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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
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  #161  
Old 06.06.2012, 15:06
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Now...Now!

You wouldn't want to deprive what few there are who are NOT keen to pull the house down on our heads of our fun!

Would you!??????

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Four of the seven members of the G7 are EU. Would you like to amend your statement above to make it appear more sensical?
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  #162  
Old 06.06.2012, 15:08
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Four of the seven members of the G7 are EU. Would you like to amend your statement above to make it appear more sensical?
Well, the UK isn't /REALLY/ part of the EU, Italy doesn't have a pot to piss in and, well, the French are the French which leaves only Germany and, let's face it, given all the Nazi rhetoric with regards to their stewardship in the storm, they would be politically wise to tone it down a bit. No, I don't think any of the EU leadership currently has the chops to solve this problem. If they had, it might have been solved 3 years ago or, even late last year instead of this endless torture of serial bailouts.
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  #163  
Old 06.06.2012, 16:24
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Well, the UK isn't /REALLY/ part of the EU, Italy doesn't have a pot to piss in and, well, the French are the French which leaves only Germany and, let's face it, given all the Nazi rhetoric with regards to their stewardship in the storm.......

If nothing else, maybe the G7 can lean on the eurocrats to GTFO with it and fix it instead of squabbling over who owes more and why.
Hmm. So you mention the G7, then discount the 4 members of the EU that are in it and the rest should 'lean on the Eurocrats' to solve the problem?

The countries you are left with are US, Japan and Canada.

Two of those countries are profligate uber spenders and are actually the kings of 'serial bailout' nations which you seem to be opposed to

Japan last balanced its budget in the early 90's which also was temporary. Has debt to GDP at 220%, the highest of any COUNTRY in the world. And one of the first 'lets bail out everything in sight' countries during their own 20yr recession.

Then you have the US with a $1.3 trillion budget hole (thats over $4000 for every man, woman and child in the country....per YEAR). To give you an idea of the hole, for every $1 the US government raises in taxes, it spends $1.56. And they cant even decide on tiny service cuts . Also historically they have had continual neverending budget deficits as well as trade deficits and already and still counting multi TRILLION dollar bailouts.

And then you have........... Canada: Representing 5% of the G7

Without even being there I can tell what the G7 would suggest: Spend, bailout, rinse and repeat. You sure we should take advice from them NEXT.
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  #164  
Old 06.06.2012, 16:31
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Well, the UK isn't /REALLY/ part of the EU, Italy doesn't have a pot to piss in and, well, the French are the French which leaves only Germany and, let's face it, given all the Nazi rhetoric with regards to their stewardship in the storm, they would be politically wise to tone it down a bit. No, I don't think any of the EU leadership currently has the chops to solve this problem. If they had, it might have been solved 3 years ago or, even late last year instead of this endless torture of serial bailouts.
so, what's the outcome in your opinion?
What will be the consequences for Swiss people? For people with GBP? with Euros? with "metals" (gold, silver, platinium)
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  #165  
Old 06.06.2012, 17:57
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Eurobonds and the ECB printing enough euros to allow debt to be paid back with consequent inflation is the only solution to this crisis. If Germany can't take this, then they should leave the euro. To paraphrase, "If you lie down with PIIGS, you get up with fleas"
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  #166  
Old 06.06.2012, 19:05
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Just out of curiosity, why would you thing the EU is going to be better than the US? Particularly if you aren't a citizen of any of the countries in the zone?

Also, horses make great burgers...learn to cook trigger, not ride him. Learning to sail in a land-locked country might be a waste of your time. Don't they offer some sort of Swiss Army survivalist course somewhere around there?
I am a citizen of a country in "the zone", have been all my life.

If the whole world economy exploded I wouldn't want to be in a place with so many any guns, weapons & fundamentalists. And I'm getting the horses* to ride to the ocean where I will sail to an island. But don't steal my plan!!!

*I'm planning on buying 3 now.



PS, It's G8, right? They did let Russia in the club back a while ago. And the UK really really IS in the EU.
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  #167  
Old 06.06.2012, 21:07
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Eurobonds and the ECB printing enough euros to allow debt to be paid back with consequent inflation is the only solution to this crisis. If Germany can't take this, then they should leave the euro. To paraphrase, "If you lie down with PIIGS, you get up with fleas"
Except thats not so simple - well printing is but the consequences arnt.

1. Any 'new' debt then has to be issued at higher rates to compensate for the 'inflation'. All your doing is washing out your purchasing power and then having to cover with more interest on any new debt being issued.

