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Old 19.01.2015, 12:57
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Re: Risks of buying Euros now?

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That's over 90 years ago! Just how many Germans now alive actually experienced that?
I guess very few actually remember it, but it has left a big mark in collective memory which is why cranking up inflation is such a no-go topic in Germany.
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  #62  
Old 19.01.2015, 14:04
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Re: Risks of buying Euros now?

One of the options is to buy gold, though it does hold its own risks. I think Euro will most likely go down. Swiss economy is likely to be affected negatively, so even though I expect chf to go higher relative to euro, I expect overall depretiation of frank in 2-3 years term. Basically I would look for investment outside of the chf-euro family or even Europe more widely (including property in most of Europe).
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Old 19.01.2015, 14:12
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Re: Risks of buying Euros now?

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it has left a big mark in collective memory
Lots of little Marks to be precise
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  #64  
Old 19.01.2015, 15:58
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Re: Buy AUD now or wait for ECB announcement?

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Wanting to buy a heap of AUD. Exchange rate is currently 1 CHF = 1.40 AUD.

Do you guys reckon its better to do it now, or wait for the ECB announcement? Is the ECB announcement likely to effect CHF, or have a flow on effect to the AUD?

Obviously the the ECB announcement is likely to effect people wanting to buy EUR, but what about those wanting to buy other currencies such as AUD or USD?

Thoughts?

This is starting to remind me of "Who mants to be a millionaire" or "Deal or No Deal"

Opinion:

I think anything short of the ECB saying that they won't be printing money will not move the needle too much tomorrow. I think the priniting has been priced in to the current rate. I would think that the market might move about 5% in either direction at the most. What is probably more interesting is happening on Sunday and those are the Greek elections.....I think that hasnt been priced into the market


Fact:

I have bought a substantial amount of US Dollars and Euros so far in the last few days. I bought it now because I like the rate where it is right now. I think getting greedy now is a dangerous game and I would rather lock in my rates now than think about what could happen in either direction.
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  #65  
Old 19.01.2015, 16:11
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Re: Buy AUD now or wait for ECB announcement?

That's a wise approach. I recommend to do the same.

Sure, one could get more AUD or EUR for their CHF, should the ECB announces something that would make the CHF so much stronger.

But, well, that's a lot of maybes...

On the other hand, the rate you have today is a fact. You win 20% vs last week. Isn't that enough?
a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
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  #66  
Old 19.01.2015, 16:25
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Re: Buy AUD now or wait for ECB announcement?

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a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
I hear they like their birds in a bush down under.
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  #67  
Old 19.01.2015, 16:26
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Re: Buy AUD now or wait for ECB announcement?

Before you go all in on some wild currency speculation just think about where you are likely to spend your money. If it's in Switzerland then there is no point in exchanging it to AUD or any other currency for that matter. Because in the end all what you need is actually CHF. The fact that your CHF is now worth more in other currencies is irrelevant, just like you wouldn't go and buy CZK now, why should you buy AUD?

Now if you are most likely to spend your accumulated cash in Australia then that's a completely different matter, depending on how much you need you can then devise a strategy of how much you should exchange. Exchange today or next week you are more likely to get more AUD than you did last week. No one has a crystal ball and hind sight trading is always 20/20.

Buying AUD when you actually intend to spend your money in Switzerland is kind of pointless because if the CHF strengthens further against the other currency you would buy will see you lock in a loss when you have to convert it back to CHF.
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  #68  
Old 19.01.2015, 17:41
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Re: Buy AUD now or wait for ECB announcement?

Unless you're planning to take a long holiday or buy assets in Oz, don't really see this being a good trade! But everyone has their reasons. With the RBA set to make some tough decisions on interest rates in the coming months, I see potential for the AUD to fall further.

Also good reading: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...ter-slump.html
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Old 19.01.2015, 19:57
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Re: Buy AUD now or wait for ECB announcement?

Why would anything that the European Central Bank does affect the Australian Dollar?
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  #70  
Old 19.01.2015, 23:13
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Re: Buy AUD now or wait for ECB announcement?

As the SNB action was completely out of the blue and the QE has been discussed about for months it crossed my mind that there might have been some other surprise for the SNB that made them jump. We will see in their next report if we find any clues.
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  #71  
Old 20.01.2015, 11:11
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Re: Buy AUD now or wait for ECB announcement?

Actions by ECB should only influence the EUR rate to all other currencies. It should not move the AUD to CHF rate.


ECB aside, we will likely see volatility in the CHF fx rate for a bit longer as the euro-peg removal was a surprise to the market. So, if you are a currency trader, volatility is likely your friend. If you are not a trader and are ok with holding CHF for a while (living here, keep investments here, etc.) then I think the prospects of the CHF long-term are brighter than the AUD particularly in with the slump in pricing of commodities.


All just my opinion.
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  #72  
Old 20.01.2015, 18:05
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Changing CHF savings in euro

Hi guys i have a question about a topic which is mentioned a lot in last few days.
This is my situation: I have a savings of 39000,00 CHF in a bank in Croatia and not planing to do nothing with this money in next 3 years or so(saving to buy a small flat in Croatia in my hometown).
Because of the current situation I would like to change the money in euros.
My bank there is giving me for that amount 37381,31 (today of course). I think I loose a lot because I need to buy HRK first and then EUROS.
When I am looking exchange rates here in Switzerland I think I can get much more. What is your opinion and if you agree with me where should I do it here?

I live in Zürich.

