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  #41  
Old 26.01.2012, 09:18
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

Thanks for your view Black. I am also investigating moving out of the city to a lower rent place.

When we split it, we pay 1500 a month each for rent at the moment, so it doesn't sound too horrible. But I am just so tempted to increase savings! I know we could increase savings if we downgrade and move out of town to rent, but in theory if we buy, there is also the hope that the money you put in the house will have some kind of small return that you would not get from rent payments. Also, I'm not sure if DH and I want to let go of the idea of having a fireplace. So cosy in the winter.

Still watching the market and learning more. I appreciate all the good feedback in this thread!
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Old 26.01.2012, 09:44
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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Well you really are a lot of use in a public forum !

Incidentally 90% increase is a total exageration, don't need to find any URL's to know that, common sense is enough

The problem with common sense, as has been posited before, is that it's not that common.

To whit, "Things are looking better for owner-occupied apartments and one-family houses, whose prices, according to the IAZI report, have increased over the past 12 months by 6.5 per cent and 5.8 per cent respectively. Here too regional differences are considerable, with prices for existing one-family apartments going up by 20 per cent in the city of Zurich and new apartments by 90 per cent during the same period."

Here's the URL: http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_ne...l?cid=31620304

If you believe those figures to be incorrect please ask the source to adjust them. You will also find links there to further supporting documentation - by people who are paid to do this research properly as opposed to naively trusting that they'll find accurate information on an internet forum provided by people who openly state they don't need to do research.
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  #43  
Old 26.01.2012, 10:48
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

Just a few numbers for an area on the border of northern Zurich that really show how ridiculous prices are getting:
  • 155 m2, 4.5 rooms, own washroom, large own cellar that can be accessed directly from the apartment, winter garden, big terrace, kitchen with separate oven/steamer, independent ventilation system (as in, you can turn it up or down) as well as underfloor heating - CHF 650'000 in 2007
  • 107 m2, 4.5 rooms, own washer/dryer in shower room, underfloor heating, central ventilation, smallish cellar, smallish balcony - CHF 695'000 (not including parking spaces and any upgrades to finish) in 2010, literally 50 metres away from first place
  • 114 m2, same specs as second apartment, same floor - CHF 860'000 (again, not counting parking spaces and any upgrades) in 2011, 200 metres away from second place
Third place is already sold.
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Old 26.01.2012, 10:59
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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The problem with common sense, as has been posited before, is that it's not that common.

To whit, "Things are looking better for owner-occupied apartments and one-family houses, whose prices, according to the IAZI report, have increased over the past 12 months by 6.5 per cent and 5.8 per cent respectively. Here too regional differences are considerable, with prices for existing one-family apartments going up by 20 per cent in the city of Zurich and new apartments by 90 per cent during the same period."

Here's the URL: http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_ne...l?cid=31620304

If you believe those figures to be incorrect please ask the source to adjust them. You will also find links there to further supporting documentation - by people who are paid to do this research properly as opposed to naively trusting that they'll find accurate information on an internet forum provided by people who openly state they don't need to do research.
I have challenged swissinfo on the 90% increase.

The information which you attributed to "Credit Suisse research" actually comes from Donato Scognamiglio, head of property consultants IAZI. I can see nowhere else where he is quoted as saying a 90% increase, which is obviously incorrect...
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Old 26.01.2012, 11:03
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

From what I've observed around here with a few rough calculations, I reckon the figure of 90% should actually be 9%.
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Old 26.01.2012, 11:06
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

Around here, you can still get really good value for money. In Fleurier for instance there is a fabulous old Masters Mansion currently on for 1mio750is, price negotiable. A lot of money, but at least you know why. Your average villa in the area is around 500-700.
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Old 26.01.2012, 11:33
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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I have challenged swissinfo on the 90% increase.
Good for you. I'm almost moved to say, molodets, but Russian-language is probably not going to be welcome here.

Do get back to us with their response won't you?
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  #48  
Old 26.01.2012, 12:06
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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Around here, you can still get really good value for money. In Fleurier for instance there is a fabulous old Masters Mansion currently on for 1mio750is, price negotiable. A lot of money, but at least you know why. Your average villa in the area is around 500-700.
Neuchatel is probably more protected from price falling given that there hasn't been a price spike, however, I wonder what the demand will be like for real estate over there if economy continues to worsen like now..
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  #49  
Old 26.01.2012, 12:44
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

I was looking at new builds in Hardbrucke just the other day. They look very nice, but it seems that there is a lot of building going on right now in many different places including: hardbrucke, sihlpost, kreuzplatz...

