Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Help & tips > Finance/banking/taxation
View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #401  
Old 15.10.2013, 15:50
Freebooter's Avatar
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Baden-ish
Posts: 178
Groaned at 8 Times in 6 Posts
Thanked 154 Times in 75 Posts
Freebooter has an excellent reputationFreebooter has an excellent reputationFreebooter has an excellent reputationFreebooter has an excellent reputation
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
Bail out was for two out of the three major banks.
It affected most citizens (with money).

Would be like UBS, CS and ZKB here in ZH.
I would have said Julius Baer or Vontobel instead of ZKB, but that wouldn't change the broad accuracy of your comment.

However, there's very much more to the Swiss economy than very dodgy money in off shore deposits.
If I were a pensive German voter (bit of a leap of faith, I know), I wouldn't be v happy at my govt having to pay the lion's share of a bailout of an off-shore financial economy based almost entirely on dodgy Russian money (that had sneaked into the EU via various loopholes).

... the same way I wouldn't be happy, I suppose, living in rented accommodation and working until 67 before I can start receiving pension payments whilst across the border my French colleagues retire on full state pesnions at 58 (and sell their property to Brits for hard Pounds), and my Italian colleagues sit on mountains of private wealth whilst their country is governed by clowns and my govt is expected to guaranty their public debt (130% of gdp).....

ah, the wonders of the Eurozone!

lest anyone think I sympathise totally wiz ze Tschermans, can I just remind people that Germany has probably benefitted more fromthe Euro than any other country, and probably stands the most to lose should it collapse.
If you doubt the latter ask yourself what countries would be able to afford German products if the country's currency reverted to the D-mark or even a so-called 'northern Euro?' Thanks to Helmut Kohl's (remember him?) not heeding his advisors but taking the plunge (and when he jumped into a pool, the backsplash was pretty big), Germany has to save the Euro to save itself
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Freebooter for this useful post:
  #402  
Old 31.10.2013, 01:55
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Mediobanca is Italy's second biggest bank
Mediobanca recent report said "Italy entered a "negative productivity spiral" only after it fixed the pre-EMU exchange rates in 1996. Refusing to acknowledge this "means denying the evidence". It accused the EU authorities of forcing the entire burden of post-crisis adjustment on the weaker Club Med states, of refusing to see the risk of a "negative recessionary spiral" in the South, or to see that these countries cannot stabilise their debt trajectories with a minimum of growth. The North must "meet the periphery halfway".
The report said the risk is a repetition of Argentina's fate as the dollar-peg fell apart in 2001. It cited the so-called "Frenkel Cycle" as it moves into its final seventh phase of "collapse", the brutal denouement of every fixed-exchange rate system and every monetary union that fails to meet the four basic conditions of an optimal currency area. These are labour mobility across borders, wage and price flexibility, fiscal transfers and aligned business cycles. The euro area meets none of them."
Does not look so good?
Reply With Quote
  #403  
Old 31.10.2013, 08:29
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 11,472
Groaned at 246 Times in 157 Posts
Thanked 13,326 Times in 5,676 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
Bail out was for two out of the three major banks.
It affected most citizens (with money).

Would be like UBS, CS and ZKB here in ZH.
Phew. Glad I'm with PostFinance!
Reply With Quote
  #404  
Old 31.10.2013, 09:32
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
Phew. Glad I'm with PostFinance!
This will be the Postfinance that is currently rumoured to be in the cross hairs of the US tax investigation?
& they are a candidate for being privatised
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #405  
Old 08.11.2013, 00:07
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

European Central Bank in a surprise move today cut 0.25% from their interest rates - theoretically the SNB should follow suit & cut to a negative rate but they did not change after the last ECB cut so probably will not this time.
Also theoretically this cut should drive up the value of the Swiss Franc versus the euro but nothing follows logic in this market any more.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #406  
Old 08.11.2013, 10:29
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Ecublens, Lausanne, VD
Posts: 49
Groaned at 0 Times in 0 Posts
Thanked 31 Times in 20 Posts
photonion has no particular reputation at present
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

We live in interesting times, don't we?

