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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
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  #41  
Old 10.12.2011, 14:42
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Euro as a currency will be with us long after Jan 1st. It is very expensive to change a currency and it takes a lot of time for each country to not only print and mint enough replacement currency and get it positioned to go into circulation but it also takes a lot of time to financially prepare for such a conversion, it just can't happen this quickly without causing financial meltdowns.
The Germans, good planners as they are, already have a stock of DM just in case:

http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-dolla...of-euro-chaos/
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  #42  
Old 10.12.2011, 14:43
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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But this isnt just a problem of debt to GDP alone - Spains for now, is actually lower than most other European nations. Its more the structural problems i.e. building a welfare state with other peoples money......... until all of a sudden there is nothing left to pay the promises. In the meantime private sector is being strangled, but government sector keeps growing, and thats unsustainable.

Japans debt to GDP grows because it still is able to get a source of funding - internally from its own citizens. But you cant look at that on its own and say 'well, Japans is 200%, therefore no problems till we get there'. Thats the whole issue here. A few years ago, nobody even cared about debt, because funding was raining down from the sky. People only seem to take note until all of a sudden it stops or gets expensive - like now. Who said Japan wont/doesnt have problems? Japans problems are actually quite huge themselves. The demographics are a disaster and most of their debt is to their own citizens. That in itself is not a problem until the citizens begin to retire and need to use that capital themselves. Its the trend thats important here and its getting worse. I have heard all the stuff about debt not being a problem for years - its not a problem, until it is

Euro area at 97% (if it is so) is completely irrelevant when European banks havnt been recapitilised - lets revisit that figure once they are. Germanys banks alone are leveraged at over 30 to 1 - scary stuff.
I am not saying there isn't an economic disaster in the long run waiting to happen.

I am saying this has nothing to do with the Eurozone as a common currency bloc; and everything to do with the monetary and fiscal policy responses that the governments of developed nations have taken over the last 30 years. All of them, including Japan, USA, Europe, have been irresponsible and driven by short term political objectives, not to mention a total lack of common sense.
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  #43  
Old 10.12.2011, 14:55
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

I cannot tell you exactly how the crisis scenario is going to ensue and unveil its paws but surely nothing has changed so far in my modest household and as I'm still employed I manage to pay my taxes, make ends meet like any other average bloke. I hear about the crisis in Eurozone everyday but somehow figures of sale in our company are still reasonable and we keep on going strong. Should I look at the global picture overall or forget about the whole thing until this political propaganda to make people save more will get finally settled. We live in overconsumed world and time to tighten the belt, I always said. The EUR zone has been established once and no retreat no surrender. Time to fix the broken oxwagon and ride on. No one will want to carry financial burden to convert back to their respective currencies. Back to square one is not an option.
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  #44  
Old 10.12.2011, 15:01
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I am not saying there isn't an economic disaster in the long run waiting to happen.

I am saying this has nothing to do with the Eurozone as a common currency bloc; and everything to do with the monetary and fiscal policy responses that the governments of developed nations have taken over the last 30 years. All of them, including Japan, USA, Europe, have been irresponsible and driven by short term political objectives, not to mention a total lack of common sense.
No probs, thats fair enough. I was only referring to European issues being also economic issues - which to me is also the core of the problem where we are. The Euro in its current form is just making it even more inflexible. i.e. countries were able to continue funding deficits at low rates, countries cant devalue etc etc.

Last edited by Lex; 10.12.2011 at 15:02. Reason: fixed error
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  #45  
Old 10.12.2011, 20:30
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

I have to say I am rather surprised by the number of optimists voting for the euro toughing it out. I'd be curious to know what might be behind that optimism if anyone is interested in sharing since nothing I've been reading, granted I am not an economist or involved in finance, has been giving me the impression that hope or optimism is warranted at the moment. I think, even if every member country has the will, it will still take far too long to get each country to have a referendum, get all the legalese worked out and such to keep it afloat.