2. The real solution is to start balancing budgets and stop spending more than is being earned.

3. Without balanced budgets and a halt to growing debt levels, Eurobonds rates would start low and then rise over time. With the current mentality, Eurobonds are merely a solution of kicking the can down the road (hence why PIIGS are for it, politicians, US etc).
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  #168  
Old 06.06.2012, 21:37
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Except thats not so simple - well printing is but the consequences arnt.

1. Any 'new' debt then has to be issued at higher rates to compensate for the 'inflation'. All your doing is washing out your purchasing power and then having to cover with more interest on any new debt being issued.

2. The real solution is to start balancing budgets and stop spending more than is being earned.

3. Without balanced budgets and a halt to growing debt levels, Eurobonds rates would start low and then rise over time. With the current mentality, Eurobonds are merely a solution of kicking the can down the road (hence why PIIGS are for it, politicians, US etc).
But that not as easy as it sounds, either. Have a look at the population age distribution graphs for the eurozone countries and it's hard to look away from the massive youth unemployment, the recession at best over the next few years and the swelling of those on state pensions. Hollande just made a move to lower retirement age to 60 for some in France which begs the question how does he plan to pay for it when they can't afford what they have now?

This is all well beyond simple accounting 101.
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  #169  
Old 06.06.2012, 21:42
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

My position in more detail:
In my opinion, for many people the West’s political system and the way its financial system is supposed to work has already lost much credibility. As this loss of credibility spreads through the population as a whole - and this will surely happen when the monetary crap hits the fan – people will start getting very angry.
The elites still view the financial crisis as a chance not to help the actual economy as such but to supply public funds (by printing non-existent money and extracting taxes from the public) to bailing out insolvent banks. Remember the lender of last resort should ONLY help illiquid banks NOT insolvent ones. Anything else is theft.
The financial crisis and all the other catastrophic news will erode the public’s trust in the western world.
When that happens IMO the Western world’s governments and their efficiently organized police forces will find they need to use increased repression to maintain public order and stronger enforcement measures to continue to collect taxes from the Milch-cows. Watch Greece for the warming up phase of this. The last stage will be when these states stop perceiving the public as milch-cows but see them as beef cattle…

When things really hit the fan the big danger – at least the way I see things – is not from weak, unstable governments but from strong, well organized governments. In the final analysis the job of government will boil down to enforcing a power structure of rulers over the masses and extracting money from them. Since the only tool the system has is force then that will be used to whatever degree is needed when the situation becomes extreme.

Thus my point in favouring South America becomes obvious…
- it’s well away from where all the problems are.
- there are many differently politically organized independent countries in one contiguous continent.
- most of the governments of these countries are not well organized at the people-control level.
- individual police officers are often prepared to accept efficient direct contributions in addition to their pay via central government. lol
- many of the populations are long-standing and stable and have got their heads screwed on properly wrt. to government and how to survive. (take Argentina where the middle classes have repeated had to contend with hyper-inflation)
- away from the capital and large cities population densities are low.
- in a major crisis I doubt if there will be massive shortages of simple foodstuffs and basic requirements.
- buying productive land is still relatively inexpensive or at least affordable.
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  #170  
Old 06.06.2012, 22:46
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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2. The real solution is to start balancing budgets and stop spending more than is being earned.

.
That is not and never will be the Mediterranean mentality.
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  #171  
Old 06.06.2012, 22:52
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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That is not and never will be the Mediterranean mentality.
...which explains why a common Euro for northern and southern Europe was destined to failure from the get go.
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  #172  
Old 07.06.2012, 00:33
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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That is not and never will be the Mediterranean mentality.
It's not going to be a reality for most of the EU countries with rapidly aging populations. I recently read that even Canada now has marginally less than 1 worker entering the workforce for each one leaving for retirement. What happens in a few years when the bulge of the boomers leave the workforce? Things just can't keep on working in the same way with the expectations that merely keeping to a budget will fix the problems.
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  #173  
Old 07.06.2012, 01:00
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

So many fear mongers. Last time I checked, the euro was still the only official currency in some countries. Surprise, surprise.
What a foolish thread.
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  #174  
Old 07.06.2012, 09:25
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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You include Canada in your list of "most politically dangerous places in the near future"??? Can you explain what you mean by that?
Just to show I have nothing against Canadians here's one who has his head securely fixed to his shoulders....

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  #175  
Old 07.06.2012, 10:43
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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So many fear mongers. Last time I checked, the euro was still the only official currency in some countries. Surprise, surprise.
What a foolish thread.
This is exactly what crossed my mind. What do you think is gonna happen. All the efforts to create and sustain the common currency will be made in vain? They will convene a summit and decide bugger off? They will dissolve the EU and chase all out to the field and let us live on fruits of the forest and waters of the rivers? No my friends, there is too much effort put in and as far as I look at the currencies they are doing ok. Enjoy CH/EUR exchange and stop moaning. If sh..t is about to hit the fan at worst case scenario they will print more EUR. It's like dollar a very strong trading currency and who can resist temptation.
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  #176  
Old 07.06.2012, 11:14
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

US preacher warns end of the world is nigh: 21 May, around 6pm, to be precise

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...e-2254139.html


The end of the world is nigh?

