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  #201  
Old 01.07.2016, 15:32
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Re: Investment fund

I just re-checked my tracker sheet. I reset it on 6 June and measure on a USD basis.

Since that date, my Fundsmith holdings are down ~2.5%. My own portfolio of shares are up ~1%.
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  #202  
Old 01.07.2016, 15:35
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Re: Investment fund

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I just re-checked my tracker sheet. I reset it on 6 June and measure on a USD basis.

Since that date, my Fundsmith holdings are down ~2.5%. My own portfolio of shares are up ~1%.
Is this because of the poor GBP to USD conversion?
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  #203  
Old 01.07.2016, 15:52
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Re: Investment fund

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Is this because of the poor GBP to USD conversion?
Yes, the rate was bout 1.45 in early June.
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  #204  
Old 01.07.2016, 16:11
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Re: Investment fund

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I just re-checked my tracker sheet. I reset it on 6 June and measure on a USD basis.



Since that date, my Fundsmith holdings are down ~2.5%. My own portfolio of shares are up ~1%.


Remember the time of the pricing all the USD values are from yesterday, so more difficult to know exactly
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  #205  
Old 18.07.2016, 16:25
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Re: Investment fund

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Remember the time of the pricing all the USD values are from yesterday, so more difficult to know exactly
Indeed. Usually comparison is best done with week-end's prices, like on sunday.
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  #206  
Old 09.09.2016, 18:47
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Re: Investment fund

Filling out a fundsmith form as I write, quite a large document.
Can I invest a set (modest) amount each month with them?
I don't see that option on the form for opening an account?

Also can the police certify and stamp a copy of my passport? Can you just drop into a police station and ask or this is something more formal that you need to pay for?

thanks in advance
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  #207  
Old 09.09.2016, 19:38
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Re: Investment fund

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Filling out a fundsmith form as I write, quite a large document.
Can I invest a set (modest) amount each month with them?
I don't see that option on the form for opening an account?

Also can the police certify and stamp a copy of my passport? Can you just drop into a police station and ask or this is something more formal that you need to pay for?

thanks in advance
The UK fund will only accept payments from a UK bank account. Regular payment by someone non resident is also non standard.

The Luxembourg fund will take transfers from anywhere, however they are not set up for regular payments.

A Notary will for a fee certify your passport, I doubt the Police will. Banks in CH generally say no, but I have had success in France & also with a notary not charging. I think this was because he did not realise any Anglo Saxon could speak French.
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  #208  
Old 09.09.2016, 19:48
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Re: Investment fund

I just went through the setup process. I paid GBP into my account, so I'm assuming I paid into the UK fund. I used xe.com for my transfer from CHF to Fundsmith's GBP account.

I went to a notary locally (googled notary dietikon, first hit), it turned out to be 20CHF per document, but got everything notarized and copied nicely.

A little amazed at how this works, 17% increase since end of May! I'm pretty sure you can just top up when you need by letting them know ahead of time.
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  #209  
Old 09.09.2016, 20:31
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Re: Investment fund

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I just went through the setup process. I paid GBP into my account, so I'm assuming I paid into the UK fund. I used xe.com for my transfer from CHF to Fundsmith's GBP account.

I went to a notary locally (googled notary dietikon, first hit), it turned out to be 20CHF per document, but got everything notarized and copied nicely.

A little amazed at how this works, 17% increase since end of May! I'm pretty sure you can just top up when you need by letting them know ahead of time.
42.74% up over 12 months in GBP 24.4% year to date. 86.5% over 3 years, It's amazing the no. of people who have been critical of enthusiasm for this fund over the last 3.5 years. For the last 2 years Hargreaves Lansdown have stated in their investment review there are better funds to invest in (They don't pay fees to HL), all of their recommendations have done worse.
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  #210  
Old 10.09.2016, 15:44
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Re: Investment fund

Any ideas about when to enter the market? I have been out of the market for a while and looking to go back in. We have US, French, German election coming up. Sit them out?

My bank advised not to rush in to the market
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  #211  
Old 10.09.2016, 17:50
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Re: Investment fund

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Any ideas about when to enter the market? I have been out of the market for a while and looking to go back in. We have US, French, German election coming up. Sit them out?