In a way, part of me thinks a collapse would be a welcome flushing of the stygian stables that are the banks of the 2000s, but the realist in me knows that I don't really want to experience a year or more of complete societal chaos in exchange for that cleansing and I don't think either writing down the debts or entering into austerity rules will achieve much success either. I suppose if this were a novel, I'd be looking for the happy ending while knowing it can't possibly end well.
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  #46  
Old 10.12.2011, 21:00
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Germans, good planners as they are, already have a stock of DM just in case:

http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-dolla...of-euro-chaos/
For the changeover there is no reason why Germany could not use ITS euros and reject the euros of other countries. Don't forget the euro paper money is NOT the same for each country. The German euros have an "X" at the beginning of the serial number.
Whenever I have bought euros for shopping across the border I have always made a point of using up the Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and then the Italian euros first and spent the French and German ones at the end.
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  #47  
Old 10.12.2011, 21:04
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I have to say I am rather surprised by the number of optimists voting for the euro toughing it out. I'd be curious to know what might be behind that optimism if anyone is interested in sharing since nothing I've been reading, granted I am not an economist or involved in finance, has been giving me the impression that hope or optimism is warranted at the moment. I think, even if every member country has the will, it will still take far too long to get each country to have a referendum, get all the legalese worked out and such to keep it afloat.

In a way, part of me thinks a collapse would be a welcome flushing of the stygian stables that are the banks of the 2000s, but the realist in me knows that I don't really want to experience a year or more of complete societal chaos in exchange for that cleansing and I don't think either writing down the debts or entering into austerity rules will achieve much success either. I suppose if this were a novel, I'd be looking for the happy ending while knowing it can't possibly end well.
I think the euro will survive - because I am a pessimist.
That might sound like a contradiction but is explained by the fact that I WANT the euro to collapse.
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  #48  
Old 10.12.2011, 22:04
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I am not saying there isn't an economic disaster in the long run waiting to happen.

I am saying this has nothing to do with the Eurozone as a common currency bloc; and everything to do with the monetary and fiscal policy responses that the governments of developed nations have taken over the last 30 years. All of them, including Japan, USA, Europe, have been irresponsible and driven by short term political objectives, not to mention a total lack of common sense.
About "I am saying this has nothing to do with the Eurozone as a common currency bloc"

Ah but it does; before the euro when countries got into financial difficulties they simply devalued their currencies, like UK & USA are doing now.

But if you are, for example, Greece or Ireland then you cannot devalue your currency as you want to because it is a common currency so you have to introduce highly unpopular saving measures to avoid dragging the euro value down for everybody.
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  #49  
Old 10.12.2011, 22:24
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I have to say I am rather surprised by the number of optimists voting for the euro toughing it out. I'd be curious to know what might be behind that optimism if anyone is interested in sharing since nothing I've been reading, granted I am not an economist or involved in finance, has been giving me the impression that hope or optimism is warranted at the moment.
In my case it is not about optimism, it is about dealing with the realities of the situation...

First of all from a legal point of view there is no practical way to dismantle the Eurozone - what may people don't seem to understand is that the treaties that establish the EU are very unique in that they are agreements between the peoples of Europe, not the nations and as such they confer rights and obligations on individual citizens. Unlike other international agreements, in the case of the EU treaties the governments act as agents and as such can be brought to task by any citizen of the EU, not just the citizens that that government represents! So in theory at least, any individual citizen can throw a spanner in the works and bring the whole thing to a halt! The only way to get around this is a treaty change and on average that takes about two years to negotiate and get agreement on.

There are also many economic reasons why a break up would be almost impossible to achieve and these have been discussed in magazines such as the Economist and financial research articles such as those published by UBS and so on.

For the 17 members of the Eurozone there really is not alternative but to go on and form a single economic unit, which is what they more or less confirmed last Friday.
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  #50  
Old 13.12.2011, 19:04
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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About "I am saying this has nothing to do with the Eurozone as a common currency bloc"

Ah but it does; before the euro when countries got into financial difficulties they simply devalued their currencies, like UK & USA are doing now.

But if you are, for example, Greece or Ireland then you cannot devalue your currency as you want to because it is a common currency so you have to introduce highly unpopular saving measures to avoid dragging the euro value down for everybody.
No that's not the reason. The ability to devalue your sovereign issue is a tool not a cure-all. In the case of the Euro, those who have believed the single currency to be fundamentally flawed for political reasons, were just using the precarious fiscal positions of the PIGS as a useful justification to speculate against the Euro.
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  #51  
Old 13.12.2011, 20:56
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

[QUOTE=poptart;1430879]I'd be curious to know what might be behind that optimism if anyone is interested in sharing since nothing I've been reading, granted I am not an economist or involved in finance, has been giving me the impression that hope or optimism is warranted at the moment.

Fear is exciting - sells more.
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  #52  
Old 13.12.2011, 21:06
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Germans, good planners as they are, already have a stock of DM just in case:

http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-dolla...of-euro-chaos/
Is there actually any evidence that there is any truth in this, or is it just scare mongering?

