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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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  #121  
Old 02.06.2012, 11:24
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Haha. So funny.

So if gold is the opposite of a fiat currency.... What will you do with your 1 kg bar? Chop it into pieces when you go to the grocery store? Fact is if the system melts your gold wont help much. Unless you have secret goldsmith powers.

But it's HILARIOUS to see this type comments about " weak hands" and " us election". You know, if you actually have no idea it's ok to be straightforward about it.

You know it's a bubble when you see second-rate US actors pimping gold to Mom and Pop on Tv.
The actors are asking you to SELL your gold not to BUY gold.
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  #122  
Old 02.06.2012, 11:28
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The actors are asking you to SELL your gold not to BUY gold.
However the mugs who sell, get nowhere near what the scrap gold is worth.
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  #123  
Old 02.06.2012, 13:45
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Both the Euro & CHF are overvalued...........
Both will fall, it's only a matter of when

You have to remember it's only a couple of years ago that the USD was supposed to loose it's status as a resreve currency to be replaced by the Euro.
Well I will agree with you that the CHF will continue to fall as long as it's coupled to the €.

Of recent, the largest moves by central banks world wide who seek to get rid of US$ is to sell their paper dollars and buy something more substantial.... and that is gold. There are many central banks buying gold - see FT article for more details.....

Central banks pounce on falling gold
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  #124  
Old 02.06.2012, 13:55
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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However the mugs who sell, get nowhere near what the scrap gold is worth.
That's because the general public has no idea what gold is really worth, as some members on this thread amply demonstrate.
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  #125  
Old 02.06.2012, 16:40
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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There are many central banks buying gold - see FT article for more details.....

Central banks pounce on falling gold
Then you can be very sure that gold's price is now too high, the central banks were all selling heavily around $300. Its the buy high & sell low mentality of the private investor.

I quite like Warren Buffets take on gold from his letter to shareholders this year

"Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it
would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At
$1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400
million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most
profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would
have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying
binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual
production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users,
frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely
maintain an equilibrium at present prices.
A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn,
wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the
currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its
owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The
170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can
fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m
confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at
a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B."
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  #126  
Old 02.06.2012, 19:04
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Warren Buffett would have made more money closing BRK 10 years ago and being a contrarian.



We are living through an unprecedented global inflation which is accompanied by the growth of debt-financed government worldwide.



While individual businesses which determine how to adapt to this situation will grow and prosper, these are terrible conditions for stocks. The serial bubbles created by newly created money entering markets at unpredictable entry points mean no one can make plans on the long horizons needed to provided consistent returns to investors. The growth in government that is fueled by 'quantitative easing' threatens innovation and profit in every business. Businessmen move on from one burst bubble to the next while investors must continually speculate to avoid capital loss in inflation-adjusted terms. Gold is a financial survival tool for a period of economic upheaval (but not the only one, merely one of many.)
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  #127  
Old 02.06.2012, 19:34
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Warren Buffett would have made more money closing BRK 10 years ago and being a contrarian.



We are living through an unprecedented global inflation which is accompanied by the growth of debt-financed government worldwide.



While individual businesses which determine how to adapt to this situation will grow and prosper, these are terrible conditions for stocks. The serial bubbles created by newly created money entering markets at unpredictable entry points mean no one can make plans on the long horizons needed to provided consistent returns to investors. The growth in government that is fueled by 'quantitative easing' threatens innovation and profit in every business. Businessmen move on from one burst bubble to the next while investors must continually speculate to avoid capital loss in inflation-adjusted terms. Gold is a financial survival tool for a period of economic upheaval (but not the only one, merely one of many.)
Think of the tax liabilities!, not sure why your graph starts in 1990, why not go back to when he too over BH, the share price was $15, gold was $20.

Gold closed at $1626, Berkshire $118,845. Over a lifetime Gold had been a very poor investment.
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  #128  
Old 02.06.2012, 19:58
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I quite like Warren Buffets take on gold from his letter to shareholders this year
Whether deliberately or not I don't know but it is clear that in this instance Warren Buffet is mixing apples and pears.

Gold and farmland are two very different things:
  • Farmland is an investment. One buys it to produce an end product.
  • Gold is not an investment but is money.

Correctly Buffet should have compared gold to a pile of paper dollar bills and seeing which has more value one century from now. I am sure Buffet knows this, but the object of the exercise here was to pull the wool over the eyes of his shareholders who have mistakenly placed their trust in him.
It would not surprise me one bit to learn that Buffet was leaned on politically most probably by Obama's goons.
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  #129  
Old 02.06.2012, 20:01
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Not really, Gold has some intrinsic value, it's not something I would invest in however. I have lived in CH for 18 years however other than pension funds less than 1.5% of my assets are in CHF or CHF denominated securities as I don't look for security, I seek value.
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  #130  
Old 02.06.2012, 20:29
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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  • Gold is not an investment but is money.
Your opinion, rather than any fact, of course many investors (& Swiss pension Funds) choose to hold cash & government bonds.

BTW Gold also gets turned into products.

Perhaps you can provide some link Gold = Money
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  #131  
Old 02.06.2012, 20:59
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Your opinion, rather than any fact, of course many investors (& Swiss pension Funds) choose to hold cash & government bonds.

BTW Gold also gets turned into products.

