My wife saw something in one of the freebie papers yesterday, I saw this link also http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/...ap5148575.html
Is this a good time to pick up some cheap shares in UBS ?

Nick

Isn't UBS bigger than HSBC? I am not a bank expert but was just curious (biggest banks 2005 link).

Maybe after the recent sub prime shenanigans and huge write offs UBS has slipped a little?

Minyanville talks about it too.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/.../index/a/17702

I have dealt with both banks at an Investment Banking level and to me it would seem like a good fit. UBS are strong in many areas HSBC are not (good IB franchise, Prime brokerage, structured products). There are some people already saying never, ever, but the RBS purchase of ABN shows these mega mergers amongst banks are possible. Don't expect them to have a free run at it though. Deutsche have kept their nose relatively clean and may show interest. As for UBS being bigger than HSBC (I assume we are talking in terms of Balance Sheet) I am not sure. Someone else can check, but a well managed smaller bank has a greater chance than taking over a poorly managed larger competitor than the other way around. I worked at Natwest when RBS took over, which I believe was significantly smaller. Also I am not sure if BoS was larger than Halifax when they merged.

I think in general you'd want to buy a business clients are flocking to, not one that clients are deserting in droves.

Inertia is a wonderful thing, and despite UBS' problems I think it is still viewed as THE house for HNWIs.
I think in general in banking one wants to buy an established shop on the cheap, regardless of present problems (such as JPM & BS, or to a lesser extent BoA and Countrywide) than going shopping in a toppy market.

That's not what asset flows suggest.

It's all about the balance sheet.

HSBC are supposedly very well capitalised - whereas UBS have been resorting to a series of measures to recover lost capital.

It would be an interesting move - probably the end of the age of complacency for UBS employees in Switzerland. Obviously the investment bank is different and more dynamic (and are the ones who racked up the huge losses ) but when I worked in the WM&BB part it was almost reminiscent of the UK civil service at times.

Interesting times ahead.......

the asset flow in the commercial bank may suggest that, but that's a tiny part of the business...

You mean the private bank, corporate clients and retail, right? Actually, it's a huge part of their business and about the only thing holding UBS up right now. And will become even more important as UBS shifts resources away from investment banking. As Shorrick rightly says, asset flow looks grim and probably will for some time.

Ze devil's advocate, HSBC was never bigger than UBS in terms of market cap. Before this whole subprime mess started UBS was second to HSBC in Europe but that's obviously changing with every new slip of UBS shares...

the commercial bank is the retail... that's where the outflows seem to be

Wrong.

(Extra useless characters)

HSBC was simply better managed throughout the crisis, at least according to this gentleman: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0421/140.html

Is UBS bigger?: According to forbes, HSBC is the strongest company in the world... so maybe not...
http://www.forbes.com/2008/04/02/wor...obal_land.html

If it is a smart move? Well, I leave that to the people who actually do understand banking

something tells me I know more about it than you...

Shorrick's right. We'll have to wait until August for an updated reading, but 1Q fresh money to UBS' private bank was 5.6 billion Francs, a laughable fraction of previous quarters. UBS only managed that by tallying money taken up in the US by the former PaineWebber into the total (which they usually don't). Most predictions from experts like analysts and fund managers are calling major 2Q outflows in the private bank.

Something is wrong then.

My guy at UBS tells me this is due to HNWIs factoring counterparty risk in and spreading their assets! Yeah right.

But the issue seems to me its very hard as an individual reliably to benchmark the performance of any of these wealth management offerings be it from UBS, Julius Baer or whoever.. any guidance appreciated.

Daniel

So Mr. vei1977, are you groaning because I'm right or because the clients are leaving you?

I could add insult to injury, and tell you where they're moving their assets to...

What sort of guidance are you after? A league table will only be of limited help because those managers who have created the best returns in a bull market are not necessarily the people you want to give your money to in a bear market.
I think the soundest piece of advice is do EVERYTHING you can to minimise your tax liability first and for most 'normally wealthy' people this is pretty straight forward and can be researched by picking up a couple of the weekly/monthly financial journals when you see they are running a tax special.
Caveat to the above, don't invest in something that will put a significant amount of capital at risk just to gain a tax advantage.
I know more about the German system, and need to get to know the Swiss, but in Germany I managed to find out about ~100% tax write off media (film) funds and the tax advantages of owning property from Focus Money and talking to colleagues (admittedly working with other traders meant the financial advice was probably a little more detailed than if I worked in telcos).
Unless you have really silly money to invest I feel the best return is offered by doing your own homework, finding out the relevant structures or funds, calling the institutes that offer them direct and explain you will invest but you want the 'initial charges/brokerage returned. You can ask wealth managers / brokers to return initial charges. You would be surprised how many will agree. This I feel will have a far bigger effect on your net financial position than the few basis points difference between your money to a good manager and an exceptional manager.