Most rumours pertaining to this were circulating in the first half of 2010. They thus don't really have much to do with the present situation.

And just what would Germany benefit? A floated DM would become a safe-haven currency and people from all over the world would be rushing to buy it. That's basically the reason the CHF is so expensive and it's not doing the economy any good. Germany would have the same problem. It may be in the interest of the poorer countries to see the Euro collpase but it's not in Germany's interest.
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  #53  
Old 13.12.2011, 21:23
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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And just what would Germany benefit? A floated DM would become a safe-haven currency and people from all over the world would be rushing to buy it. That's basically the reason the CHF is so expensive and it's not doing the economy any good. Germany would have the same problem.
With that criteria, and in order to be even more competitive, Germany may do well by adopting the Zimbabwean dollar.

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  #54  
Old 16.12.2011, 00:09
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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According to Sarkozy yesterday - now that banks can borrow money for 3 years from the ECB @ 1% so the banks can then lend money to their Governments, e.g. Italy, at less than the 6/7% that sovereign bonds fetch.

Seems like a crazy roundabout.......
According to a note circulated this week by Barclays Capital "banks are unlikely to use money borrowed from ECB to buy sovereign debt" - the reason being that sovereign debt has some uncertainity about the resale value.
Looks like that option is off the table; even the French banks who probably are under some Govt. pressure are saying that buying sovereign debt is "not a good idea"!
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  #55  
Old 16.12.2011, 00:38
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

The Euro crisis is 'A long game'

It will stagger through pretend fixes and manipulated optimism until investors and citizens will demand a permanent fix, those experienced in acquisition will know that the best way to achieve your objective at the price you want is to wear your seller down, destroy confidence in their product and give them no alternative...

Europe is the semi-prize, the globe is the goal....

The aim of the buyer in this situation is to offer not a Euro solution but a global one, the solution will be

1. One world bank
2. One World currency
3. One world religion
4. And worse of all one world leader (in perpetuity)

Time will tell, a big plan is afoot and I feel I will see it come to fruition in the next decade if not a lot sooner...
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  #56  
Old 16.12.2011, 10:47
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Euro crisis is 'A long game'

It will stagger through pretend fixes and manipulated optimism until investors and citizens will demand a permanent fix, those experienced in acquisition will know that the best way to achieve your objective at the price you want is to wear your seller down, destroy confidence in their product and give them no alternative...

Europe is the semi-prize, the globe is the goal....

The aim of the buyer in this situation is to offer not a Euro solution but a global one, the solution will be

1. One world bank
2. One World currency
3. One world religion
4. And worse of all one world leader (in perpetuity)

Time will tell, a big plan is afoot and I feel I will see it come to fruition in the next decade if not a lot sooner...

About "one world leader (in perpetuity" So where do I find the application form?
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  #57  
Old 16.12.2011, 11:45
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

You know the expression about "one does not know whether to laugh or cry!"

Seems the draft prospect for the EFSF (European stabilisation Fund) is circulating; they will raise the money by selling bonds so they need a prospectus.

In the "warnings" section there is an explicit warning to investors to the effect that the euro could lose value or disappear as a valid currency.....
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Old 16.12.2011, 13:49
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

And now the EFSF takes out of its draft the possibility of a EUR breakup because it is politically incorrect to include any such scenario.

"Europe's EFSF temporary rescue fund will remove a provision providing for the break up of the euro from initial drafts of its latest bond prospectus, a source at the fund said on Friday, a move that underlines the growing sensitivity of the issue for EU officials."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45694509

Inquisition Brussels-style.
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  #59  
Old 16.12.2011, 14:00
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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1. One world bank
2. One World currency
3. One world religion
4. And worse of all one world leader (in perpetuity)
Are you religious?
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  #60  
Old 16.12.2011, 14:55
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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And now the EFSF takes out of its draft the possibility of a EUR breakup because it is politically incorrect to include any such scenario.

"Europe's EFSF temporary rescue fund will remove a provision providing for the break up of the euro from initial drafts of its latest bond prospectus, a source at the fund said on Friday, a move that underlines the growing sensitivity of the issue for EU officials."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45694509

Inquisition Brussels-style.
So if they do not warn you, and you do buy these bonds, & the worst happens & the euro does break up - then you could sue the issuer for not warning you; especially when they were advised to make the warning & chose not too.

Sounds OK to me
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