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Old 21.01.2015, 12:39
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The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

I thought, instead of polluting threads all over the place with endless bickering and financial know-how c*ck waving contests, the topic should have its own thread where people are welcome to ask and answer all questions with respect to trading, investments, brokers, exchanges and so on.

Disclaimer: let me preempt everything by saying upfront that nobody in this thread takes responsibility for faulty, incorrect or malicious advice. Take everything you read here with a grain of salt and do your own research too. Assume this thread is like sitting in a bar below the stock exchange. You can ask for advice and you'll hear many stories. You'll be generally pointed in the right direction, but it pays to double check facts.

Also, let's keep discussions civil. I'll make sure to be really patient too and avoid getting into heated arguments if at all possible. In the end, I'm learning a lot too and while I know bits and pieces, I don't claim to be know-it-all.
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Old 21.01.2015, 12:49
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

I have thought about this long and hard my question is:-

What's the best execution method for a hedge fund manager?

Seriously is the copper price falling an indication of something more sinister going down in the future?

Why are the Dutch and German central banks repatriating large amounts of gold reserves locally from the US/France?

And where can I buy a tin foil hat.
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Old 21.01.2015, 12:54
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

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I have thought about this long and hard my question is:-

What's the best execution method for a hedge fund manager?


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Seriously is the copper price falling an indication of something more sinister going down in the future?


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Why are the Dutch and German central banks repatriating large amounts of gold reserves locally from the US/France?

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Old 21.01.2015, 12:58
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

I thought this was a great idea for a thread.

Why do people have to instantly trash it?
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Old 21.01.2015, 13:00
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

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I thought this was a great idea for a thread.

Why do people have to instantly trash it?
I'm sure there'll be a lot of both, but it's probably good to come to terms with stupid questions and unknowables right on page 1.
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Old 21.01.2015, 13:26
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

Copper, Seriously

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...s-lehman-event

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...ollapse-copper

+ then

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...ered-90-market
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Old 21.01.2015, 13:34
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

Can't manipulate the copper market - too big. Warehouse stores don't matter that much - there's tons in the ground and if that runs out we can run around Swiss nicking guttering.
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Old 21.01.2015, 13:53
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

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Can't manipulate the copper market - too big. Warehouse stores don't matter that much - there's tons in the ground and if that runs out we can run around Swiss nicking guttering.
It was more about China manipulating their own currency and lowering bank leverage by ending the subsidy. Chinas exposure to foreign currencies including the USD is being lowered. Read the article and stay with me.

I'm wondering if all these situations related to over-exposure on a national scale are adding up to a ed up forex market and USD et al going down the pan. Basically any govt that printed toilet paper in the form of QE will have to pay back some time in the form of future growth no? And if they cant pay you don't want to be holding the bog paper.

SNB made a clear signal about the Euro.

Something smells at the moment and I'm not sure what I guess we'll know soon enough.
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Old 21.01.2015, 14:49
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

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I thought, instead of polluting threads all over the place with endless bickering and financial know-how c*ck waving contests, the topic should have its own thread where people are welcome to ask and answer all questions with respect to trading, investments, brokers, exchanges and so on.
. . .
Great idea. so, fellow c*ck wavers, observers and laymen, tomorrow it is anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) will make an announcement regarding quantitative easing (more or less money printing). http://www.businessweek.com/articles...o-zone-economy

Of course, only a *select few actually know what, if anything, is to be announced. But, surely there is so much knowledge in this forum, with so many professional and hobby investors jockeying for position, and this opportunity to make a killing by forward guessing what is to happen, is simply too good to miss, that we must expect today many column inches of advice from you all on what trades to make today ?

*select few: In view of what happened last time (Jan 2012) at the SNB, it may be that the wife of Mario Drahgi, the head of the ECB, is currently making highly leveraged trades, which may give some clue as to what direction will be taken tomorrow.
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Old 21.01.2015, 16:35
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

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It was more about China manipulating their own currency and lowering bank leverage by ending the subsidy. Chinas exposure to foreign currencies including the USD is being lowered. Read the article and stay with me.

