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  #101  
Old 21.01.2015, 17:10
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Re: Risks of buying Euros now?

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Another example could be Montenegro or Kosovo: They use the €, but since they´re not official €-members they know what would happen to them if they go bust: No-one would help them, they´d be on their own. As a result they manage their finances responsibly.
Is it possible for Montenegro and Kosovo to raise finance in the money markets by issuing government bonds?
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  #102  
Old 21.01.2015, 17:26
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

I would change the 1000 chf to 1000 euros now and use it the next time you go on holiday to Euroland. I think it will settle at about 1.15 eventually but not for while yet.
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  #103  
Old 21.01.2015, 17:30
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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I think it will settle at about 1.15 eventually but not for while yet.
I would love to hear your reasons for plucking that number out of thin air
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  #104  
Old 21.01.2015, 17:36
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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I would love to hear your reasons for plucking that number out of thin air

My reason is the moderator told me I have to post more on EF if I want to continue posting my month pub quiz in the Commercial events section. I thought this might generate some interesting discussion
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  #105  
Old 21.01.2015, 18:46
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

I've personally been moved my CHF into GBP this week and will continue in tranches into next week. I'll then invest the money in funds when I feel comfortable, but I am happy with the current rate and want to 'lock it in'. I will keep some funds in CHF however.

The CHF to GBP is about as high as it's been in the last 10 years and the last time it got to this level (0.8 to the GBP) it dropped pretty quickly (due to the euro peg though I think). Either way, nobody knows where it's going but I'm happy to exchange right now . If it keeps going up, I'll carry on...
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  #106  
Old 21.01.2015, 19:46
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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I've personally been moved my CHF into GBP this week and will continue in tranches into next week. I'll then invest the money in funds when I feel comfortable, but I am happy with the current rate and want to 'lock it in'. I will keep some funds in CHF however.

The CHF to GBP is about as high as it's been in the last 10 years and the last time it got to this level (0.8 to the GBP) it dropped pretty quickly (due to the euro peg though I think). Either way, nobody knows where it's going but I'm happy to exchange right now . If it keeps going up, I'll carry on...
Assuming one is to transfer in lumps of ~ 1-5K CHF to GBP, any tips on where to get the best rates? Looking into XE Trade or Transferwise.. but maybe you know of a better way?
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  #107  
Old 21.01.2015, 20:13
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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Assuming one is to transfer in lumps of ~ 1-5K CHF to GBP, any tips on where to get the best rates? Looking into XE Trade or Transferwise.. but maybe you know of a better way?
I use Transferwise. It's fine for me, if a bit slow. You can't directly deposit the CHF funds to them so you have to login to your bank and then make the transfer using the Transferwise account details. This slows things down a bit and it usually takes about 3 days in total for me. You can choose a maximum % decrease in the mid-exchange rate - I usually use 1% (i.e., if CHF to GBP mid-rate drops more than 1%, the transfer won't be made).

I've heard good things about Currencyfair also, and I think you can actually put your money 'on the market' and so choose your own rate.
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  #108  
Old 21.01.2015, 21:09
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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I would change the 1000 chf to 1000 euros now and use it the next time you go on holiday to Euroland. I think it will settle at about 1.15 eventually but not for while yet.
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I would love to hear your reasons for plucking that number out of thin air
It seems like a realistic number based on the Noise from Bern

The head of the Swiss Department of Finance has suggested a similar level

http://www.20min.ch/finance/news/story/31022359

I would love to hear your feeling on the mater, You feel the Swiss will price themselves out of the market. Or warm up the Printer
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  #109  
Old 21.01.2015, 21:15
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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Ok, so after so much dust over latest SNB move, and the erratic exchange rate, the question is what is best thing to do if one has 1000 CHF. How to make the most of the profit? (note that the amount is irrelevant, the question is about the percentage of profit).




Any other suggestions?
Hooker plus booze plus bolivian nasal dust
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  #110  
Old 21.01.2015, 21:40
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

Seriously, exhanfe for usd... Then by usd denominated shares / adrs of large swissco's
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  #111  
Old 21.01.2015, 22:06
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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Seriously, exhanfe for usd... Then by usd denominated shares / adrs of large swissco's
It wont make any difference as the value will be almost identical to the CHF value of the Swiss shares.

Bear in mind there are only 3 large Swiss C0's, 2/3 of the SMI is just 3 stocks.....
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  #112  
Old 21.01.2015, 22:16
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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It wont make any difference as the value will be almost identical to the CHF value of the Swiss shares.

