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  #121  
Old 01.09.2015, 14:26
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Re: Tesla Model S

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Where do you get the idea it's free fuel? You have to pay for the electricity somehow, even if it's generated from solar panels.
According to Musk the Superchargers will remain free for life - well let's see what happens in 2020 when Tesla plans to build 500k vehicles per year. You can't always pay the cost of the recharging these cars, so I'm skeptic as how long the Superchargers will be free.

Nevertheless staying at the superchargers are unconvenient enough for most to rather charge their cars at home. Previously we complained that a smartphone has no week-long battery life, like the old Nokia 6110i - somehow the industry has overcome that fear and now it's common sense to just charge your phone every (other) night.

In the Scandinavian region it is also very common to see power outlet in every parking lot as well - they use it for auxiliary heating, but it could be well used for charging your car. Considering that most of us don't drive all day, a regular power outlet will be enough for 90% of the needs of general public. So there could eventually be several layers of automotive needs: trucks, professional drivers and just the regular A-B crowd, which could mostly live on EV's. Well, I'll just dream on :-)
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  #122  
Old 01.09.2015, 15:18
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Re: Tesla Model S

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well a large petrol engine (BMW M5-V10) 10 yrs ago easily had a consumption of 12-15l/100km, nowadays they have around 10-12l/100km, so in that sense you do lose effective range if you keep the car for 10 years nevertheless.

Tesla's own navigation engine automatically calculates the superchargers on your trip, so you don't have to look for charging stations if you go more than your available charge.
If your figures were correct, everyone would be jumping into 10-year-old V10s!

Presumably you wanted to say that fuel consumption increases over time, not decreases (12L/100km is a lower fuel consumption rate than 15L/100km). Or do you just mean that modern cars have better fuel consumption than older cars? If so, the same argument probably applies to electric vehicles (only time will tell) , but that's not the point under discussion -- the fact is that the capacity of today's automotive batteries degrades alarmingly over time, with normal use.

Also, having your Tesla knowing where supercharger stations are is all well and good, provided there is actually a supercharger conveniently located en route -- and not a 50 km detour away.

Anyway, I wish I could get 12-15L/100km in my car!
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  #123  
Old 01.09.2015, 16:05
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Re: Tesla Model S

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If your figures were correct, everyone would be jumping into 10-year-old V10s!

Presumably you wanted to say that fuel consumption increases over time, not decreases (12L/100km is a lower fuel consumption rate than 15L/100km). Or do you just mean that modern cars have better fuel consumption than older cars?

Also, having your Tesla knowing where supercharger stations are is all well and good, provided there is actually a supercharger conveniently located en route -- and not a 50 km detour away.

Anyway, I wish I could get 12-15L/100km in my car!
I understood it that if you compare like for like between now and 10 years ago, cars nor more efficient, so holding on to old technology is less efficient - and therefore more costly on a per KM running cost basis only.

Agree with you on the superchargers - perfect if they are exactly on your route - a bugger if they're not.

I got 15.8l/100km from one of mine on the last tank - which was mostly city driving - and that is with over 500ps on tap - you must be doing something wrong!!!
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  #124  
Old 01.09.2015, 16:59
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Re: Tesla Model S

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I understood it that if you compare like for like between now and 10 years ago, cars nor more efficient, so holding on to old technology is less efficient - and therefore more costly on a per KM running cost basis only.
yep that's the one. Except in the Tesla you can replace the battery pack, alas it's not cheap (~12-15k USD if the sources are right). The electric motor will not get more effective as it's already very near 100%. We will see if the new battery tech will fit the old Teslas in 10 years at all...
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  #125  
Old 01.09.2015, 17:08
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Re: Tesla Model S

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yep that's the one. Except in the Tesla you can replace the battery pack, alas it's not cheap (~12-15k USD if the sources are right). The electric motor will not get more effective as it's already very near 100%. We will see if the new battery tech will fit the old Teslas in 10 years at all...
12-15k is a lot of money to invest in a 10 year old car - which is worth about 12-15k

I don't think we are still on the bleeding edge of EV - we have moved on from there and solutions will improved. Formula E is upping the power this year and hopes for the 17/18 season to have no car changes in the races. I think we are a long way from pure EV cars overtaking FF cars. Hybrids take the best and worst of both worlds and pull them together into a compromise solution that can either be better or worse than the base product - depending on your view point.

A move toward decoupled FF engines should be the immediate goal as it will softly move drivers away from the FF addition into a more EV based world. Then, as the infrastructure improves and battery tech improves, we can move to fully EV solutions - with FF cars being left as play things.