I'm wondering if all these situations related to over-exposure on a national scale are adding up to a ed up forex market and USD et al going down the pan. Basically any govt that printed toilet paper in the form of QE will have to pay back some time in the form of future growth no? And if they cant pay you don't want to be holding the bog paper.

SNB made a clear signal about the Euro.

Something smells at the moment and I'm not sure what I guess we'll know soon enough.
I see the main risks in:

1. Currency wars between the EU, Japan and China, with the US occasionally fanning the flames as they deem it in their interests. This is a one way downhill road covered with black ice straight to the bottom. The more the JCB prints, the more the Germans will have to print just to keep their products competitive. Both of these are basically pissing on China's cake too. It's more or less a classic prisoners' dilemma game theory scenario. The overall best outcome is if all 3 players agree, but there is a strong motivation for each side to betray the agreement if the rest stay honest.
2. Strong deflationary risks in the EU. Germany is not in a good shape. They need to prop up the lazy southerners so they resume buying German products. Without this, Europe is done for.
3. Hidden positive feedback loops in China that could cause some unexpected "localized" deleveraging to collapse the entire house of cards. China already wobbled a few times in various ways in the last few years. Then again, the Chinese are the masters of kicking the can down the road and money printing, so they might last a few more years.

If you look at QE as "mortgaging future growth" then yes, the hope is that future growth will be strong enough to offset the drag. Money supply inflation is paid for by those with savings today whose cash will tend to depreciate in the future due to increased inflation. Then again, if I had the choice, I'd choose the risk inflation over the more or less certainty of deflation.
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Old 21.01.2015, 16:49
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

This just in:

(Bloomberg) -- ECB Executive Board proposal circulated to Governing Council foresees asset purchases of 50 billion euros a month through the end of 2016, according to two euro-area central-bank officials who have seen the document.
Purchases would be focused on sovereign bonds and would not start before March, according to one official
Officials asked not to be identified because proposal is confidential
ECB spokesman declined to comment

NOTE: Policy makers due to begin meeting later today; ECB President Mario Draghi to announce Governing Council decision at press conference tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. Frankfurt time.

EUR tanking again.
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Old 21.01.2015, 17:13
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

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EUR tanking again.
I see the opposite in EUR/USD pair today (EUR got stronger). Either way, I'm sure the QE has been already priced in and we will see very little movement tomorrow.
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Old 22.01.2015, 14:56
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

Heads up 30 mins to go <bump> Merkel to speak shortly.
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Old 22.01.2015, 15:02
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

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I see the opposite in EUR/USD pair today (EUR got stronger). Either way, I'm sure the QE has been already priced in and we will see very little movement tomorrow.
I wouldn't be so certain it was priced in. Some expectations certainly, but it's not entirely impossible that Draghi will pull another "we'll do everything in our power" hot air stunt. I think people are a bit cautious this time.

Looks like they are going to announce further measures this time, but we'll only know once the news is out.
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Old 22.01.2015, 15:41
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

QE is on: EUR 60 bln

Edit: The risk sharing bit is somewhat of a downer. I'm not sure how that will be interpreted by the markets. Seems like QE with strings attached...

Last edited by xynth; 22.01.2015 at 16:25.
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Old 27.01.2015, 23:38
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

Fatmanfilms I hope you still have your apple shares punt on because Apple just went ballistic on some stellar earnings.
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Old 28.01.2015, 00:05
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

I read some news anticipating that Apple might be taking a huge hit on currency losses this quarter to the tune of 2 billion.

Great idea for a thread btw..

One of my favorite daily reads is Seekingalpha.com. It is however somewhat US centric. This article today gave some good food for thought reviewing a few European Blue Chip ideas for some personal portfolio considerations.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2844...ean-blue-chips

I've followed your comments on the FX trading losses on another post and very much appreciate your insights. Thanks, I learned a lot from those posts.
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Old 28.01.2015, 00:54
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Re: The Trading Advice Megathread (such profit, much volatility)

Trading advice: ignore most trading advice on this thread.
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