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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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  #141  
Old 03.06.2012, 22:40
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Gruebel is probably right. EU and EUR look bad, really bad. SNB can't buy EUR forever. It could be better to buy hard assets rather than EUR. Flooding the market with CHF and buying European property, companies, precious metals or even pieces of infrastructure would be a better option IMO. Funny role of the SNB that would be for sure.

On the other hand, Gruebel should shut his mouth for a while. Its not that he can teach country-economics when his performance as a CEO has been dismal.
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  #142  
Old 04.06.2012, 22:54
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

I love rumours

The latest one says that the BIS is considering making gold a Tier 1 asset.
For source of the rumour>>> See third paragraph

If this happens then if one considers the euro to be the right wing of an airplane and the CHF the left wing, then anti-aircraft-Tier-1-gold FLAK will soon be taking off a meter or so each side.
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  #143  
Old 04.06.2012, 23:05
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

And where will you be?

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I love rumours

The latest one says that the BIS is considering making gold a Tier 1 asset.
For source of the rumour>>> See third paragraph

If this happens then if one considers the euro to be the right wing of an airplane and the CHF the left wing, then anti-aircraft-Tier-1-gold FLAK will soon be taking off a meter or so each side.
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  #144  
Old 05.06.2012, 11:04
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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And where will you be?
I thought a lot about that question. Too much to say everything here.
In any case the answer would be largely outside of the remit of the original question posed about the euro.
But in short the result of my present thinking is something like this....
If I were a lot younger (say under 45), and if I had the courage of my convictions, I most probably would be in the process of emigrating to a South American country, maybe Peru, Chile or Argentina.
Right now I consider the two most politically dangerous places in the near future would be North America and the Far East (China, Japan and similar). The second potentially risky place to be is western Europe (i.e. EU, Switzerland etc.).
But for various reasons I won't be doing this but rather staying put.
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  #145  
Old 05.06.2012, 12:16
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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...
If I were a lot younger (say under 45), and if I had the courage of my convictions, I most probably would be in the process of emigrating to a South American country, maybe Peru, Chile or Argentina.
Right now I consider the two most politically dangerous places in the near future would be North America and the Far East (China, Japan and similar). The second potentially risky place to be is western Europe (i.e. EU, Switzerland etc.).
...
You include Canada in your list of "most politically dangerous places in the near future"??? Can you explain what you mean by that?
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  #146  
Old 05.06.2012, 12:42
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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You include Canada in your list of "most politically dangerous places in the near future"??? Can you explain what you mean by that?
IMO that's the way the north American countries are trending, i.e. towards becoming socialistic police states with ever increasing government spending that long term will not be sustainable.
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  #147  
Old 05.06.2012, 12:59
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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IMO that's the way the north American countries are trending, i.e. towards becoming socialistic police states with ever increasing government spending that long term will not be sustainable.
What is a socialistic state?
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  #148  
Old 05.06.2012, 13:02
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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What is a socialistic state?
A state with compulsory dinner parties.
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  #149  
Old 05.06.2012, 13:05
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Argentina.
Haaahaaaahaaaa.

Sorry. But that's really funny.
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  #150  
Old 05.06.2012, 21:43
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Haaahaaaahaaaa.

Sorry. But that's really funny.
Well s/he did say "maybe".

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  #151  
Old 06.06.2012, 00:13
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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If I were a lot younger (say under 45), and if I had the courage of my convictions, I most probably would be in the process of emigrating to a South American country, maybe Peru, Chile or Argentina.
Right now I consider the two most politically dangerous places in the near future would be North America and the Far East (China, Japan and similar). The second potentially risky place to be is western Europe (i.e. EU, Switzerland etc.).
But for various reasons I won't be doing this but rather staying put.
I can define Argentina as some sort of Italy but lazier, dumber and more corrupt. It started going downhill with Perón and never stopped on the way down. Kirchner is a joke made president and Argentinians vote zombie-style. Not the place were you want to live, especially given their latest signs of affection towards foreigners and their investments.

Perú is like a roller coaster. It has demonstrated stability during the last decade but with serious social and economic rifts. There is more common ground between the highlanders of Bolivia, Perú and Ecuador than between Peruvians themselves. Perú is a pressure pot that will explode at some point. Forget their mining: it will all go bust when shit hits the fan. Their president (ex-army) looked like a sort of Chavez mini-me, but now has demonstrated to be just another populist. Judicial system is Kafkaesque and corrupt.

Chile is by far the best of the pack and the best Latin American country by a wide margin (disclaimer: I'm not Chilean). Best work ethics, best education, best judicial system, well implanted democracy (after Pinochet of course).

Europe is becoming dangerous. I would say that North-America is much safer, especially Canada (definitely not Mexico). Canada has the lowest debt-gdp ratio of the OECD by the way, which doesn't mean it is low, it means it is the cleanest dirty shirt.
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  #152  
Old 06.06.2012, 01:12
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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...................
Europe is becoming dangerous. I would say that North-America is much safer, especially Canada (definitely not Mexico). Canada has the lowest debt-gdp ratio of the OECD by the way, which doesn't mean it is low, it means it is the cleanest dirty shirt.
Agree with the take on Europe with the occasional exception here and there - Switzerland for now definitely being one. Unfortunately though a lot of stink washes onto CH from the cesspool it is surrounded by . Not much that can be done about that apart from buying as much time as possible until those external influences implode - already whats being witnessed would have been completely unheard of in 2002-2005, so things can change fast.