My bank advised not to rush in to the market
More money is lost by being out of the market than by being in it..... which is why small investors & fund managers always underperform by trying to time the market.
Having said that mini crashes happen as regular as clockwork probably twice a year. We have had 4 in the last 22 months. The market could easily rise 15-25% before the next sell off, or it could fall tomorrow. Markets did fall on Friday so we may be in a mini sell off now.
Since none of those elections are 'new information', they are priced into the market, markets generally do well when there is a new US president. Markets generally go up........ It always seems like a bad time to invest, either the market has been going up or it's been falling for some time, if being comfortable was the way forward it would be easy to make money. If you hold shares for 25 years you will see at least 1 sell off of 50%, just buy more when the sale sign is up.
Interestingly people feel confident buying a house with 5 - 20 times gearing when prices have been rising, just because interest rates are low.
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  #212  
Old 11.09.2016, 12:05
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Re: Investment fund

Thanks FMF

Agree on the timing and long term view. Any case I would go in in moderate steps. I understand you have a considerable amount invested with them. Do you use any leverage instruments on the side like options, futures etc for protection or turbo's?
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  #213  
Old 11.09.2016, 13:07
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Re: Investment fund

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Thanks FMF

Agree on the timing and long term view. Any case I would go in in moderate steps. I understand you have a considerable amount invested with them. Do you use any leverage instruments on the side like options, futures etc for protection or turbo's?
I don't use options or leverage of any kind. It's one of the advantages of Fundsmith, they don't do it either, so fund costs are lower & returns are better because of this. Clever strategies generally don't work which is why most funds under perform the index they aim to beat.
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  #214  
Old 11.09.2016, 13:25
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Re: Investment fund

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More money is lost by being out of the market than by being in it..... which is why small investors & fund managers always underperform by trying to time the market.

Usually,the market goes down (or "sideways") once I start investing and goes up when I don't.
Also, when I invest, the stuff I have invested least in goes up most and vice-versa...
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  #215  
Old 11.09.2016, 13:26
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Re: Investment fund

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More money is lost by being out of the market than by being in it..... which is why small investors & fund managers always underperform by trying to time the market.
I also feel this way.

However, a friend of mine said recently: "It's stupid to buy now, when indexes are at their record high. You should buy when there's blood on the streets." I replied: Maybe the prices are at record high, but maybe they will never be that cheap again. And how long does it take until the next big crash? 5 years? 10? He said it will be much sooner, because there are no reasonable grounds for further growth.

I didn't know how to respond to that.

By the way, how do you feel about such technical analysis tools as SMA or MACD in realtion to Long Term buy/sell prediction for broad ETF? Does it make any sense, or it's just too unreliable?
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  #216  
Old 11.09.2016, 13:54
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Re: Investment fund

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I also feel this way.

However, a friend of mine said recently: "It's stupid to buy now, when indexes are at their record high. You should buy when there's blood on the streets." I replied: Maybe the prices are at record high, but maybe they will never be that cheap again. And how long does it take until the next big crash? 5 years? 10? He said it will be much sooner, because there are no reasonable grounds for further growth.

I didn't know how to respond to that.

By the way, how do you feel about such technical analysis tools as SMA or MACD in realtion to Long Term buy/sell prediction for broad ETF? Does it make any sense, or it's just too unreliable?

Just look back at the last 2000 years & you will see that for most of the time markets are near or breaking all time highs.

You won't see cheap whilst interest rates are so low, of course once interest rates are raised the economy will be stronger.....

I don't think Warren Buffet bothers with technical analysis & he has done better than most. He looks to buy great companies at a good price & only where he understands how they make their profits. That is rather similar to what Terry Smith is doing with a much smaller amount of money, which gives an advantage.
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Usually,the market goes down (or "sideways") once I start investing and goes up when I don't.
Also, when I invest, the stuff I have invested least in goes up most and vice-versa...
Thats because you were attempting to time the market & being clever, if fails more often than it works, so just invest when cash is available. Remember the rest of the market does not care what price you paid for a stock, so it's better not to focus on that no.
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  #217  
Old 11.09.2016, 14:15
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Re: Investment fund

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You won't see cheap whilst interest rates are so low, of course once interest rates are raised the economy will be stronger.....
Could you please elaborate? Why will the economy be stronger if they raise interest rates? And in which case would they raise them? What I remember from macroeconomics class, is that they raise the interest rates to cool down the market and lower them to provide stimulus for growth.