Maybe in the end we see Switzerland fully adopting Euro
I don't know how they can keep being competitive, if CHF becomes more expensive... Interesting times ahead for sure...
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank photonion for this useful post:
  #407  
Old 08.11.2013, 14:20
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Baselland
Posts: 581
Groaned at 9 Times in 7 Posts
Thanked 390 Times in 244 Posts
spalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
We live in interesting times, don't we?

Maybe in the end we see Switzerland fully adopting Euro
I don't know how they can keep being competitive, if CHF becomes more expensive... Interesting times ahead for sure...
Since the CHF is nowadays an almost a 100% derivative of the Euro there is no need to adopt the Euro. It would only be a political statement and right now produce too much political fallout.

Since the CHF is almost equivalent to the Euro there is more a need to balance the interest rates which is now being achieved by dropping the Euro rate closer to the CHF value.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank spalebärg for this useful post:
  #408  
Old 08.11.2013, 15:28
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
Since the CHF is nowadays an almost a 100% derivative of the Euro there is no need to adopt the Euro. It would only be a political statement and right now produce too much political fallout.

Since the CHF is almost equivalent to the Euro there is more a need to balance the interest rates which is now being achieved by dropping the Euro rate closer to the CHF value.


About "by dropping the Euro rate closer to the CHF value" egg/chicken, chicken/egg etc.


Not sure Mario Draghi would like his convoluted theories & plans reduced to "tracking Swiss rates"


Assuming he reads EF which has a vanishingly small probability
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #409  
Old 08.11.2013, 17:06
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Zürich
Posts: 777
Groaned at 2 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 402 Times in 247 Posts
ChrisNeedsToKnow has a reputation beyond reputeChrisNeedsToKnow has a reputation beyond reputeChrisNeedsToKnow has a reputation beyond reputeChrisNeedsToKnow has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
Since the CHF is nowadays an almost a 100% derivative of the Euro...
I would be very careful in calling the CHF a "derivative" of the Euro.

The "only" two things which happened are:
  1. Euro becoming instable and maybe breaking up (since ~2009)
  2. SNB introducing a floor (not a peg) at 1.20, because too many stakeholders escaped from the € into the "safe" Franc, leading to a massive over-valuation (which is still ongoing)
Takeaways:
  1. Should the Euro stabilise, the Franc will gradually go down against the €, possibly towards its former longterm band between ~1.50 and ~1.70
  2. Should the Euro collapse, SNB can revoke the 1.20 ceiling at any time, and an fx-rate of 0.9 is possible within a few hours.
Just because it looks sort-of-stable right now, doesn´t mean it really is. It´s a massive bet, which I wouldn´t call a derivative.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank ChrisNeedsToKnow for this useful post:
  #410  
Old 20.12.2013, 16:35
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Seems that Standard & Poors have taken away the EU's AAA rating and reduced it to AA+.

Probably will not mean anything important changes but will generate some red faces in the EU?
Reply With Quote
  #411  
Old 20.12.2013, 21:29
Bananahead's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Zurich
Posts: 504
Groaned at 10 Times in 9 Posts
Thanked 252 Times in 119 Posts
Bananahead has made some interesting contributions
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
Seems that Standard & Poors have taken away the EU's AAA rating and reduced it to AA+.

Probably will not mean anything important changes but will generate some red faces in the EU?


And it's all the UK's fault.


"The European Union has lost its AAA credit rating after the Standard and Poor ratings agency warned that David Cameron’s referendum promise and increased squabbling over Brussels spending raised doubts over its future. "
Reply With Quote
  #412  
Old 20.12.2013, 22:37
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 2,458
Groaned at 50 Times in 31 Posts
Thanked 2,231 Times in 1,225 Posts
rainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
Seems that Standard & Poors have taken away the EU's AAA rating and reduced it to AA+.

