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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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  #61  
Old 16.12.2011, 15:05
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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So if they do not warn you, and you do buy these bonds, & the worst happens & the euro does break up - then you could sue the issuer for not warning you; especially when they were advised to make the warning & chose not too.

Sounds OK to me
Tell that to the CDS holders that could not cash-in their proceeds because "oficially" Greece did not default, just reached an "agreement" with some creditors.

If the EFSF defaults you will be paid in an "official", "equivalent currency" and at a "fair value exchange rate" of course. Legislation will back this and you will have nothing to do with those securities.
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  #62  
Old 18.12.2011, 14:15
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Worst case scenario?
"The Foreign and Commonwealth Office and theTreasury is putting measures in place to help evacuate thousands ofexpatriates living in Spain and Portugal in case they are stranded noaccess to their savings. The two countries, which both have sizeableBritish populations, were among those made vulnerable by the"sustained deterioration" in funding.

The Foreign Office said it was concerned theycould be cut off from their accounts if the countries' banks calledin loans. "
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  #63  
Old 18.12.2011, 22:36
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

If money becomes obsolete here is an interesting alternative

http://watchmoviesonlinefree.ch/watc...e-online-free/
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  #64  
Old 18.12.2011, 23:13
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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If money becomes obsolete here is an interesting alternative

http://watchmoviesonlinefree.ch/watc...e-online-free/
Quite a good film and an interesting slant, Logan's run on steriods.
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  #65  
Old 19.12.2011, 07:35
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Worst case scenario?
"The Foreign and Commonwealth Office and theTreasury is putting measures in place to help evacuate thousands ofexpatriates living in Spain and Portugal in case they are stranded noaccess to their savings. The two countries, which both have sizeableBritish populations, were among those made vulnerable by the"sustained deterioration" in funding.

The Foreign Office said it was concerned theycould be cut off from their accounts if the countries' banks calledin loans. "
There's an even worse prediction at Zerohedge:
There it is reported that on the 6th. Dec. Larry Hatheway of the UBS said...
Quote:
Simply put, linear thinking doesn’t work in a non-linear world. And break-up is likely to produce a very non-linear set of outcomes.
Which brings me, lastly, to the question I sometimes get about what is the ‘right’ asset allocation in the event of break-up.
I suppose there might be some assets worthy of consideration—precious metals, for example. But other metals would make wise investments, too. Among them tinned goods and small calibre weapons.
Break-up runs the risk of becoming one wretched scenario. Sadly, however, it can’t be ruled out, just as it would have been improper to rule out the horrors of the first half of the 20th century before they happened.
But it is very hard to see break-up as a solution. Let’s hope Europe’s politicians and policymakers agree and take action this week to fix what is broken before itall really breaks up.
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ubs-ad...calibre-weapon

Please note however that Zero Hedge is critical of this UBS reporting saying it is 'scaremongering' in an attempt to get the EU to hand over even more money to rogue banks.

Last edited by spalebärg; 19.12.2011 at 07:49.
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  #66  
Old 19.12.2011, 21:30
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

A Twitter today"So EU will borrow funds 2 lend 2 IMF so it can borrow them back from IMF... yes, THAT is pure madness"

&
"Draghi (ECB chief) told the European parliament's economic committee that €230bn of bank bonds, up to €300bn of sovereign bonds and more than €200bn of collateralised debt obligations will all become due in the first three months of 2012.

On this basis I see 3 more months life for the euro.....

Last edited by marton; 19.12.2011 at 23:10.
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  #67  
Old 20.12.2011, 21:27
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Question for you

What if I have a EURO Loan in a European country (Ireland) and the EURO collapses let's say in Feb '12?

Will this mean it will be cheaper for me to reimbourse this loan (as I now live in Switzerland and have CHF only on my CHF account)?

Or, would the collapse of the EURO mean that "special rules" would be put in place in every European country that would freeze the value of the EURO until each country reverts back to their local currency (i.e. no changes for me)?

Or, would the collapse of the EURO have such an impact on the European economy that the CHF would also get hit heavily thus keeping the exchange rates similar to now?

What do you think?
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  #68  
Old 20.12.2011, 23:53
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

So the European Central Bank (ECB) is lending Europe banks money at 1% so the same banks can buy sovereign bonds paying 2%.
Somehow is this a long term solution???
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  #69  
Old 21.12.2011, 00:43
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

my money is on the ECB finally being forced to monetise EURO debts to bail out the PIIGS and screw over Euro savers (in particular the Germans).

the SNB will then be in the unenviable position (though one of its own making) of either breaking the euro peg and giving rise to massive FX losses, or keeping the peg and printing the CHF into oblivion.

Last edited by Phil_MCR; 21.12.2011 at 01:06.
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  #70  
Old 21.12.2011, 12:37
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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So the European Central Bank (ECB) is lending Europe banks money at 1% so the same banks can buy sovereign bonds paying 2%.
Somehow is this a long term solution???
Quote "The news on take-up of the European Central Bank's unlimited three-year loans to banks is in. The bank has allotted €489.2bn, more than expected. A Reuters poll had forecast eurozone banks would take up €310bn euros at the tender, although forecasts ranged from €50bn to €450bn euros"

So will the banks buy sovereign bonds with this? watch this space!

