Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Help & tips > Finance/banking/taxation
View Poll Results: Will the price of gold end 2016
Above $1000 per troy ounce 20 71.43%
Below $1000 per troy ounce 8 28.57%
Voters: 28. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 26.12.2015, 12:23
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 13,715
Groaned at 209 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 11,027 Times in 6,254 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
What amuses me is that intelligent people continue to believe that stocks and commodities are investments rather than gambling. People have a series of wins and believe they're doing better than the market, when in reality most just make lucky guesses or maybe get access to a piece of information a bit before the rest of the world. It has nothing to do with any fundamentals such as availability of the gold or demand (in a I'm-going-to-use-it-in-my-product sense).

As I implied in my previous post, it's a crapshoot. Gold will certainly rise at some point, just as it will also drop. Which one is happening when Phil's bet is called, well, Las Vegas probably has an answer.
Well it depends if you think of stocks as lottery tickets, or ownership of a business. Great businesses will always win over time. You just need to look at what happened between 1900-2000 to see that however bad the outlook looks companies will thrive over time.

I like to buy companies that have already won the game, so no need to guess or be lucky.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 26.12.2015, 14:17
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 11,472
Groaned at 246 Times in 157 Posts
Thanked 13,323 Times in 5,675 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Well it depends if you think of stocks as lottery tickets, or ownership of a business. Great businesses will always win over time. You just need to look at what happened between 1900-2000 to see that however bad the outlook looks companies will thrive over time.

I like to buy companies that have already won the game, so no need to guess or be lucky.
i guess you need to bet/guess that the company you think is a winner is actually a winner and will continue to be a winner in the future.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Phil_MCR for this useful post:
  #23  
Old 26.12.2015, 23:31
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Zurich
Posts: 362
Groaned at 126 Times in 52 Posts
Thanked 202 Times in 112 Posts
Burner Burner Burner Burner Burner
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
If you insist I suspect 935-975 range, should be much lower on fundamentals but it's not currently a volatile market.

What always amuses me is that high earning above average intelligence Ex Pats will never accept that either house prices or gold will ever fall & the stock market as always too risky so will fall History shows the majority opinion is wrong more often than it's right, which is why I am always interested in the opinions of EF members. The majority opinion is wrong as those people already have their long positions......... I made a fortune on Apple, EF was the main reason for investing at that time. Nobody has mentioned Apple recently, price has been weak so it's way too early to pile back in!
Like most things....
The price of gold has been proven to be manipulated, fun-duh-menthols, have nothing to do with it, ffs.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Burner for this useful post:
  #24  
Old 27.12.2015, 11:18
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 13,715
Groaned at 209 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 11,027 Times in 6,254 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Like most things....
The price of gold has been proven to be manipulated, fun-duh-menthols, have nothing to do with it, ffs.
Fundamentals are what I value it on & over time will prove correct. Plenty of fools will pay a higher price hoping to find an even greater fool at a later date.
As Benjamin Graham said and I am paraphrasing here, in the short term the market is a voting machine & in the long term it's a weighing machine. Warren Buffet the worlds best stock picker worked for Mr Graham.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 27.12.2015, 11:43
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Baselland
Posts: 581
Groaned at 9 Times in 7 Posts
Thanked 390 Times in 244 Posts
spalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Warren Buffet the worlds best stock picker worked for Mr Graham.
It is said that Warren Buffett's dislike of gold as an investment is based on its lack of usefulness.

IMO this is based on two false ways of thinking.
1) Owning gold is NOT an investment. It is more a form of insurance.
2) Gold's major usefulness is as an exchange medium, ie an alternative form of money. This fact is recognized by millions of people on this planet and has been for a very long period of time.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 27.12.2015, 11:59
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 13,715
Groaned at 209 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 11,027 Times in 6,254 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
It is said that Warren Buffett's dislike of gold as an investment is based on its lack of usefulness.

IMO this is based on two false ways of thinking.
1) Owning gold is NOT an investment. It is more a form of insurance.
2) Gold's major usefulness is as an exchange medium, ie an alternative form of money. This fact is recognized by millions of people on this planet and has been for a very long period of time.
Perhaps is more an investor than speculator, he only wants to invest something he understands & gold he can't understand as an investment.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 27.12.2015, 12:12
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 13,715
Groaned at 209 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 11,027 Times in 6,254 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
*) I predict it will require over 2000 US Federal Reserve notes to purchase one ounce of pure gold.

Serious question, is 90% of your net worth in Gold & if not why not?

