Any economic whizzkids got a clue how the GBP CHF rate is going to change in the next few months? Are there any forthcoming financial announcements which could effect it either way? We need to transfer some money from the UK to finance a property purchase and the £ has been more or less increasing over the last few days. Is it likely to continue that trend?

To be honest I've no idea, but I did use the weak pound to my advantage by clearing all of my existing debts in England - saved myself CHF1500.

Since I've been in Switzerland the exchange rate seemed to hover around CHF2.1 - 2.4 to the pound - until this sub prime thing kicked in.

I would imagine that the pound will recover, but how long it'll take is anybody's guess.

It seems that the long term trend is looking upwards, as the pound seems to me, was oversold over the past few months.

But as you said you never know what could happen with this crisis going on.

I also think the longer term trend for the pound will be to strengthen. The Swiss National Brank has said publically that they will intervene to prevent the Swiss Franc from appreciating too much without, for obvious reasons, saying when or what is too much. I also think that there are some positive signs on the UK economy but they have not been reflected yet in employment numbers. If the economy improves so

The caveat (and there is always a caveat to these types of amateur prognostications) is that the market believes the rate will stay the same. The 6 month forward rate for sterling is basically the same as the rate today. And, if the UK banks experience further big problems as they try to clean up their balance sheets then we could see a weakening.

Good luck.

The Swiss National Brank has indeed said that they will intervene to prevent the Swiss Franc from appreciating too much - but it is difficult for them as investors see the CHF as a safe currency and keep the price high.

Now if Eastern Europe tanks, UBS goes belly up, and takes down Credit Suisse, then the CHF will sink like a stone ala Iceland. Same goes for the UK. The US is perhaps able to print money (debt) and spend itself out of this recession (jury still out on that one) but the UK desperatly needs things to get better soon, else it is in serious trouble.

So it is anyones guess. I am sticking with CHF.

There's been some discussion here:

SNB does not want the franc to appreciate

CHF foreign exchange highs and lows

My own views haven't changed. I think we're stuck in a range approx 1.60 to 1.70 which is pretty much where we've been for the last three months.

SNB will only intervene to prevent CHF appreciate against Euro (that's stupid, by the way) not against british pound. The pound will probably sink more on a long term against all important and not so important currencies. It is not only that it happens, the british government wants to get rid of its debt and that's why they'll do nothing to stop this devaluation.

Besides UK was/is almost bankrupt. A second bigger Iceland.

That's incorrect.

I can't offer any advice on what the exchange rate will, or won't do but regarding the practicalities:


We did the same thing the year before last.
Whatever you decide to do, make sure you have fixed the transfer method fully long before you plan to transfer.

I watched painfully for a few days as the pound slipped against the franc whilst I waiting for one of the forms to get signed by my bank.

We used an online company to do the transfer with a phone call from me sealing the deal at a time and date of my choosing.

When transferring money for a house deposit, the difference between exchange rates over a two month period can make the difference between being able to purchase a new car in addition to putting the desposit on the house, or using the bus.

Good luck!

I know what you're saying but only if you're lucky and the exchange rate goes your way. The real risk to the upside/downside here is "event risk" ie something unexpected which the market hasn't priced in. So why do it all at once? GBP has strengthened recently another option would be to FX some now and do the rest later if you're feeling lucky or want to take a gamble that sterling might have a break out. That way you're not putting all your eggs in one basket and it's an opportunity to take some advantage out of the recent run. Just something to consider. Trying to pick the peaks and troughs is a mug's game in these markets. I certainly couldn't predict them.

I guess you're right - it's a very different situation now than what it was this time last year and before that.
Money in UK accounts was also earning more interest then than now which was a factor which probably isn't as important now.

However, the recommendation for getting an instance transfer mechanism in place still holds, even if you are transferring in tranches.

What you don't want is the inability to transfer quickly when things are looking good.

Can't argue with that. Makes a lot of sense.

Assuming that the people who believe that the US prinitng of $ will lead to hyperinflation in the US are right, would the high inflation spill into economies that have been more restrictive with QE, such as the EU?

The official motivation to keep the CHF low would be IMHO to protect the Swiss company exporting in the euro zone.

Do you think there are another currencies SNB will track? What if they evolve in different directions?

Yes. They've already sold swiss francs against the dollar. And FX markets don't work in silos. There's such a thing as currency correlation which means intervention in one currency pair like CHF/USD or CHF/EURO will have knock on effects to other currency pairs like CHF/GBP.

Credit Suisse stays bearish on GBP
due to the combination of a current account deficit and very
low interest rates and expect EUR/GBP to reach parity over
12 months.

Not in our case, it's not THAT much. The £ today is the highest it's been since Jan and I hope the trend continues for at least a couple of weeks. We were thinking of trading it via www.xe.com or www.oanda.com. Anyone used either of these and how do they compare, service-wise? Any other recommended Forex traders?

Hi,

well as I am paid in Swiss Francs and when I visit the UK it is because I am going on holiday naturally I want the pound to be weak. I think we should all enjoy the period of the strong Franc and hope that it does not damage the swiss export industry too badly.

Have fun

Martin

I have used CurrienciesDirect a few times.

They used to offer free transactions but not sure whether this is still the case. Service was very efficient. They can perform a transaction when a target price is reached or when you notify them.
However, as a caveat, I ought to add that I have nothing to compare them to.

get good spreads with these guys and CH based:

http://www.wechselstube.ch/index.php?id=167