Hi,from san Francisco,ca. I like to know why the Sw franc has lost some much value against dollar,despite the us dollar lost of value against the Euro.
Looks the swfranc is about 30% below real value.
I am thinking to start buying swfrancs to protect de value of my savings,is this a good idea?
Thank you
Pat

I think you got things the wrong way round - the Dollar is very weak against the Swiss Franc at the moment. Both the Dollar and the Franc are weak against the Euro.

Yup. The $ is in the toilet right now.

If you buy everything in dollars, which I understand is the common practice in San Francisco, what difference does the value of the euro/Swiss franc/pound/yen etc. make to you? The dollar will go up again anyway. It's just a short-term American plot to cheat oil producing countries who get their oil revenue in US dollars....

Actually, many of those countries have, or are in the process of changing from the $ to the Euro, due to the increasing strength of the Euro. Long term, the dollar is doomed I think at least for the next two years, with the impending housing bubble (and debt to China) about to burst the American dream.

I would not buy Swiss francs, the CHF has been steadily losing against the Euro for a year now. I would buy Euro. The only thing in favour of the Franc is its value should major international crises occur within the next few years, i.e., the fall of the dollar instigating a global stock crash, or bird flu, instigating the same thing etc.

Reason I say this is that during the mini crash in early March, Swiss francs were immediately sought after. Note however that by now the losses again far outweigh that temporary gain. Nevertheless, the CHF still seems regarded as a safe haven, but only in times of impending doom....

Wow. Now that's a conspiracy theory I haven't heard yet. It'd be better to say that the US keeps it artificially low to slow the growth of the trade deficit.

Do you live here? I am also from S.F. The dollar will go up,it always does.

Please explain who you see swapping currencies will protect the value of your savings?

Thanks,

Jim

I believe he means, protect the value of his savings in dollar terms .
The dollar will continue to weaken, the US economy is a bit of a mess and has a monster trade deficit . I would suggest keeping you CHF income in CHF.

Only Iran has mentioned it may start pricing in Euro, sorry Deutschmark, IIRC
Just google "iran euro oil"

But what happens if (when?) Spain, Italy and Greece all bomb out of the Euro...

GBN, can't see it happening in the near future. If you look at the increase in € holdings by the likes of the Chinese against the $ over the last five years, it is something that if I was American, I would start to get more than a little worried.

I recommend anyone that is interested in Europe v US from an economic standpoint to read "The United States of Europe" by TR Reid : http://www.amazon.com/United-States-.../dp/1594200335 pretty compelling arguments.

I was given a copy by a bell boy at the Hilton in Philadelphia last year, he was an Economics major & saw Europe as the future ... weird conversations I have had waiting for taxis ...

I think hedging your USD holdings with European currencies (e.g. 20% EUR and 30% CHF) is a good idea. I would wait until the dollar hits a local peak, though, maybe in a month or two, before continuing the downward trend that many see coming. I predict a short term bounce.

Guys, please learn to spot a pump'n'dump spam posting when one arrives.

I note the article has been written by a guy who has now written one post.

There was a good article in the new edition of The Atlantic about the status of the dollar. About two years ago they published a rather dark scenario in which the dollar bombs and the US economy tanks because of, among other things, the trade deficit.

The carry trade is a major factor in the CHF ( as like theJPY) is a cheap funding currency so major hedge funds like to sell the CHF againsthigher yielding currencies . These carry trades are trillions of USD in notonal . A 5% unwinidng ( due to some kind of global risk aversion) would see the CHF strenghten quite significantly. SO the argument about the CHF is no longer a safe haven currency is not quite true .

Quite interesting but US worst case with rest of world best case.

It assumes that European and Chinese politicians/leaders will do things the right way and not bollix up things...

Examples: Italian debt, French taxation/public sector, Spanish (maybe UK) property bubble, Chinese pollution/population, German lack of consumer demand...

Only one assumption made, global risk aversion .
Triggered by anything, be it another sell off in china or US . But yes weakness in Euope will not be great for the CHF...As even more poeple will be happy to ssell the CHF .
European slowdown ahead of a US slowdown is unlike though . Asian slowdown will impact the USD before EUR

This is what I mean, only the early peak in March represents the safe haven buying, soon after the CHF was sold off again.