I am very interested about how much Gold the Gold bulls hold per head. 10k, more than 100k or most likely zero.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 27.12.2015, 13:39
aSwissInTheUS's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Zurich area
Posts: 5,026
Groaned at 40 Times in 38 Posts
Thanked 7,062 Times in 3,212 Posts
aSwissInTheUS has a reputation beyond reputeaSwissInTheUS has a reputation beyond reputeaSwissInTheUS has a reputation beyond reputeaSwissInTheUS has a reputation beyond reputeaSwissInTheUS has a reputation beyond reputeaSwissInTheUS has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Like most things....
The price of gold has been proven to be manipulated, fun-duh-menthols, have nothing to do with it, ffs.
We may agree on the fact that it is manipulated, but we may disagree on the direction of manipulation.

Anyway, it is interesting to read the gold bugs and there constant whimming and moaning about the a manipulation to the low side. Considering what fatmanfilms and Benjamin Graham said:
Quote:
Fundamentals are what I value it on & over time will prove correct. Plenty of fools will pay a higher price hoping to find an even greater fool at a later date.
As said and I am paraphrasing here, in the short term the market is a voting machine & in the long term it's a weighing machine.
You gold bugs should be full of joy with all this bargain deals on gold.

To be in spirit with the original question, I am more interested in the following question:
At the end of next year will you get more or less gold for platinum?
At the end of next year will you get more or less gold for your pay check?
__________________
Dunkel war’s, der Mond schien helle, schneebedeckt die grüne Flur, als ein Wagen blitzesschnelle, langsam um die Ecke fuhr.
Drinnen saßen stehend Leute, schweigend ins Gespräch vertieft, als ein totgeschoss’ner Hase auf der Sandbank Schlittschuh lief.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank aSwissInTheUS for this useful post:
  #29  
Old 27.12.2015, 13:45
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Baselland
Posts: 581
Groaned at 9 Times in 7 Posts
Thanked 390 Times in 244 Posts
spalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Serious question, is 90% of your net worth in Gold & if not why not?

I am very interested about how much Gold the Gold bulls hold per head. 10k, more than 100k or most likely zero.
See PM!
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank spalebärg for this useful post:
  #30  
Old 28.12.2015, 15:44
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Zürich
Posts: 1,785
Groaned at 41 Times in 31 Posts
Thanked 2,049 Times in 922 Posts
ZuriRollt has a reputation beyond reputeZuriRollt has a reputation beyond reputeZuriRollt has a reputation beyond reputeZuriRollt has a reputation beyond reputeZuriRollt has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

My bet's more on lego:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...-and-gold.html
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank ZuriRollt for this useful post:
  #31  
Old 28.12.2015, 17:54
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: The World
Posts: 619
Groaned at 98 Times in 52 Posts
Thanked 394 Times in 214 Posts
Capo is considered unworthyCapo is considered unworthyCapo is considered unworthy
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Has your hero actually been a gold investor, therefore loosing money or has he actually made a significant punt (20% plus of his fund) in gold. More likely just noise to try to recoup his losses.
Have you exhausted all your Warren Buffett quotes of the day?

Gold is used for diversification primarily as a way to counter eventual mishaps from a central bank and/or currency devaluations.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 28.12.2015, 18:27
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 13,715
Groaned at 209 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 11,027 Times in 6,254 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Have you exhausted all your Warren Buffett quotes of the day?

Gold is used for diversification primarily as a way to counter eventual mishaps from a central bank and/or currency devaluations.
So your telling me your hero has no idea what he wants to invest in, so invests in something that he does not really like because other people do it. Get real hedge funds are not about 'diversication'
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 28.12.2015, 18:51
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: The World
Posts: 619
Groaned at 98 Times in 52 Posts
Thanked 394 Times in 214 Posts
Capo is considered unworthyCapo is considered unworthyCapo is considered unworthy
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
So your telling me your hero has no idea what he wants to invest in, so invests in something that he does not really like because other people do it. Get real hedge funds are not about 'diversication'
Who is my hero?
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 28.12.2015, 20:56
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 13,715
Groaned at 209 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 11,027 Times in 6,254 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Who is my hero?
I confused you for someone else.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 28.12.2015, 22:53
xynth's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Zurich
Posts: 753
Groaned at 37 Times in 24 Posts
Thanked 1,679 Times in 502 Posts
xynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

I've done the analysis and on a buy and hold basis, gold adds next to no diversification to a bond/equity portfolio (at least looking back to 1970). This is compounded with the fact that many people look at the spot price of gold, which is utterly meaningless because it is almost never tradable and does not include the very real carry (storage) costs over time.

Attached is a comparison of two account curves, one with equal weighted bonds+equities and one equal weighted bonds+equities+gold. The simulation assumes monthly rebalancing, transaction costs of 0.1% and no reinvestment of returns. The last point is important, because with reinvestment the portfolio without gold leaves the one with gold so far behind in the dust that it is not even funny. The average annual returns of the simple portfolio is ~8.1%, adding gold cuts this to 6.3%.