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...d-is-nigh.html
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  #177  
Old 07.06.2012, 11:26
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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It's not going to be a reality for most of the EU countries with rapidly aging populations. I recently read that even Canada now has marginally less than 1 worker entering the workforce for each one leaving for retirement. What happens in a few years when the bulge of the boomers leave the workforce? Things just can't keep on working in the same way with the expectations that merely keeping to a budget will fix the problems.
Yes we need thousands of billions of migrant. That's the solution to the identified issue (]with rapidly aging populations).

By the way they kept saying that in France since the 1970's. The only result is... well I let you observe it: crisis in France, many integration issues, racism, etc...

I had friends from Europe who commented: Paris is like "north africa", even worse comments from "seine st denis"...


You said "things just can't keep on working in the same way with the expectations that merely keeping to a budget will fix the problems".
I agree with that type of government and politics (not left, right, up, bottow, whatever bullsh1t) it's always a disaster.

It's a very complex issue And yet the solution is quite simple!
Government has money in and money out. They just need to balance that...
Ok the question is "how", well there are so many bad expenses made by the administration that there's no point to even address them:
Those administrative teams have been in place for too long, have too much power and think they have even more power, and often only play for the left-right changing game. They can not even be fired and citizen have really really limited interaction with them. Don't even think of an administrative claim/complaint it's a drop in the sea.

So I think your "issue" of ageing population may be genuine and relevant but how we address it is the key. And it will requires a definitely different approach, more clever than politic.
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  #178  
Old 07.06.2012, 11:45
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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My position in more detail:
In my opinion, for many people the West’s political system and the way its financial system is supposed to work has already lost much credibility. As this loss of credibility spreads through the population as a whole - and this will surely happen when the monetary crap hits the fan – people will start getting very angry.
The elites still view the financial crisis as a chance not to help the actual economy as such but to supply public funds (by printing non-existent money and extracting taxes from the public) to bailing out insolvent banks. Remember the lender of last resort should ONLY help illiquid banks NOT insolvent ones. Anything else is theft.
The financial crisis and all the other catastrophic news will erode the public’s trust in the western world.
When that happens IMO the Western world’s governments and their efficiently organized police forces will find they need to use increased repression to maintain public order and stronger enforcement measures to continue to collect taxes from the Milch-cows. Watch Greece for the warming up phase of this. The last stage will be when these states stop perceiving the public as milch-cows but see them as beef cattle…

When things really hit the fan the big danger – at least the way I see things – is not from weak, unstable governments but from strong, well organized governments. In the final analysis the job of government will boil down to enforcing a power structure of rulers over the masses and extracting money from them. Since the only tool the system has is force then that will be used to whatever degree is needed when the situation becomes extreme.

Thus my point in favouring South America becomes obvious…
- it’s well away from where all the problems are.
- there are many differently politically organized independent countries in one contiguous continent.
- most of the governments of these countries are not well organized at the people-control level.
- individual police officers are often prepared to accept efficient direct contributions in addition to their pay via central government. lol
- many of the populations are long-standing and stable and have got their heads screwed on properly wrt. to government and how to survive. (take Argentina where the middle classes have repeated had to contend with hyper-inflation)
- away from the capital and large cities population densities are low.
- in a major crisis I doubt if there will be massive shortages of simple foodstuffs and basic requirements.
- buying productive land is still relatively inexpensive or at least affordable.
About "most of the governments of these countries are not well organized at the people-control level."

Argentina was reputed to fly people over the Atlantic & then push them out. Seems well organized to me.
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  #179  
Old 07.06.2012, 11:54
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Thus my point in favouring South America becomes obvious…
-
Argentina government is feeding conflict and keep using their power (media, official comments, etc...) to lead the population against the British!

There has been a recent war in Falklands, it was lost and accepted by Argentina.

But they clearly changed mind (after their defeat that costed many lives) and feed the conflict again. A bit like a little dogs biting your ankle when you have your back turned...

I'm not even British, but that is what I observe-
So I would not comment much on the "good Argentina government"!!!
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  #180  
Old 07.06.2012, 12:10
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Seems the SNB spent 66 Billion CHF in May buying euros to keep the 1.20 ceiling.

These are huge numbers; how long will they keep it up?
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