But wouldn't IRs have to rise quickly and sharply in order to hurt the property market. iirc the problem with property before the IR drop was lack of liquidity. Even if IRs rise to 5-6% it probably wouldn't hurt too much but it would make new purcheses at current prices less attractive, but I wouldn't imagine a full on collapse.

having just shopped my moobs off in the last two weeks, I have to thank the UK for bringing the £ to its knees.

Anyone know if letters to 10, Downing Street need stamps nowadays?

IMO, the problem with UK property is that it's still overpriced compared to what people earn.

I don't know what the figures are for the number of people in the UK on SVRs is, but it must be the highest in history - IRs have been abnormally low for a long time now and everybody who has come off the usual 1-3 year deals has gone onto an SVR because they're so cheap. This means that the UK housing market is probably more sensitive to IR changes than it has ever been.

The BoE is keeping IRs lower than they have been for centuries by buying a massive amount of gilts. Check out this scary chart of buyers/sellers of gilts:


Overseas investors are net sellers of gilts now, the BoE is pretty much the only buyer. When QE ends, if there is nobody to buy the gilts IRs will go up substantially, as will everybody's mortgage who is on an SVR - immediately.

UK house prices could go up a little bit. But they could go down a lot.

full disclosure: i'm planning on buying in the UK in 2011 or 2012, mainly for this reason

I got a GBP 4K Payrise, for doing nothing at all.

That chart is indeed scary.

There's another point here which the UK housing market hasn't experienced before (at least as far back as I can remember). At the beginning of 1980 interest rate rises caused a housing slump (my mortgage went up from 12% to 15%). Again somewhere between 1989 and 1992 interest rates went up (in my case from ~9.5% to 16% (briefly)) and the housing market slumped drastically.

Nowadays even modest IR rises will cause much larger percentage rises in repayments and much grief will ensue.

I think you have a faulty memory

The problem with property was the inflated prices and up to 125% mortgages. All justified by the unprovable assertion that property prices could not fall. Not to mention CDSes, SPVs, CDOs, etc.

Another thing which is is "different this time™ is the number of folks who bought property with the specific aim of renting it out. The traditional way to buy rental properties (BTL - Buy To Let) was via commercial mortgages, but the banks relaxed lending conditions in this sector. If I remember correctly it was the huge level of BTL loans which brought the Bradford and Bingley down.

This chap* says he's selling 700 properties before interest rate rises bring “slaughter” to landlords in the U.K. housing market.

* I seem to remember this chap threatening to sell up a year or more ago, but this time it appears he really means it.

The crucial question these days is, how low USD will end up?!
Fundamental shows it will go further down and stay low for some years due to resons like, US deficit, less interest for countries and individuals to hold USD, sell off waves,...

But on the other hand dollar collapse can cause instability in the world for economical and political reasons.

Good to know your ideas on this issue.

International powers are trying to intervene to allow for an "orderly decline" of the USD. The key point is "how fast", more than how low.
See it this way - if the USD would lose, say 10% in one week it would cause a great deal of damage to int'l companies (e.g. Nestlè, Roche, Novartis, etc), not the least because it takes time to adjust prices, to change selling strategies, etc.
On the other hand a "soft" landing for the dollar would allow everyone to set up appropriate measures (maybe make some profit on the side) - the system would have some wiggle room, timewise, to adjust.

The first example is akin to a 8.0 magnitude quake, the second one to a tsunami warning - given enough time you can save lives, and maybe reduce material damage.

Paul

"The IMF recently revised its predictions of global losses...
...with more than half of all bank writedowns still to be recognised,
its analysts expect big losses still to come, especially in the West.

$470 Billion dollars of expected writedowns in E.U

$420 Billion dollars of expected writedowns in U.S

$140 Billion dollars of expected writedowns in Asia

$126 Billion dollars of expected writedowns in U.K."


Good luck!!!
.

It's at 1.57 francs to the pound at the moment. When I changed some money about a month ago it was at 1.675. Got an extra 150 francs or something from that

I can offer better rates than 1.57

Where are you getting that quote from?

sounds like an airport/bank/post office type of offer! scamming thieving B@$T@&D$!!!

Where's the best place to buy GBP in Zurich?

Actually I just tried the online calculator at UBS at it gave 1.55-170 . . . quite a spread.

Who offers a better deal? (This might have been covered elsewhere)

I offer a better deal

it's often upsetting, after a week or more of full-on shopping in the UK, that the credit card bill we return to is lower than usual.

Bee Zarrrrrrrrr...!

I managed to completely fill the car and get stopped at the border, though. But it ended up OK as the customs guy did not fancy itemising my little 'n large purchases..... "how much were these six packs of crisps?" - "4 for £2 mate, Tesco!" - "err, please leave"

Go on then??

Royal mail currency exchange seem to be the best from the places I've searched! You can get upto 1.62 though at interchange (never heard of them)

Where else does one get currency from?

We're waiting??

xe.com, but there is a fixed transfer charge, and it takes a while to set up an account.

Credit Suisse also appear to offer a better deal then UBS.

http://www.oanda.com/convert/classic...ate_fmt=normal