Probably will not mean anything important changes but will generate some red faces in the EU?
As will (well, might - if anybody reads it outside of Switzerland) Mr Burkhalter's fear that the EU might just implode after the UK leaves the party:
http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/...story/25686618

If the EU implodes, the resulting blackhole will either swallow Switzerland directly, or we'll get atomized while crossing the event-horizon....
Reply With Quote
  #413  
Old 18.09.2014, 14:13
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

This thread has long been quiet.

The ECB just offered banks cheap long term 4 year loans at circa 0.05% for 400Bn euros but the banks only took circa 82Bn.
Do the banks really think it will be so difficult to lend out money at higher rates?
Reply With Quote
  #414  
Old 06.10.2014, 13:22
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Sentix group are forecasting the eurozone may fall back into recession.
Draghi (ECB head) has done a good job of "talking up" the euro but actions are always stronger than words
Reply With Quote
  #415  
Old 07.10.2014, 20:56
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
Sentix group are forecasting the eurozone may fall back into recession.
Draghi (ECB head) has done a good job of "talking up" the euro but actions are always stronger than words
Now the IMF are also forecasting the eurozone may fall back into recession.
Reply With Quote
  #416  
Old 07.10.2014, 22:02
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

And the price of Brent crude oil is hovering around Jan 2011 levels.
Reply With Quote
  #417  
Old 06.11.2014, 15:00
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 7,516
Groaned at 164 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 8,528 Times in 4,671 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

ECB left interest rates unchanged today, see here.

Eurozone growth forecasts are also being slashed.
Reply With Quote
  #418  
Old 06.11.2014, 20:35
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Vaud
Posts: 173
Groaned at 1 Time in 1 Post
Thanked 99 Times in 56 Posts
MrMert is considered knowledgeableMrMert is considered knowledgeableMrMert is considered knowledgeable
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

The euro continues to drop on FX exchanges with same thing happening to the USD-CHF. I have to pay expenses for my parents US hospitalization and nursing care and think I have to convert money now to dollars before it goes from .97 to past parity. I am not expert on these matters but every one seems to be betting that the USD will continue to climb against the euro and the CHF.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank MrMert for this useful post:
  #419  
Old 29.11.2014, 12:42
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Baselland
Posts: 581
Groaned at 9 Times in 7 Posts
Thanked 390 Times in 244 Posts
spalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Netherlands, Germany Have Euro Disaster Plan - Possible Return to Guilder and Mark
Zero Hedge article 11/28/2014

The Dutch and German governments were preparing emergency plans for a return to their national currencies at the height of the euro crisis it has emerged. These plans remain in place.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...ilder-and-mark

If this does happen the Swiss will be standing around looking silly with egg on their face after having subsidized the Euro to how many millions of newly printed Francs?
Reply With Quote
  #420  
Old 29.11.2014, 18:32
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 2,458
Groaned at 50 Times in 31 Posts
Thanked 2,231 Times in 1,225 Posts
rainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond repute
Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Quote:
View Post
If this does happen the Swiss will be standing around looking silly with egg on their face after having subsidized the Euro to how many millions of newly printed Francs?
Unfortunately, it's not millions, but billions, with a "b".
174 billion, more or less:
http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/balsnb/p...r_SNB.book.pdf
(And 142 billion USD, the rest is really peanuts).

As per end of October 2014.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank rainer_d for this useful post:
Reply




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
B permit - how long does applying take at the kreisburo? emmabiasiolo Permits/visas/government 5 23.06.2011 15:37
How Does the Falling Euro Affect the CHF? esto Finance/banking/taxation 27 18.06.2010 20:02
How long does it take for the application process? Florin Employment 2 29.05.2009 15:44
How long does it take getting the Ausweis? dbg Permits/visas/government 3 12.04.2007 23:51


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 16:21.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0