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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 09.12.2011, 11:19
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How long does the Euro have left?

Since it is nearly certain that the politicians in Brussels are doing nothing to solve this crisis and few believe the circus surrounding the summit, how long do you think it will last before things really get darwinian?

Monday?
Christmas?
Mid-February?
Or, do you think they'll patch things up overnight?
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  #2  
Old 09.12.2011, 11:20
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Since it is nearly certain that the politicians in Brussels are doing nothing to solve this crisis and few believe the circus surrounding the summit, how long do you think it will last before things really get darwinian?

Monday?
Christmas?
Mid-February?
Or, do you think they'll patch things up overnight?
Possibly Tuesday but don't quote me on that..

I wish that utopian brainfart would fall into pieces, so that they can start it up from scratch with one common language.
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:29
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I wish that utopian brainfart would fall into pieces, so that they can start it up from scratch with one common language.
Are you sure you like the idea of all Europeans speaking DEUTSCH?!?
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:31
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Are you sure you like the idea of all Europeans speaking DEUTSCH?!?
Nah, it should be English...well, North American that is.
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:41
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Nah, it should be English...well, North American that is.
OK, I'm fine with that...

As far as the poll is concerned, I miss the choice of early January.

I think that everything possible will be done to muddle through till after Christmas. Besides, I kinda like the idea of Angie announcing on her New Year's speech that Germany will go back to the Deutsche Mark from January 2nd.
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:47
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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OK, I'm fine with that...

As far as the poll is concerned, I miss the choice of early January.

I think that everything possible will be done to muddle through till after Christmas. Besides, I kinda like the idea of Angie announcing on her New Year's speech that Germany will go back to the Deutsche Mark from January 2nd.
Personally, I think it's coming Monday as I don't believe there's enough steam left in this train wreck to get it to the end of the year. Also, the media is claiming all 17 monetary states agree to the treaty change, but I'm reading in the Finnish news that Finland alone is refusing to agree. It makes me deeply mistrustful of the role of the media in bolstering confidence in a currency that is already doomed.

I chose mid-february since that's when a big chunk of bonds come up. Jan 2nd is close enough to xmas to count as that option.
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  #7  
Old 09.12.2011, 11:49
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Besides, I kinda like the idea of Angie announcing on her New Year's speech that Germany will go back to the Deutsche Mark from January 2nd.
Does anyone know if the new deutsche marks they are printing are the same or interchangable with the old ones?

I've got a good stash of old ones that I never got the chance to exchange at the time, so in hindsight maybe it wasn't too bad being forgetful.
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  #8  
Old 09.12.2011, 11:51
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Time to buy shares of depressed printing press manufacturers. Remember, most countries in the Eurozone are not prepared to print money anymore.
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  #9  
Old 09.12.2011, 12:06
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

I'm just tossing a dart... I really have nothing base it on. What I do know is that something has to change.

Either (A) the Euro is abandoned entirely, or (B) the EU really becomes a United States of Europe in every respect with a single, centralized (con)federated government, instead of 27 separate governments...

Personally I see (A) more likely than (B).
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Old 09.12.2011, 12:21
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I'm just tossing a dart... I really have nothing base it on. What I do know is that something has to change.

Either (A) the Euro is abandoned entirely, or (B) the EU really becomes a United States of Europe in every respect with a single, centralized (con)federated government, instead of 27 separate governments...

Personally I see (A) more likely than (B).
Thankfully, the UK, Sweden, Hungary and Czech Republic refusing to sign the next treaty should put option B) to bed. Finally.
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  #11  
Old 09.12.2011, 12:52
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

I see a spiralling downwards.

I assume after the summit the credit ratings of some countries will be reduced.
Their sovereign bond interest rates will be increased.

More money will have to be pumped into the eurozone.

Consequently the credit ratings of some countries will be reduced.
etc.
etc.

I choose mid-Feb based on the point that this is when "since that's when a big chunk of bonds come up"
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  #12  
Old 09.12.2011, 13:27
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

I'd be very interested to see what effect this is all going to have on the €/chf peg........

If things start going a bit pear shaped, and the end appears likely, then will the SNB want to continue devaluing their currency?

Personally, I don't see the € failing "per se". Too much effort has been expended on this. What I can see happening is that the EU as we know it will pretty much collapse, and the 17 Euronations will try and go it alone.....
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  #13  
Old 09.12.2011, 13:46
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

I say It will last. there has been to much effort to keep it going. It would be to expensive to go back to the old currencies. I I remember it costs millions to just change back in 2001.
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Old 09.12.2011, 13:54
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Thankfully, the UK, Sweden, Hungary and Czech Republic refusing to sign the next treaty should put option B) to bed. Finally.
Au contraire, the fact that (especially) the UK is out makes it easier for the "hard core" to ditch the EU as we know it and set up a federal state. Time for Baroness Ashton to look for a new job methinks.
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Old 09.12.2011, 14:02
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

This is probably the most concise summation of why this summit is doomed to fail if not soon, then fairly soon - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...03.cms?curpg=1

The whole pretense of containing debt when growth will stagnate and at a time when the boomers really start retiring en masse, etc. is alarming. I'm not an economist, but if I were a country faced with agreeing to a plan to reduce 17 other country's debts that would cripple my economy and possibly lead to civil unrest vs. telling the other countries to take their currency and shove it, and go out on my own....I'd chose the latter and take my chances, especially if the benefits of being in the union were minimal.
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Old 09.12.2011, 14:05
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

From the Guardian today "EFSF issuing next week – after plans for 15y issue jettisoned and 10y auction almost failed in Nov, they're now trying 2bn of 3 month bills"

3 months

Must be more of this long term thinking they talk about
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Old 09.12.2011, 14:06
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Does anyone know if the new deutsche marks they are printing are the same or interchangable with the old ones?

I've got a good stash of old ones that I never got the chance to exchange at the time, so in hindsight maybe it wasn't too bad being forgetful.
huh???? they're printing new ones?
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  #18  
Old 09.12.2011, 14:07
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I say It will last. there has been to much effort to keep it going. It would be to expensive to go back to the old currencies. I I remember it costs millions to just change back in 2001.

Millions? That is a bargain considering the hundreds of billions being tossed around currently.
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Old 09.12.2011, 14:29
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Does anyone know if the new deutsche marks they are printing are the same or interchangable with the old ones?

I've got a good stash of old ones that I never got the chance to exchange at the time, so in hindsight maybe it wasn't too bad being forgetful.
No, ze new ones will have ze portrait of our much loved Führ ... eh, Angela

how is zat vor infoking ze law of ze Herr Gott Gewinnt?
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  #20  
Old 09.12.2011, 14:33
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Where the poll option for 'I haven't got the foggiest'.
More importantly for me are those 2 questions

a/ What will happen to the UK/£ - better or worse now that they've made a symbolic break and isolated themselves

b/ What will be the knock on effect for the CHF - how can it be prevented from taking off further and causing more trouble for Swiss industry, exports and tourism?
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