Perhaps you can provide some link Gold = Money
Links are not really necessary since it is generally known that the Chinese and Russian central banks are buying gold to replace their dollar currency reserves and not for 'fondling' as Warren Buffet might think.
However, sort of off the top of my hat without studying I offer you the name and job description of the person who recently has caused some major oscillations in the gold price. Please note the job description....
http://www.linkedin.com/in/mikaelcharoze
One sees that the BIS considers gold to be equivalent to a currency.

Last edited by spalebärg; 02.06.2012 at 21:15.
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  #132  
Old 02.06.2012, 21:08
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Food for thought! From todays papers;

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan told the local weekend press that the central bank may consider capital controls to fight the inflow of money that would inevitably flood Switzerland in the event of a euro breakup.

"Switzerland introduced capital controls in the 1970s as Middle Eastern oil money made its way into Swiss bank deposits," said Morgan Stanley in a research note. "The introduction of capital controls and negative deposit rates did not prevent the franc appreciating by 30% during times when capital controls were in place."

"The honeymoon for the SNB is over," said PaulMeggyesi, a currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase JPM-3.68%& Co. in a research note to clientsMonday. A break in the floor is a matter of time, the U.S. bank said. "We are more comfortable in predicting the ultimate demise of the floor...than in calling the timing of such a shift," it said.

"The euro's existential crisis risks accelerating the end game.The question for the SNB is whether it is willing to risk massive interventionin the defense of an exchange-rate target it knows to be unsustainable,"it added.

Dealers report that the prime broker arm of Rabobank, thetriple A minus rated Dutch bank, was snapping up euros against the franc in May and is widely believed to have been acting on the SNB’s behalf. Analysts estimate this apparent intervention has cost the SNB between SFr20bn and SFr100bn this month.

That compares with just over SFr100bn spent on intervention by the SNB in the entire second quarter of 2010, according to calculations by CreditSuisse, and SFr18bn in 2011.

Ian Stannard, head ofEuropean currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London, said the SNB will eventually be forced to give up its franc defense as Europe’s crisis worsens, reaffirming the currency’s haven status. He sees it strengthening toward 1.10per euro later this year...
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  #133  
Old 02.06.2012, 21:37
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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One sees that the BIS considers gold to be equivalent to a currency.
No, you see 1 employee adds it in his profile on Linkedin, so he can trade 1 commodity in addition to FX, they act for central Banks who historically held Gold, so what!.
From experiance in CH 'senior' position can mean very little, especially on CV's

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 02.06.2012 at 22:03.
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  #134  
Old 03.06.2012, 14:18
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Hans, a middle-aged German tourist on his first visit to Orlando, Florida,
finds the red light district and enters a large brothel.
The madam asks him to be seated and sends over a young lady to entertain him.

They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap.
He whispers in her ear and she gasps and runs away! !
Seeing this, the madam sends over a more experienced lady to entertain the gentleman.

They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap.
He whispers in her ear, and she too screams, "No!" and walks quickly away.

The madam is surprised that this ordinary looking man has asked for something so outrageous
that her two girls will have nothing to do with him.
She decides that only her most experienced lady, Lola, will do.
Lola has never said no, and it's not likely anything would surprise her.
So the madam sends her over to Hans.
They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap.
He whispers in her ear and she screams, "NO WAY, BUDDY!" and smacks him as hard as she can and leaves.

Madam is by now absolutely intrigued, having seen nothing like this in all her years of operating a brothel.
She hasn't done the bedroom work herself for a long time,
but she's sure she has said yes to everything a man could possibly ask for.
She just has to find out what this man wants that has made her girls so angry.
Besides she sees a chance to teach her employees a lesson.

So she goes over to Hans and says that she's the best in the house and is available.
She sits and talks with him. They frolic, giggle, drink and then she sits in his lap.
Hans leans forwards and whispers in her ear, "Can I pay in Euros?"
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  #135  
Old 03.06.2012, 14:32
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

No way they let the Euro fall completely. Too many economies will be crippled. Of course, it can still fall in value quite a bit, but it will not completely go away
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  #136  
Old 03.06.2012, 16:12
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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No way they let the Euro fall completely. Too many economies will be crippled. Of course, it can still fall in value quite a bit, but it will not completely go away
Paper currencies are based on trust. Nothing but trust.

Once enough market participants lose trust in a currency it's game over. Doesn't matter if "they" let it fall or not.
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  #137  
Old 03.06.2012, 18:13
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Paper currencies are based on trust. Nothing but trust.

Once enough market participants lose trust in a currency it's game over. Doesn't matter if "they" let it fall or not.
Got a funny feeling the first shoe - maybe in the shape of a big bank or similar - is going to drop very soon.
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  #138  
Old 03.06.2012, 21:31
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Oswald Gruebel, chief executive of flagship bank UBS until last year, said today in the newspaper Der Sonntag that the Swiss central bank should give up on the currency cap.
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  #139  
Old 03.06.2012, 22:09
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Oswald Gruebel, chief executive of flagship bank UBS until last year, said today in the newspaper Der Sonntag that the Swiss central bank should give up on the currency cap.
CNBC has translated Gruebel's message...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47663569
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  #140  
Old 03.06.2012, 22:32
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Oswald Gruebel, chief executive of flagship bank UBS until last year, said today in the newspaper Der Sonntag that the Swiss central bank should give up on the currency cap.
they should have never started it. the whole basis for the strategy that in a few years, the problems of the Eurozone will be fixed and the SNB could then sell the Euros they bought for a profit was fundamentally flawed.

at some point, they will realise that if they want to give away the money, they can just send all future tax revenue to the PIIGS directly and side-step this currency cap farce.
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