That is a big chunk of change; never really understood where this money comes from?
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  #71  
Old 21.12.2011, 13:57
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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That is a big chunk of change; never really understood where this money comes from?
Its 'printed' with keyboards, however these are 'loans' where you need to put up collateral to get the funding - after 3 years you pay it back.

The ECB expects the banks will use the money to loan out to whoever and also buy up government debt. At rates of 1% who wouldnt grab it? No doubt some of this money will end up in commodities (soft, hard) etc etc.
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  #72  
Old 21.12.2011, 15:15
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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What if I have a EURO Loan in a European country (Ireland) and the EURO collapses let's say in Feb '12?
If the Euro were to cease to exist, your debt would be transfered over into Punt Nua at whatever the exchange rate is. The Punt Nua would very quickly devalue meaning that you would most likely be better off since the CHF would probably be more stable (I didn't say stable, just more so than the new Punt).

If the Euro were to survive and Ireland left the currency then your debt would remain in Euro's since that (I assume) is the currency in which your contract is signed.

(The above is the general gist of it from what I've read elsewhere but to be honest, no one knows for certain how things would unfold)
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  #73  
Old 21.12.2011, 19:55
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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If the Euro were to cease to exist, your debt would be transfered over into Punt Nua at whatever the exchange rate is. The Punt Nua would very quickly devalue meaning that you would most likely be better off since the CHF would probably be more stable (I didn't say stable, just more so than the new Punt).

If the Euro were to survive and Ireland left the currency then your debt would remain in Euro's since that (I assume) is the currency in which your contract is signed.

(The above is the general gist of it from what I've read elsewhere but to be honest, no one knows for certain how things would unfold)
Thank you for this information Millso! Of course, nobody knows for sure "what would happen" or even "if it will happen" but what you wrote above makes sense!
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  #74  
Old 22.12.2011, 13:01
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

According to the FT today the Madrid-based Vega Asset Management wrote to fellow investors this month to say that it would consider suing if Greece insisted on writedowns of more than half of the net present value of the debt.

That would start a riot!
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  #75  
Old 26.01.2012, 08:08
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Just saw this article this morning:
At Davos 2012 George Soros Says Austerity 'Will Push Europe Into A Deflationary Debt Spiral'



Apparently the meeting in Davos started yesterday. I had no idea.
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  #76  
Old 26.01.2012, 18:14
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Just saw this article this morning:
At Davos 2012 George Soros Says Austerity 'Will Push Europe Into A Deflationary Debt Spiral'



Apparently the meeting in Davos started yesterday. I had no idea.
About "Apparently the meeting in Davos started yesterday. I had no idea"

Apparently there are now almost 100 private jets lurking around Zurich waiting for their passengers to return from the WEF.
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  #77  
Old 01.02.2012, 11:50
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

3-5 years according to dr. doom

http://nourielroubini.blogspot.com/2...zone-will.html
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  #78  
Old 01.02.2012, 12:37
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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If the Euro were to cease to exist, your debt would be transfered over into Punt Nua at whatever the exchange rate is. The Punt Nua would very quickly devalue meaning that you would most likely be better off since the CHF would probably be more stable (I didn't say stable, just more so than the new Punt).

If the Euro were to survive and Ireland left the currency then your debt would remain in Euro's since that (I assume) is the currency in which your contract is signed.

(The above is the general gist of it from what I've read elsewhere but to be honest, no one knows for certain how things would unfold)
The contract point is interesting, was your mortgage originally in IEP, and did you agree a EUR based contract on or after 2001? That might have an angle.

Something tells me given the prolific cross border traffic with the UK, Ireland might just plump for sterling like it was until 1979 it'll say it's temporary All Irish banks have subsidiaries 100 miles from Dublin in Belfast to easily ship cash into circulation from the North. They're also allowed to print NI sterling under NI law like in Hong Kong, Isle of Man, Scotland etc.

So "An Punt Nua" would actually be An SeanPunt (STG) which preceded the 1979 Punt.
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  #79  
Old 01.02.2012, 12:39
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I concur with 1-2 countries per year leaving in the meantime leading to a critical loss of mass.
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  #80  
Old 01.02.2012, 12:42
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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If the Euro were to cease to exist, your debt would be transfered over into Punt Nua at whatever the exchange rate is. The Punt Nua would very quickly devalue meaning that you would most likely be better off since the CHF would probably be more stable (I didn't say stable, just more so than the new Punt).

If the Euro were to survive and Ireland left the currency then your debt would remain in Euro's since that (I assume) is the currency in which your contract is signed.

(The above is the general gist of it from what I've read elsewhere but to be honest, no one knows for certain how things would unfold)
Steffano, does your Irish bank allow you to have an GBP account you could transfer the debt into? This can be possible if they have an offshore entity in GBM, GBJ, GBG etc where you can have it in GBP, EUR or CHF where you live.
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