citizens (with money).

Would be like UBS, CS and ZKB here in ZH.
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  #399  
Old 15.10.2013, 15:26
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Bail out was for two out of the three major banks.
It affected most citizens (with money).

Would be like UBS, CS and ZKB here in ZH.
I think it affected most "customers" not necessarily citizens.
That is why at the time, they were many people flying to Cyprus to take all their money in emergency and close their accounts*.

*well they tried because the bank had closed preventing people to take their own money.
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  #400  
Old 15.10.2013, 15:28
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Bail out was for two out of the three major banks.
It affected most citizens (with money).

Would be like UBS, CS and ZKB here in ZH.
I understand that, but when considering the precedent it set, one has to keep in mind that for the same to happen in Portugal, Italy, Greece or Spain, some of the "national" banks would have to fail first, and then people with money in those banks - instead of getting no cash out of it at all, which would possibly be the case in an unregulated country (I don't know how it would work in the U.S. for example), get a "hair cut" and do recover some cash.

In the EU I think most countries have some kind of guarantee for deposits up to 100 kEUR to get the money back 100%. If I recall correctly, the hair cut in Cyprus did respect that guarantee in the end (although it was discussed to hair cut amounts below that threshold).
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