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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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  #441  
Old 06.01.2015, 14:15
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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And Fatman, I'll believe a 60+% appreciation in a first world currency against another first world currency when I see it. 100CHF says USD won't be 1.5 CHF before 2020?
Mid-2001 the USD reached its long term top against the CHF at 1.82, in Aug 2011 it cost as little as 0.72 CHF. In other words the CHF appreciated against the USD by more than 150% in just a little over ten years.

Inversely, the USD appreaciated by 40% against the CHF since August 2011. And 1.15 would mean 60% increase, I don't think that should be ruled out, actually we may see that fairly soon.
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  #442  
Old 06.01.2015, 22:22
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Tomorrow the SNB should announce the status of their foreign reserves.
If it shows as widely expected they bought many more billions of euros then there is likely to be strong pressure to move from 1.20 to 1.10; interesting times
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  #443  
Old 06.01.2015, 22:38
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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...to move from 1.20 to 1.10; interesting times
Interesting indeed.

I think switching to 1.10 would be suicide in two ways:
  1. The bunch they bought so far would devaluate in CHF, the SNB´s CHF-balance would look miserable.
  2. With the 1.20 minimum they wanted to buy stability and export-competition. They would lose on both practical ends.
My prediction:

Pressure: yes. Will they change something: no.

(As per any prediction, I accept should I be wrong. But only time will tell.)
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  #444  
Old 09.01.2015, 12:45
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Odd world.

According to the FT today investors have moved 1.2 Trillion euros into euro assets paying negative interest, link here but you may need to be a subscriber.

There must be an awful lot of fear out there
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  #445  
Old 11.01.2015, 21:07
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Odd world.

According to the FT today investors have moved 1.2 Trillion euros into euro assets paying negative interest, link here but you may need to be a subscriber.

There must be an awful lot of fear out there
Since the ECB imposed a negative 0.1% interest on liquidity (i.e. it charges 0.1%, if memory serves for any amount above €10mln per bank), it's profitable for banks to buy very secure country debt up to a price that implies the same negative interest.

So it's not investors but banks. And not because of fear.

As a consequnce the SNB was forced to also impose negative interest to reduce upwards pressure on the Swissie. I don't think this was their last move, quite the contrary. Unfortunately the longer SNB wait with lifting the € limit the deeper the hole will get they find themselves in, and the real estate problem will grow along with it.
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  #446  
Old 11.01.2015, 23:37
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

See:
http://www.20min.ch/finance/news/sto...r-SNB-26239931

It's especially true if you have enough cash to cover more than 20% of the sales-price of the object.
The rates even for a fixed ten year mortgage are then so low that they almost look like a libor mortgage.
Just go to homegate, select any property at around 900k, say you've got 300k cash and a 120k income.
It's surreal.
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  #447  
Old 14.01.2015, 00:38
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Looks like the EU are backing off from their fight with Italy and France about their failure to meet the EU budget guidelines.
EU announced "clarified" guidelines today which will give these countries scope to kick the can down the road for a some more years.
So much for all the brave talk some years ago about big fines for the countries that failed to meet the EU budget guidelines.

ECB still have cold feet about bond buying to stave off deflation
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  #448  
Old 15.01.2015, 12:13
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The lower the Euro goes the lower our beloved CHF goes. Outside of Euroland we are getting hammered by exchange rate differentials (or profiting if savings/capital is still in GBP/USD/AUS etc). Over last year CHF fell around 4% against GBP and more than 11% against USD. EUR/USD is at a 9 year low.

The more this slide down that CHF experiences hand in hand with the EUR, the more I think that this 1.2 peg that's there at the moment is crazy. Is there any chance that they may move the peg down do you think?
What did I say? Bye bye goes the "minimum"
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  #449  
Old 15.01.2015, 12:28
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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...As per any prediction, I accept should I be wrong. But only time will tell...
I was (very) wrong!
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  #450  
Old 18.01.2015, 21:43
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Back in May I exchanged a chunk of my CHF into USD, GBP and later in September a portion into EUR because I imagined the "peg" was here as Swiss imports would suffer too much without it, and I was hopeful that the Euro crysis had seen the worse days.

Now I'm just glad I only converted about half of the CHF I had then!
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  #451  
Old 28.01.2015, 21:55
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Today the German Bundesbank "theoretically" approved the IMF idea to impose a one-off 10% levy on personal assets to solve debt problems in eurozone countries (excluding Germany of course).
Although it was mentioned such a levy in Germany would raise ca. 230 Billion euros.
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  #452  
Old 28.01.2015, 22:38
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Today the German Bundesbank "theoretically" approved the IMF idea to impose a one-off 10% levy on personal assets to solve debt problems in eurozone countries (excluding Germany of course).
Although it was mentioned such a levy in Germany would raise ca. 230 Billion euros.
Great. Let's all pay a 10% levy to fund banker bonuses.
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  #453  
Old 24.03.2015, 01:12
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Great. Let's all pay a 10% levy to fund banker bonuses.
Eurozone unemployment is currently just over 11%. The European Central Bank latest forecast for unemployment at the end of 2017 when the economy is supposed to have recovered is around 10%.

I suppose they will keep finding ways to kick the euro "can" down the road?
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  #454  
Old 29.03.2015, 20:50
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Found this:

http://imgur.com/gallery/h86wvl8


last one is particularly hilarious.
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