I felt the Fisker Karma was on to something and BMW using similar technology in the i3 shows it has a future. We know the next gen 7-series won't have i-Powertrains - the question is whether it will be the next 5? 3? Or the 7 that hasn't even hit the drawing board yet?
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  #126  
Old 01.09.2015, 17:14
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Re: Tesla Model S

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12-15k is a lot of money to invest in a 10 year old car - which is worth about 12-15k
EV's don't depreciate quite that much. Much of the value loss comes from unreliable mechanics, filters, oil change periods and the quality of used lubricants - of which an EV has basically hardly any (suspension and brake oil, that's pretty much it). You cannot hurt an EV by flooring it when idle or when cold, you can't change the oil in it as it has none, etc...

And the interior of a 10-yr old car nowadays can be immaculate if taken care of properly. We'll see in 2020 what a 1st gen Model S will be selling for.
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  #127  
Old 01.09.2015, 18:14
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Re: Tesla Model S

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I got 15.8l/100km from one of mine on the last tank - which was mostly city driving - and that is with over 500ps on tap - you must be doing something wrong!!!
About the same for my car, which also generously offers >500 PS. Don't know what you drive, but mine is huge and heavy (ish) so actually I'm quite pleased with around 16L/100 km. I also have a 5.0 V8 offering 200 PS less, returning about the same fuel consumption figures!
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  #128  
Old 01.09.2015, 18:16
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Re: Tesla Model S

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EV's don't depreciate quite that much. Much of the value loss comes from unreliable mechanics, filters, oil change periods and the quality of used lubricants - of which an EV has basically hardly any (suspension and brake oil, that's pretty much it). You cannot hurt an EV by flooring it when idle or when cold, you can't change the oil in it as it has none, etc...

And the interior of a 10-yr old car nowadays can be immaculate if taken care of properly. We'll see in 2020 what a 1st gen Model S will be selling for.
What evidence do you have on low depreciation? I looked at the Pious and Hybrid versions of the Golf and Auris and the petrol/diesel models. Not only do the hybrids and electrics cost more, they depreciate faster. The reason is battery life.

The same will be true of the Tesla. Toyota, VW et al give an 8 year guarantee on the batteries and after that the car is worthless/unsellable, as they require new batteries fitting running into CHF1000s. VW dealer quoted a ballpark figure of CHF10,000 for replacement batteries on the Golf E - and what do they do with the old batteries??

Tesla's idea of battery swopping may allow "cheating" on battery life as you keep changing them.

For me the Tesla is ground-breaking and like the Dyson bagless vac. has a great marketing story, but the range, charging time and life of the batteries means I'm out.

I reckon by 2020 there will be better alternatives - and that's another reason not to be an early adaptor...
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  #129  
Old 01.09.2015, 18:32
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Re: Tesla Model S

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What evidence do you have on low depreciation? I looked at the Pious and Hybrid versions of the Golf and Auris and the petrol/diesel models. Not only do the hybrids and electrics cost more, they depreciate faster. The reason is battery life.
E-Smarts are quite on price after 20-30k km with 2 yrs
http://www.autoscout24.ch/de/autos/s...st=1&vehtyp=10

Nissan Leafs as well:
http://www.autoscout24.ch/de/autos/n...st=1&vehtyp=10

I guess we don't have 10-yr old vehicles yet.
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  #130  
Old 01.09.2015, 19:17
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Re: Tesla Model S

The Prius' performance degradation in 10yrs or 300k km's are less than 5%
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/n...d-up/index.htm

I've read a Tesla driver report about 5% degradation after 150k kms on the clock.

Tesla is planning the gigafactory to "reduce battery costs by at least 30%", so that means even if you buy the car for an eternity (20 years), you might have to replace the battery unit just once, for say, 8'000 USD, in 2025. And the remaining original battery at 70% performance can still serve your home with solar panels - it won't be completely worthless, say it still sells for 3'000 USD.

--> 5'000 USD costs in 20 years? I'd sign that on any petrol car without much hesitation.

I wouldn't worry about the batteries at all, even in a TCO aspect.
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  #131  
Old 02.09.2015, 09:30
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Re: Tesla Model S

At present there are lots of IFS surrounding the long term total cost of an EV - for example we have no idea whether as the number increase governments will start impose high end of life costs on the car's disposal - and if so, who will carry the cost.

