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Old 14.07.2015, 03:55
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Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

Hi,
I note the many banker/ investment specialists here and wish to seek your views. I have been watching the Swiss franc going up against the Aussie dollar since the Greek issues were raised. it was 1.39 about a week ago and now I see it is 1.42. I am looking to transfer some significant savings into our mortgage back home. Does anyone have a view on whether I should wait a bit longer? Will it only get better with the euro zone issues still ongoing or am I a fool to think I can time these things? How high could it go ? How long should I wait ? or is it too hard to call and I should just do it now? Many thanks for any advice.
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Old 14.07.2015, 07:29
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

Every single time I've listened to "expert opinion" and acted on it, the market has moved in the opposite direction. I transferred a large sum into AUD a few weeks ago, at 1.39, because this was "definitely" as good as it was going to get.

Put simply, nobody knows. 1.42 is a great rate. It was less than 1.00 not so long ago! Just go for it, today.

By the way, I'm still happy with my 1.39. As I mentioned, it's way better than I would have got a few years ago.
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Old 14.07.2015, 08:42
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

I am not an expert but I'd bet my money that the Greek issues are far from over. It won't be a quick move and it won't be a decisive one anytime near - this whole Greece agreement is rotten and won't work out... so in a year or two or three will the situation be about the same as now.
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Old 14.07.2015, 09:05
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

The AUD is expected to drop a little further against the USD. The bottom floor for AUD CHF seems around 1.40 but could go a little further if AUD weakens against USD. But also watch the CHF USD relationship. 1.42 is a very good rate. If it was me i would take it. Its of course up to you to decide if you can grab a better rate by waiting or not.
Here is a good chart for watching AUD CHF. Seems the AUD is gaining a little strength today.
http://www.dailyfx.com/aud-chf

Last edited by AnAustralian; 14.07.2015 at 09:20.
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Old 14.07.2015, 09:35
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

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How high could it go ? How long should I wait ? or is it too hard to call and I should just do it now? Many thanks for any advice.
How long can you wait?

Nobody can guess what will happen, but my bet would be that it will not break past the peak from January, which was 1.44.

What I would do is to transfer half of it right now, and the rest hunting for peaks over the next months or however long you have to complete the transaction. This will shield you against any large jumps in currency exchange rates and at the same time may help you get a better average rate. Whatever you do, you are very unlikely to catch the very peak.
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Old 14.07.2015, 10:18
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

look at the price for commodities, especially steel/iron ore in this case, which are at 20-year lows right now. Iron ore producers are starting to cut back on production, perhaps this will help prices.
If commodities move higher, than the AUD will get stronger.
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Old 14.07.2015, 10:28
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

When experts or traders tell you what they expect, they are telling you the way they believe 90% of the market & they themselves are positioned. As the market is based on an equal no of buyers to sellers the very obvious won't actually happen quite as the expect.

There was a perfect opportunity 3 years ago when Apple was apparantly finished, I mentioned on the forum that it was cheap & I wished to invest 90% of my net wealth in Apple, I also hoped the market would fall further whilst I bought my stake. Move on 3 years & Apple stocked more than doubled, the USD also significantly strengthened. Remember 5 years ago the USD was dead & Gold would reach $5000 thats where the smart people were investing their money.
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Old 14.07.2015, 11:11
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

Why not drip feed over a few months / years so you get an average price?
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Old 14.07.2015, 11:45
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

Every banker will tell you to exchange now. One, they don't know where it will be, and two, they only make money if you use *their* service. So instead of letting you walk away and possibly trade with another bank, they'll recommend you exchange now while you're at their counter.

With AUD-Libor around 3%, I'm assuming you pay 5% or more for your mortgage while your CHF earn essentially zero. So let's say you have two options (just an example, you have plenty more than that), you can:

A) exchange now, reduce mortgage and save the 5% p.a.
or
B) exchange in one year (or in two or five years)

If the AUD falls 5% by this time next year the two are roughly equivalent (based on such a limited time frame). If it falls more, B is the better choice, otherwise A is better. In two years it's 10%, in five years 25%.

So how likely is it for the AUD to fall further, in what time frame? Nobody knows, but if you exchange now you know fairly well in advance how much you'll save on reduced interest.
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Old 14.07.2015, 11:55
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

The strength of the AUD is more often than not buoyed by Australian exports of raw materials to China. Those markets don't seem to be really good at the moment, so I don't have much optimism for the AUD right now. I set our company's price lists for 2015 at AUD $ 1.45 for a 1, so I'm in the band presently. We will continue to sell in the currency and sit on the proceeds, but we're not about to start changing it back to something more globally worthwhile in the short term.
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Old 14.07.2015, 16:20
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

Oh, and Aussie12345, if you're not already doing so, make sure you use a forex broker -- the banks will rip you off! I use Ozforex -- exceptionally good exchange rates (very small spread, i.e. low margins, and no fees), and have been very happy with them. On a sizeable transfer you could save literally thousands of francs/dollars using them, compared to a bank.
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Old 14.07.2015, 17:30
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