For the propellerheads, here are a few more summary stats:

Strategy Sharpe Sortino Max DD (%) Kurtosis Skew b+e 0.937 1.790 -25.645 1.267 -0.070 b+e+g 0.744 1.396 -26.062 2.968 -0.024
Before someone says that gold is a good hedge in crises, allow me to point you to the skewness statistic, which is mildly less negative with the addition of gold, but it is certainly not an improvement I'd consider even remotely a "hedge". Both portfolios have almost zero skew, but are a touch more likely to get an occasional big (relatively) downmove. A good hedge would be something that makes the skewness positive without sacrificing risk adjusted performance (Sharpe).
Attached Thumbnails
gold-price-prediction-screen-shot-2015-12-28-21.38.56.jpg  
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank xynth for this useful post:
  #36  
Old 28.12.2015, 23:23
xynth's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Zurich
Posts: 753
Groaned at 37 Times in 24 Posts
Thanked 1,679 Times in 502 Posts
xynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Just an addendum:

That 1.8% difference per year between the two scenarios might seem small, but accounting for compound interest, the difference over the 44 years of the sample period is staggering. The gold "hedged" portfolio would've returned ~1400%, while the "unhedged" bond+equity portfolio would've done ~3000%.

Let me also just highlight this. If you invested $100'000 into this strategy in 1970, you'd now have over $30'000'000 (yes, thirty million dollars) on your hands. This includes a handful of crises too! Quite the retirement money, eh? I'd say very few asset classes can beat this for the speculative portion of your retirement savings.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank xynth for this useful post:
  #37  
Old 29.12.2015, 11:28
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 13,715
Groaned at 209 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 11,027 Times in 6,254 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
Just an addendum:

That 1.8% difference per year between the two scenarios might seem small, but accounting for compound interest, the difference over the 44 years of the sample period is staggering. The gold "hedged" portfolio would've returned ~1400%, while the "unhedged" bond+equity portfolio would've done ~3000%.

Let me also just highlight this. If you invested $100'000 into this strategy in 1970, you'd now have over $30'000'000 (yes, thirty million dollars) on your hands. This includes a handful of crises too! Quite the retirement money, eh? I'd say very few asset classes can beat this for the speculative portion of your retirement savings.
That beats London house prices by a hug margin.

What would the no's be if you were 100% equities, totally ignoring bonds?
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 29.12.2015, 14:29
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 11,472
Groaned at 246 Times in 157 Posts
Thanked 13,323 Times in 5,675 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
That beats London house prices by a hug margin.

What would the no's be if you were 100% equities, totally ignoring bonds?
UK houses as an investment is a bit harder to compare than just looking at the prices due to tax and leverage:

1. Leverage: risk increases, but your return may be 5x the 'headline' return.
2. Tax-free use. From other investments, you need to deduct the tax-grossed up costs of rent that would have been avoided if you lived in a house. For someone in a high tax band, the impact of this is massive and you would be hard pressed to find something else which has the same post-tax yield.
3. Tax-free disposal of PPR
4. Tax-deduction on mortgage interest (when MIRAS applied)
__________________
By replying to this post, you hereby grant Phil_MCR a royalty-free license to use, in any way, anything posted by you on the internet. If you do not accept, stop using EF and delete your account.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Phil_MCR for this useful post:
  #39  
Old 29.12.2015, 14:35
xynth's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Zurich
Posts: 753
Groaned at 37 Times in 24 Posts
Thanked 1,679 Times in 502 Posts
xynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Gold price prediction

Quote:
View Post
That beats London house prices by a hug margin.

What would the no's be if you were 100% equities, totally ignoring bonds?
If I remember correctly, I've run a comparison analysis between Swiss real estate and US stocks and real estate came out similar in terms of risk/reward, but required serious leverage to get the absolute returns of stocks: prices in Zug - crystal balls anyone?

So ignoring other considerations, if you want to match the returns of stocks and can choose between real estate and stocks, well, choose stocks .

Wrt your question: I'll run the sim when I get back home. My expectation is that absolute returns will go up, and risk adjusted returns will go down.

Last edited by xynth; 29.12.2015 at 15:32.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank xynth for this useful post:
  #40  
Old 29.12.2015, 16:32
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Vaud
Posts: 934
Groaned at 74 Times in 44 Posts
Thanked 915 Times in 552 Posts
yacek has an excellent reputationyacek has an excellent reputationyacek has an excellent reputationyacek has an excellent reputation
Re: Gold price prediction

Now that the stocks and bonds are inflated due to large money supply - shouldn't one wait a few years until the presumed stock bubble bursts?
Reply With Quote
Reply




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The best prediction for 2015 Wallabies Daily life 12 01.01.2015 16:58
6-12 month prediction for strength of CHF vs. USD M. Ploymi Finance/banking/taxation 11 11.01.2013 12:07
Prediction for SVP/UDC in 2011 eddiejc1 Swiss politics/news 9 20.01.2011 10:46


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 22:06.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0