What the EV does bring is competition for the ICV (internal combustion vehicle) to which manufacturers have responded with improved technology - stop/start, regenerative braking, decoupled alternators, improved combustion etc etc. The cost km of fuelling a modern car is massively less than it was 10 years ago. The EU figures, although not accurate, can be used in a comparitive way, a 2005 M5 averages 14.8l/100km (while delivering 507ps), a 2015 M5 average 9.9l/100km (while pushing out 575ps).

The consumer will be the main beneficiary of the battle as both IC and EV technologies leap forward - and in some instances combine. As mentioned before, the hybrid (either as a pure hybrid (IC coupled) or range extender (IC de-coupled)) may end up being the main beneficiaries.

For example, look how the 3 hypercars of the moment all utilise their hybrid technologies to deliver 3 entirely different roles - from Porsche's approach of delivering maximum EV simulation to Ferrari's "IC fill in" approach.

Returning though to total life costs though, I just specced a 85D - to a total of just under 100k (incl the 90D battery) - that equates to 20k up-front, 28k final payment and 5 years at 1075chf per month - around 4.75%. For 12,000km a year the fuel saving (based on EWZ over night rates) is around 1600chf per year when compared to a 10l/100km car - 30chf per week. So after 5 years you are up around 8k against a similar IC - at 10 years that is 16k - which halves for a new battery (all assuming the original owner keeps the car). 8k saving over 10 years?? 800chf per year - I am not sure that it is enough to tip the balance yet.
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  #132  
Old 02.09.2015, 10:03
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Re: Tesla Model S

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I'm just back from SF, and guess what, I *want* one of these so bad... I saved myself the experience to test drive one, otherwise I would've already ordered one as well. :-)

StirB do you have your car yet?

I've looked at AutoScout prices and you can get 1-2 yr old 120k+ CHF cars with less then 40k km on the clock for around 70k CHF today, which seems the same massive depreciation as cars with combustion engines. I would want a Tesla for massively (if not to 0) reduced running costs besides the nice look and feel, but if it depreciates that quickly then it really kills the whole model of it. Yes, I know, a car is a liability and not an investment...

Other than what it feels like to use, as everyone knows it's stellar, what are the actual cost savings, does anyone have - or have seen - data from actual users? Road Tax is about 500CHF/yr, that's not a whole lot of savings, to be hones. And let's say you have free fuel for life (0.15CHF/km, about 2k CHF per year), coming to about 2500CHF opex savings per year. Any other (tax) benefits? What about insurance, do you get any discounts in basic insurance or in the casco? Do you need a regular yearly service (with Swiss hourly invoicing)?

My Renault runs at about 0.35-0.40 CHF/km, all costs included (garage, servicing, tyres, insurance, fuel). The Tesla could come to about half of that with basically unlimited free mileage.

I am comtemplating to get into a steep discounting Model S or just wait the 2yrs with the Renault and sign up for a Model 3 in 2-3 yrs.... ? What are the assumedly low pricing (I'm thinking about 50k CHF) of the Model 3 are going to do with the second-hand pricing of used Model S's?

Is anyone in the same 1stworldproblem zone as well?
Hi User137,

My Tesla is built and en route from the factory. I'll get it October 16th...cannot wait!

To try and address some points that have arisen since the last time I was on this thread...

Depreciation:
We know the car will be worth a minimum of 30% (realistically, probably like 40-45%) of new value after 5 years, as Tesla guarantees 30% for anyone who has a lease, but I suspect it might be worth even more than this.

Battery:
Degradation seems on average 1% a year and worst cases reported 1.5% a year. If 10 years down the line I am getting 270km / charge instead of 300km, I think I can live with it. Or I could have the drained cells replaced. Or (as is my plan) I will see what the battery tech is like then, and buy a new battery for around 10-15k and probably double my range.

Range / Charging:
My and pretty much everyone else's biggest worry I guess. Europe is pretty well covered now, even some of the third world places, like Italy
I will be doing a road trip around Germany in November and since it will be my first long trip, have been planning to the KM where I need to stop etc etc. I am doing it overkill, but I quite enjoy that! I suspect I actually just need to enter it into the Tesla Sat Nav and it will guide me via Superchargers.
To give an idea of scale, the trip is:
Zurich > Karlsruhe > Baiersbronn > Stuttgart > Zurich

At first I was a bit panicky, can I find a hotel with charging in the city I am going to, or maybe a car park with a charging bay...but actually, once i stepped back and trusted the supercharger network, I am more than covered range wise for the whole trip. I have a hotel in Baiersbronn with charging facilities, but I probably won't even need to use it.