Bear in mind there are only 3 large Swiss C0's, 2/3 of the SMI is just 3 stocks.....
Swiss stocks took a dive... But not in adr form.
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  #113  
Old 21.01.2015, 22:58
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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Swiss stocks took a dive... But not in adr form.
You clearly have never heard of Arbitrage have you? The USD Value of the Swiss Stocks will be almost identical to the USD value of the ADR. Consequently the CHF value of the CHF shares will be almost identical to the CHF value of the ADR's. Anytime the difference exceeds a fraction of a percent a profit will be booked. The dealing cost of the ADR's will however be substantially cheaper.
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  #114  
Old 22.01.2015, 00:24
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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You clearly have never heard of Arbitrage have you? The USD Value of the Swiss Stocks will be almost identical to the USD value of the ADR. Consequently the CHF value of the CHF shares will be almost identical to the CHF value of the ADR's. Anytime the difference exceeds a fraction of a percent a profit will be booked. The dealing cost of the ADR's will however be substantially cheaper.
The point is you convert to dollars now, buy the adrs later
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  #115  
Old 22.01.2015, 09:47
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Re: Risks of buying Euros now?

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I think you've missed the point -- the elephant in the room is not the prospect of lower prices tomorrow suppressing demand today, but the crippling effect of deflation on debt.

With deflation comes lower prices -- lower prices lead (in a chicken-or-egg kind of a way) to lower salaries (lower income for manufacturers and retailers and eventually for consumers, too). But what happens to debt? It doesn't reduce, while the debtor now earns less to repay the debt. In real terms, debt inflates when purchasing power deflates.

Since the vast majority of individuals and companies hold debt (home loans, car loans, credit card debt, personal loans) -- and huge amounts of it -- the last thing governments want is deflation.

In the days of hyperinflation in Germany and Yugoslavia (the latter, only 30-odd years ago), one could pay off one's mortgage (taken out before inflation hit) with a day or two's wages. No exaggeration. Deflation is the opposite -- debt payments that once consumed, say, 20% of income, can rocket up to 30, 40, 60% and more of income, while the total amount owed also increases relative to income.
you are right that debt servicing is a concern in a low wage growth environment. people may have become used to debts being inflated away. however, in a deflationary environment, we should have low interest rates (or even be paid to take debt). the problem is then when people take bigger and bigger debts...
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  #116  
Old 22.01.2015, 12:39
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

I believe the "safest" investment is just to buy some of your next planned holiday/shopping destination's currency and use it then.

You could also stock on Amazon gift cards in Euro or GBP then use them later.
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  #117  
Old 22.01.2015, 13:07
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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It seems like a realistic number based on the Noise from Bern

The head of the Swiss Department of Finance has suggested a similar level

http://www.20min.ch/finance/news/story/31022359

I would love to hear your feeling on the mater, You feel the Swiss will price themselves out of the market. Or warm up the Printer
I'm not gonna take any speculative comments with any level of seriousness.
Realistic number based on noise?? I mean really?

I give you a realistic number based on fact. The market is pricing it at below parity right now = 0.9969 => realistic number = 0.9969, realistic range: [0.8 - 1.2], things might get worse before they get better..

The only way this changes is if the EUR miraculously strengthens, for this to happen the ECB has to do a complete U-turn on their plans for QE, or the European Economy growth accelerates significantly.

The SNB might intervene again but this would be completely nuts, but having done what they have (abandoning the peg), nothing will surprise me anymore. The SNB can literally do anything but they have to be careful not to lose any credibility they might have. Any new pegging / capping will be tested more aggressively now they showed they are not married to their policies as strongly as they say they are.

Everyone else is predicting the worst if the rate stays where it is. Well without any significant things happening that is what will happen... "The worst".

Of course we all hope but as we all know... Hope dies last.
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  #118  
Old 22.01.2015, 13:18
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

Following this with great interest, but very much as an amateur. I know it is speculation, but if the euro goes down after QE - and not taking into account the Greek issue - do you think the euro will immediately go down after announcement of QE today or do you think this will take a while. What do you all think?
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  #119  
Old 22.01.2015, 14:04
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Now a good time to open investment account?

Given the current strong franc and the low Swiss stock exchange value. Not being to savvy with finances.

Is now a good time to start investing in an investment account?

If so is UBS as good as any or would another bank financial institution be better?
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  #120  
Old 22.01.2015, 14:15
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Re: Investing now that the SNB has removed the Euro peg [Merged threads]

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...Or warm up the Printer
With the cancellation of the 1.20 minimum they´re just after sending printers into retirement. There wouldn´t be a need to warm them, they´re still pretty hot.

Some news report said they would´ve had to print 100billion(!) to keep the 1.20 in January alone. That´d be 20% of the ~500billion GDP. Obvisouly that can´t be sustainable in the long run.
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