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Oh, and Aussie12345, if you're not already doing so, make sure you use a forex broker -- the banks will rip you off! I use Ozforex -- exceptionally good exchange rates (very small spread, i.e. low margins, and no fees), and have been very happy with them. On a sizeable transfer you could save literally thousands of francs/dollars using them, compared to a bank.
Thank you so much. I have heard the term "forex" but have no idea what it means. Can you dumb it down a little for me? How do I access it? It sounds like an Aussie company? Do I send the cash to them (after setting up an account or something?).
At the moment we have a plain swiss bank account and just do electronic transfer to our plain Aussie account ( anz) and then to our mortgage. We are talking about 50k ch (this is quite a lot to us to pay down in one hit but perhaps not much in the world of big finance!) . Is it worth it for this amount?
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Old 14.07.2015, 17:34
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

forex = foreign exchange
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Old 14.07.2015, 17:42
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

Hi Aussie,

I've just been doing the same thing, transferring CHF to AUD. Look at the xe.com 10 year CHF-AUD graph. Apart from the spike just after the 1.2CHF/EUR cap was removed, 1.42 is the best it has been in 10 years. IMO it isn't going to go up more than a few percentage, but could easily go down a fair amount.

As for the trading, I looked into it a few weeks ago and decided on currencyfair. You setup an account, register in your chf and aud bank accounts and then set up a deposit. You do a normal Swiss-Swiss bank transfer to currencyfair and then they have your money on file. You can then trade at a defined rate using the market place. That changes your CHF->AUD. You then get currencyfair to deposit it into your AUD bank account.
It is fairly low fees and it is one of the few ones I have found where you know exactly what the exchange rate that will be applied ahead of time.

Forex is just short for foreign exchange. Ozforex is a currency exchange company, like currencyfair and many others. Avoid using banks, western union etc as they end up costing alot more.
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Old 14.07.2015, 17:50
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

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Thank you so much. I have heard the term "forex" but have no idea what it means. Can you dumb it down a little for me? How do I access it? It sounds like an Aussie company? Do I send the cash to them (after setting up an account or something?).
At the moment we have a plain swiss bank account and just do electronic transfer to our plain Aussie account ( anz) and then to our mortgage. We are talking about 50k ch (this is quite a lot to us to pay down in one hit but perhaps not much in the world of big finance!) . Is it worth it for this amount?
Yes, for CHF 50k it is absolutely worthwhile. Actually, for any amount. Ozforex is owned by Macquarie Bank so it's highly reputable. For transfers <$10,000 (approx.) you'll pay a fee, but still less than Swiss banks will charge you.

You need to set up an account with Ozforex (not a bank account, just a trading account). This will take a few days as you need to send proof of ID, but it's a once-only process and worth it! Then, to make a transfer, you book the currency exchange online, then they call you to confirm (and you take the opportunity to ask for a slightly better rate, which they usually give you), then you have a couple of days to pay your CHF via internet banking into their bank account. (Trust them! They are fully regulated.) A day or two later, they pay AUD into your nominated account. No fees at all from Ozforex for larger transactions.
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Old 14.07.2015, 18:02
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

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(and you take the opportunity to ask for a slightly better rate, which they usually give you).
Gotta love the Aussies...... Maaaaaate.... My swiss husband nearly died when he found out he could bargain at Myers. Try that at Manor and they would call the police

So how much is a slightly better rate??? Just so they don't laugh at me!

Last edited by 22 yards; 15.07.2015 at 05:35. Reason: Fixed quote formatting
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Old 14.07.2015, 18:08
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

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Is it worth it for this amount?
You're looking at around 2-3% saving in exchange rate fees and another 20-25 CHF on transfer fees comparing to bank rates.
With 50k CHF, this is a saving of ~1000-1500 CHF. Well worth it in any case.
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Old 14.07.2015, 18:11
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

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Gotta love the Aussies...... Maaaaaate.... My swiss husband nearly died when he found out he could bargain at Myers. Try that at Manor and they would call the police

So how much is a slightly better rate??? Just so they don't laugh at me!
You can bargain at Myers?!?!
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Old 14.07.2015, 22:42
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

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Yes, for CHF 50k it is absolutely worthwhile. Actually, for any amount. Ozforex is owned by Macquarie Bank so it's highly reputable. For transfers <$10,000 (approx.) you'll pay a fee, but still less than Swiss banks will charge you.

You need to set up an account with Ozforex (not a bank account, just a trading account). This will take a few days as you need to send proof of ID, but it's a once-only process and worth it! Then, to make a transfer, you book the currency exchange online, then they call you to confirm (and you take the opportunity to ask for a slightly better rate, which they usually give you), then you have a couple of days to pay your CHF via internet banking into their bank account. (Trust them! They are fully regulated.) A day or two later, they pay AUD into your nominated account. No fees at all from Ozforex for larger transactions.
Does trading account maintenance cost, and if so, how much? What about closing the trading account? Do they charge for transfers, inbound or outbound?
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Old 14.07.2015, 23:24
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Re: Swiss franc to Aussie dollar: How high can it go?

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You can bargain at Myers?!?!
Just mentioning DJ's puts them in a lather. I also show my age by mentioning my loyalty since they were Farmers......way, way back when I was using stone tablets for my shopping list.......
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