Of course, I will report back after the trip, and let you know if it turns out to be all plain sailing as I am hoping!

P.S. A useful website for planning trips in a Tesla is (which I used):

https://evtripplanner.com/
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  #133  
Old 02.09.2015, 11:07
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Re: Tesla Model S

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Returning though to total life costs though, I just specced a 85D - to a total of just under 100k (incl the 90D battery) - that equates to 20k up-front, 28k final payment and 5 years at 1075chf per month - around 4.75%. For 12,000km a year the fuel saving (based on EWZ over night rates) is around 1600chf per year when compared to a 10l/100km car - 30chf per week. So after 5 years you are up around 8k against a similar IC - at 10 years that is 16k - which halves for a new battery (all assuming the original owner keeps the car). 8k saving over 10 years?? 800chf per year - I am not sure that it is enough to tip the balance yet.
You are skipping the cost of repairs and necessary maintenance on the ICV - belt/chain change, oil changes, etc. The Tesla will assumedly have much less costs as it is as simple as a brick in terms of engine/transmission. Add that and the 0 CHF road tax and you should arrive somewhere around 2000-2500 CHF per year savings at least. Of course the depreciation will still be much more than that on a 100k car.

And my extra assumption that Teslas don't really depreciate to 0% as normal ICV cars do as the drivetrain and engine are virtually maintenance-free.

As to "comsumption gets better and better" on ICV's it's just tricks on the standard european consumption cycles... here's a 2013 M5 with a real-life average consumption of "9.9l", khm, I mean a whopping 18.8 l/100km. Not much different from an E46/M3 from 2000, I guess:
http://www.spritmonitor.de/de/detailansicht/596288.html
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  #134  
Old 02.09.2015, 11:19
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Re: Tesla Model S

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You are skipping the cost of repairs and necessary maintenance on the ICV - belt/chain change, oil changes, etc. The Tesla will assumedly have much less costs as it is as simple as a brick in terms of engine/transmission. Add that and the 0 CHF road tax and you should arrive somewhere around 2000-2500 CHF per year savings at least. Of course the depreciation will still be much more than that on a 100k car.

And my extra assumption that Teslas don't really depreciate to 0% as normal ICV cars do as the drivetrain and engine are virtually maintenance-free.

As to "comsumption gets better and better" on ICV's it's just tricks on the standard european consumption cycles... here's a 2013 M5 with a real-life average consumption of "9.9l", khm, I mean a whopping 18.8 l/100km. Not much different from an E46/M3 from 2000, I guess:
http://www.spritmonitor.de/de/detailansicht/596288.html
I'd be interested to know the real world servicing costs of a Tesla. As for the M5 - really? You chose that one not the 14.23l one? I could roll out this old M5 to prove my point - 14.23 vs 27.90.

You are clearly a huge fan of the Teslas and genuinely believe them to be the answer - and that is great. The more people there are like you the longer people like me will enjoy some great ICVs
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  #135  
Old 02.09.2015, 11:29
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Re: Tesla Model S

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I'd be interested to know the real world servicing costs of a Tesla.
that's something I'd be interested as well.

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As for the M5 - really? You chose that one not the 14.23l one? I could roll out this old M5 to prove my point - 14.23 vs 27.90.
nice trick, but obviously false again. Just search on Spritmonitor for M5's before and after the year 2000. The average consumption value does not really change a bit (if not going higher). The M135i has a "laboratory" consumption of 6.1l/100km... hell, yeah.

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You are clearly a huge fan of the Teslas and genuinely believe them to be the answer - and that is great. The more people there are like you the longer people like me will enjoy some great ICVs
I am indeed a fan of Teslas as they beat every other car in every other aspect (read Consumer Reports?). However I came here to gather real-world experiences of the cars - which we seemingly have none at the moment until StirB receives his own, so we just argue and express our own opinions...
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  #136  
Old 02.09.2015, 11:39
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Re: Tesla Model S

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nice trick, but obviously false again. Just search on Spritmonitor for M5's before and after the year 2000. The average consumption value does not really change a bit (if not going higher). The M135i has a "laboratory" consumption of 6.1l/100km... hell, yeah.
Really??
Would you not perhaps consider 18.08 to be much greater than 14.99?
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  #137  
Old 02.09.2015, 11:45
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Re: Tesla Model S

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As to "comsumption gets better and better" on ICV's it's just tricks on the standard european consumption cycles... here's a 2013 M5 with a real-life average consumption of "9.9l", khm, I mean a whopping 18.8 l/100km. Not much different from an E46/M3 from 2000, I guess:
http://www.spritmonitor.de/de/detailansicht/596288.html
To be fair, everything gets better and better on the Tesla too, due to the over-the-air firmware / software updates.
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  #138  
Old 02.09.2015, 11:46
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Re: Tesla Model S

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Really??
Would you not perhaps consider 18.08 to be much greater than 14.99?
really. what you do is pointless hairsplitting without getting the point. I deliberately chose the mean value of the 3 cars listed.