Australia has a low debt/GDP ratio compared to OECD average. However both CAN and AUS have high household debt so if the housing market gets wobbly, that debt would most likely move onto the public sector as it has everywhere else. Then you go from low debt/GDP to high very quickly.

Argentina, no thanks here either. Not surprisingly its always in perpetual crisis, but as has been mentioned, Chile often comes in as a stand out. Rest of S.America is a mixed bad going from bad to worse and the trend is definitely negative. Poverty levels remain high and for most will probably get worse.

Info below is 2010, so since then most of the figures are even higher
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  #153  
Old 06.06.2012, 02:23
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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\
Argentina, no thanks here either. Not surprisingly its always in perpetual crisis, but as has been mentioned, Chile often comes in as a stand out. Rest of S.America is a mixed bad going from bad to worse and the trend is definitely negative. Poverty levels remain high and for most will probably get worse.
What made me laugh about spalebärg's suggestion of Argentina is s/he clearly doesn't have a clue about the country. It's an absolute basket case and Cristina is printing money like it's going out of style. Invest in paper! lol

I did think Australia would be a better option for spalebärg, which he didn't mention at all. Brazil is a good option, too. It's the only one I'd consider in South America.

But frankly if things explode I'll just go to the "ancestral home" (ie move in with family who own their land outright :P) and hope one of us can figure out how to grow a freaking tomato cuz they aren't growing here in CH.

Plus I know how to make glass beads which I can trade.
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  #154  
Old 06.06.2012, 03:50
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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But frankly if things explode I'll just go to the "ancestral home" (ie move in with family who own their land outright :P) and hope one of us can figure out how to grow a freaking tomato cuz they aren't growing here in CH.
If things explode, though, what makes you think you'll be able to get a flight, or a boat for that matter? If you're thinking the US embassy will arrange a military flight out, well, remember that they're not really in the business of helping US citizens overseas, not really anyway. I was rather concerned about getting out before the collapse since it's going to get pretty ugly over there if things really hit the fan. Worst case scenario...I'd work on figuring out how to grow tomatoes on your balcony if you have one and stockpile a few basics like TP, soap, etc.

I keep hoping someone will pull a rabbit out of their arse, but with every passing day it grows harder to see how this will end in anything but misery. If nothing else, maybe the G7 can lean on the eurocrats to GTFO with it and fix it instead of squabbling over who owes more and why.
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  #155  
Old 06.06.2012, 10:07
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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. If nothing else, maybe the G7 can lean on the eurocrats to GTFO with it and fix it instead of squabbling over who owes more and why.
You...DO know who the G7 members are?
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  #156  
Old 06.06.2012, 13:06
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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If things explode, though, what makes you think you'll be able to get a flight, or a boat for that matter? If you're thinking the US embassy will arrange a military flight out, well, remember that they're not really in the business of helping US citizens overseas, not really anyway.
Oh, no. I'm staying in Europe. If the whole thing explodes* the US is the last place I'd go. But I take your point. I'm buying a horse & learning to sail. Signing up for class right now.




*I'm taking from spalebärg's post and talking the WHOLE thing exploding, not just the Euro.
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  #157  
Old 06.06.2012, 13:41
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

How long until Spain is "rescued"? They are trying to hold out until after the Greek elections but I don't know if they will make it even that fair.
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  #158  
Old 06.06.2012, 14:55
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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You...DO know who the G7 members are?
Well, it doesn't matter who as they as they all understand that if the EU really implodes spectacularly, nobody will go unscathed since this isn't about imprudent government spending as, if it was, few of the troubled countries would have ever lasted this long. They need to fix it as, no, I have little to no faith that anyone in the EU has the ability to do so anymore.
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  #159  
Old 06.06.2012, 14:58
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Oh, no. I'm staying in Europe. If the whole thing explodes* the US is the last place I'd go. But I take your point. I'm buying a horse & learning to sail. Signing up for class right now.
Just out of curiosity, why would you thing the EU is going to be better than the US? Particularly if you aren't a citizen of any of the countries in the zone?

Also, horses make great burgers...learn to cook trigger, not ride him. Learning to sail in a land-locked country might be a waste of your time. Don't they offer some sort of Swiss Army survivalist course somewhere around there?
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  #160  
Old 06.06.2012, 14:59
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Well, it doesn't matter who as they as they all understand that if the EU really implodes spectacularly, nobody will go unscathed since this isn't about imprudent government spending as, if it was, few of the troubled countries would have ever lasted this long. They need to fix it as, no, I have little to no faith that anyone in the EU has the ability to do so anymore.
Four of the seven members of the G7 are EU. Would you like to amend your statement above to make it appear more sensical?
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