Second thing is that I am not going to Croatia until 18th of february and can not take my money from a account.
I know that is hard to guess what will happen tomorrow and not in a month but should I go home take the money and do it quick as possible or just to go regulary as planned.

Please advise me)
Thank you a lot
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  #73  
Old 20.01.2015, 18:34
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Re: Changing CHF savings in euro

Oh here we go again...

Obviously you need to take the money out from Croatia and put it into an account where you can make a currency conversion without being taken for a ride.

If you are resident here in Zuerich, you could open an account with www.swissquote.ch, they should be very competitive in this regard. I am not associated with them just mentioning them as I used them before.

Any bank in Switzerland will also allow you to exchange your CHF into EUR but the spread is gonna be a lot higher. Essentially you will pay around 2% to 6% for the privilege compared to around 0.5% with Swissquote.

Others might recommend other solutions, I've heard others recommend currencyfair etc but I have never used any of these online Forex brokers so I can't really say anything.

No one can tell you if the rate will change or not in a months time, and even if they did would you trust them???
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Old 20.01.2015, 18:45
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Re: Changing CHF savings in euro

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Oh here we go again...

Obviously you need to take the money out from Croatia and put it into an account where you can make a currency conversion without being taken for a ride.

If you are resident here in Zuerich, you could open an account with www.swissquote.ch, they should be very competitive in this regard. I am not associated with them just mentioning them as I used them before.

Any bank in Switzerland will also allow you to exchange your CHF into EUR but the spread is gonna be a lot higher. Essentially you will pay around 2% to 6% for the privilege compared to around 0.5% with Swissquote.

Others might recommend other solutions, I've heard others recommend currencyfair etc but I have never used any of these online Forex brokers so I can't really say anything.

No one can tell you if the rate will change or not in a months time, and even if they did would you trust them???
About "these online Forex brokers"; I would be cautious about using any of these today until I was sure they did not have CHF related debts that might cause them to collapse
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Old 20.01.2015, 22:01
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Re: [Merged threads] Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg

Talking about getting a credit for investing in Euros, a possibility would be a Lombard Loan. You pledge financial assets, and, since it's a guaranteed loan for the bank, you get a low interest rate.

That would be a possibility, if you have assets you can provide as a warranty to the bank. The thing is that I don't really know what would be the maximum time for repaying the loan...
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  #76  
Old 20.01.2015, 22:28
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Re: Changing CHF savings in euro

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Hi guys i have a question about a topic which is mentioned a lot in last few days.
This is my situation: I have a savings of 39000,00 CHF in a bank in Croatia and not planing to do nothing with this money in next 3 years or so(saving to buy a small flat in Croatia in my hometown).
Because of the current situation I would like to change the money in euros.
My bank there is giving me for that amount 37381,31 (today of course). I think I loose a lot because I need to buy HRK first and then EUROS.
When I am looking exchange rates here in Switzerland I think I can get much more. What is your opinion and if you agree with me where should I do it here?

I live in Zürich.

Second thing is that I am not going to Croatia until 18th of february and can not take my money from a account.
I know that is hard to guess what will happen tomorrow and not in a month but should I go home take the money and do it quick as possible or just to go regulary as planned.

Please advise me)
Thank you a lot
Why not convert them in Kuna?
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  #77  
Old 20.01.2015, 22:55
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Re: [Merged threads] Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg

According to this here you can buy Swiss autobahn vignettes in Austria for CHF 33 instead of CHF 40!
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Old 20.01.2015, 23:42
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Re: Changing CHF savings in euro

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Hi guys i have a question about a topic which is mentioned a lot in last few days.
This is my situation: I have a savings of 39000,00 CHF in a bank in Croatia and not planing to do nothing with this money in next 3 years or so(saving to buy a small flat in Croatia in my hometown).
Because of the current situation I would like to change the money in euros.
My bank there is giving me for that amount 37381,31 (today of course). I think I loose a lot because I need to buy HRK first and then EUROS.
When I am looking exchange rates here in Switzerland I think I can get much more. What is your opinion and if you agree with me where should I do it here?

I live in Zürich.

Second thing is that I am not going to Croatia until 18th of february and can not take my money from a account.
I know that is hard to guess what will happen tomorrow and not in a month but should I go home take the money and do it quick as possible or just to go regulary as planned.

Please advise me)
Thank you a lot
Note that you can not take out (and bring in) more than 10 000 CHF in cash without declaring it. You will NEED to declare it at the border.

I am not sure whether bank transfer from Croatia to CH (to your own account) is possible. If you can do that (without any excessive transfer fees), then I would do exactly that. Then change it here to EUR (using Swissquote, or similar). Then you could transfer it back to Croatia.

If you don't plan on using the money for several years, then you could invest it into something (ETF or something similar), with small risk, and small rewards.
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Old 21.01.2015, 02:23
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Re: [Merged threads] Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg

Article in the FT today here about the fact that many FX brokers are based "off shore" and so avoid the sort of financial regulation they would be subject to "on shore"; many based in Cyprus.
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Old 21.01.2015, 04:32
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Re: [Merged threads] Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg

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According to this here you can buy Swiss autobahn vignettes in Austria for CHF 33 instead of CHF 40!
Funnily enough, I was about to post about my experience yesterday -- I bought a Swiss Autobahn vignette at a German Autobahn rest stop for €35 ... a discount of about 12%. I wonder who is wearing the difference, i.e. are the vignettes paid for in advance by the foreign outlets or just sold on behalf of the Swiss authorities, without forex risk?
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