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I don't think Warren Buffet bothers with technical analysis & he has done better than most. He looks to buy great companies at a good price & only where he understands how they make their profits.
OK, but please look at the chart below. As a refresher:
  • buy signal = if MACD line crosses the SIGNAL line from under
  • sell signal = if MACD line crosses the SIGNAL line from over

It was really good at predicting buy-sell signals for the last two crashes, and only recently it has generated a false sell signal. What do you think?

https://s14.postimg.io/fx3lec1hr/MACD.png

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That is rather similar to what Terry Smith is doing with a much smaller amount of money, which gives an advantage.
So is Fundsmith planning to introduce an ETF, that you can just buy it without registration? It is really interesting how often I agree with your point of you, so maybe you're really onto something with Fundsmith...

Last edited by 3Wishes; 11.09.2016 at 15:05. Reason: changed huge image to link
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  #218  
Old 11.09.2016, 14:37
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Re: Investment fund

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Could you please elaborate? Why will the economy be stronger if they raise interest rates? And in which case would they raise them? What I remember from macroeconomics class, is that they raise the interest rates to cool down the market and lower them to provide stimulus for growth.



OK, but please look at the chart below. As a refresher:
  • buy signal = if MACD line crosses the SIGNAL line from under
  • sell signal = if MACD line crosses the SIGNAL line from over

It was really good at predicting buy-sell signals for the last two crashes, and only recently it has generated a false sell signal. What do you think?

https://s14.postimg.io/fx3lec1hr/MACD.png



So is Fundsmith planning to introduce an ETF, that you can just buy it without registration? It is really interesting how often I agree with your point of you, so maybe you're really onto something with Fundsmith...
I don't believe the stimulus does whats intend. Far too many rich old people who will only spend 'income' who have virtually nothing to spend. I believe the recovery will happen after rates are raised. You just need to look at Japan to realise that low interest rates don't work long term.

Looks like the prediction comes after the market has already fallen about 10%. You have also ignored both 2 BUY & 2 SELL signals that occurred at the time..... It's much easier to use hindsight & say it works, if it really worked there would be loads of fund managers who would benefit.

I don't think Fundsmith would issue an EFT, they don't 'do derritives'

Last edited by 3Wishes; 11.09.2016 at 15:05. Reason: changed huge image in quoted text to link
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  #219  
Old 11.09.2016, 14:46
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Re: Investment fund

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Looks like the prediction comes after the market has already fallen about 10%. You have also ignored both 2 BUY & 2 SELL signals that occurred at the time.....
Yes, I only looked at strong signals, where the MACD line went strongly under or over the SIGNAL line. So you may lose 10%, but in the end you're still saving. In 2001, selling for 1800, buying for 1400. In 2008, selling for 2100, buying for 1700. It drastically improves the rate of return. I know that it cannot be that easy in reality, I'm just trying to understand where is the fault in my logic...
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  #220  
Old 11.09.2016, 15:08
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Re: Investment fund

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Yes, I only looked at strong signals, where the MACD line went strongly under or over the SIGNAL line. So you may lose 10%, but in the end you're still saving. In 2001, selling for 1800, buying for 1400. In 2008, selling for 2100, buying for 1700. It drastically improves the rate of return. I know that it cannot be that easy in reality, I'm just trying to understand where is the fault in my logic...
Deciding that the signal is strong enough at the time........... If it worked funds, or Hedge funds would be more successful. Plenty of technicians are employed in the fund management industry most funds actually attempt to do this on a daily basis looking at individual shares, sectors, currencies.

Being uninvested for the 10 best days during a 30 year investment career will likely cost you more than being invested throughout. I invested 100 a month in a UK pension from 1986. I paid in a total of 7,200, huge fees were deducted from the plan at the time. Today it's worth 73,994.28. With investments timescale is far more important than timing.
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