Nevertheless
- 14.99 is about 50% more than the "official" consumption listed, so much for those figures
- if you do an all-cars comparison and just look at the average consumption figures there is no difference before and after the year 2000 with the M5's (13.50 vs 15.9l/100km, with the newer cars being more powerful and needing more gas). You can do the same with the Audi A8, but I think even a Passat would stand comparison. ICE's don't get more effective without batteries, despite all the development as an ICE itself is pathetic on effectiveness.
- this thread is not really about ICE consumptions, is it? so I'll just stop arguing over this
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  #139  
Old 02.09.2015, 12:26
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Re: Tesla Model S

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- if you do an all-cars comparison and just look at the average consumption figures there is no difference before and after the year 2000 with the M5's
You are missing the point - I comparing a 2005 M5 to a 2015 M5 - which is comparing the E60 M5 to the F10 M5 - which means applying filter for the model years of that car - giving the results at stated. Meanwhile the E39 M5 beats them both with 14.01 - which would suggest that we should all be buying 15 year old cars instead!

Official numbers and spiritmonitor numbers are always going to be open for debate - the former are dubiously obtained (as you alluded to already) and the latter can be hugely dependent on sample size and location - often Germany and it seems often with lead foot drivers. For example I have a car with official figures of 12l/100km - but over 8,500km I have returned 10.6l/100km.

It is "easy" to predict costs of owning an ICV - we know that "early" services will cost 500-1,000 each. And that be annually or in the case of variable service intervals every 2 years (modern BMWs and VW/Audis). Then for cars with a cambelt that will need doing every 90-120k - and will cost 2,000chf. So up to and including the first BIG service we can budget 5,000chf in maintenance (2*500, 2*1000, 1*2000) - getting us 120,000km of motoring.

Throughout a car's life there will be a need to replace brakes, suspension and steering components. In an ICV after 120k you can begin to expect to replace things main coolant components (radiator+water pump - the latter often done as part of the big service), fuel pump (probably more around 180-200k), DPF on a diesel around 120k-ish. The rest of the "engine" should be pretty reliable.

The same is true of a Tesla - it will wear through steering components, suspension, brakes etc (I'd be interested to know how the latter holds up considerng a Tesla comes in around 10-15% heavier than an ICV).

Tesla themselves ONLY use the fuel/tax saving in their calculations and quote a saving for 1400chf per year.

I remain interested in testing the Tesla - but StirBs link showed I need 5 stops to get me to my destination - adding approximately 2.5hrs to an already lengthy drive.

I am sure "I" could adapt to a Tesla S and dial in to how to "fuel" it and how to keep on top of the range - after all one of my cars is on a trickle charger most of the time anyway!! - but I need more information before making an absolute judgement on it.

Remember the core premise of the car is "personal freedom" - at present the EV can't compete on that.
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Old 02.09.2015, 13:11
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Re: Tesla Model S

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The same is true of a Tesla - it will wear through steering components, suspension, brakes etc (I'd be interested to know how the latter holds up considerng a Tesla comes in around 10-15% heavier than an ICV).
not quite. A Tesla has no "engine break" and "neutral" and always uses regenerative braking to charge the batteries, alas barely using the actual brake pads to slow the car down. Steering, suspension and the electrical system is the same, but there's much less mechanics inside and the electric motor has virtually close to no maintenance. On the other hand if you ever need to go to a service, I'm pretty sure they will charge you stellar prices as you just can't go anywhere else. so there goes one's savings again.

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I remain interested in testing the Tesla - but StirBs link showed I need 5 stops to get me to my destination - adding approximately 2.5hrs to an already lengthy drive.
if you really need to go somewhere far and don't want to plan ahead or wait (or fly), you could always rent a diesel passat for those 2 weeks a year with an 1200km range, couldn't you? I know it's not a real solution, just a workaround. (this is what Renault does on the Zoé with discounted leasing prices of ICV's).
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