All this demand coming online will surely exert a significant downward pressure on rental prices in zurich and ultimately purchase prices.
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Old 28.01.2012, 09:09
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

Hi Diamondscan,

We just bought a house in ZH (city) and thought we would share our experience...

I think here are two property "markets" -- if you can even call them that -- there's the open market, and a completely closed, behind-the-scenes market, where properties change hands without advertising, without an agent, and usually between friends, colleagues, or relatives.

That second market is much more down-to-earth, and prices tend to be a lot closer to what properties are really worth rather than the ridiculous prices you see on the open market.

I think much more property changes hand on the latter than on the former. We were looking on the open market for a long time before we managed to find a place. The house we bought was, surprisingly, advertised on the open market, but the sale price was fixed at actual assessed value -- not the 20% or more above assessed value which is most common. It was immediately reserved (with a couple of days!), but the advert stayed on the internet so we sent the seller a mail asking him to contact us in case it comes back on the market. We did that with at least 20 other places which we "missed" and never heard a thing back. However in this case, the prospective buyer had trouble getting financing and backed out, so the seller contacted us privately and we arranged the purchase without the house ever being advertised again.

The house we bought is an 8-room free-standing house in a very nice part of Oerlikon, with a very large garden and double garage, and was completely gutted and rebuilt 4 years ago. The price we paid was far far less than some 3-bedroom townhouses we see advertised in the same area. A place like this would almost certainly be listed on the open market for 1/4 milllion CHF more than we bought it for.

We got very lucky, but I do believe it's possible, even in the current climate, to find a property on this closed market for close to what it is "really worth". Some sellers prefer to sell their property quickly and privately at its real assessed value rather than dealing with the hassle and cost of putting it on the open market -- even if that means a lower selling price. (Some sellers we spoke to were practically having to fight off estate agents, after putting a very discrete advert on a public pinboard which clearly stated "no agents please".)

So our advice is: "network" as much as possible. Ask your friends to ask their friends if they happen to know anyone who's selling. If you hear of someone who has sold a place, drop them a friendly note to say you're interested, in case if the sale doesn't work out. Put a note up at your work, social club, etc. saying you're looking for a home and would appreciate any tips. If you see a place which already sold which looks interesting, try to send a note to the seller with your details. Also, look in places like pinwand.ch and other online "Gratisinserate" websites -- some sellers are extremely discrete because they want to avoid the housing market circus. A single sentence on a single, small, lightly used pinboard website is all it takes to find a buyer right now. You can also put a "seeking house" advert on those sites -- that's a long shot but it probably does yield results occasionally.

Just keep doing things like that, and most importantly, be patient (if that's an option!) -- it can take several years, unfortunately.

Good luck!

Last edited by dehansen; 28.01.2012 at 09:22.
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  #51  
Old 28.01.2012, 09:24
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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Just a few numbers for an area on the border of northern Zurich that really show how ridiculous prices are getting:
  • 155 m2, 4.5 rooms, own washroom, large own cellar that can be accessed directly from the apartment, winter garden, big terrace, kitchen with separate oven/steamer, independent ventilation system (as in, you can turn it up or down) as well as underfloor heating - CHF 650'000 in 2007
  • 107 m2, 4.5 rooms, own washer/dryer in shower room, underfloor heating, central ventilation, smallish cellar, smallish balcony - CHF 695'000 (not including parking spaces and any upgrades to finish) in 2010, literally 50 metres away from first place
  • 114 m2, same specs as second apartment, same floor - CHF 860'000 (again, not counting parking spaces and any upgrades) in 2011, 200 metres away from second place
Third place is already sold.
Without knowing what upgrades have been done the comparison means very little, it's quite possible to spend 1-200k on a Kitchen & 2 bath rooms and new floors.

The 3rd place may be sold, however you don't know the sale price, just the asking price. In the UK many developemnets the first flats were sold at a very high price with 25% cash back, this was to establish a price. With property you never know what has gone on behind the scenes, or why.

BTW new new builds in Verbier are sekking at 23,000 a m2 way higher than your examples, however that is a real bubble.
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  #52  
Old 28.01.2012, 10:57
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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Thanks for your view Black. I am also investigating moving out of the city to a lower rent place.

When we split it, we pay 1500 a month each for rent at the moment, so it doesn't sound too horrible. But I am just so tempted to increase savings! I know we could increase savings if we downgrade and move out of town to rent, but in theory if we buy, there is also the hope that the money you put in the house will have some kind of small return that you would not get from rent payments. Also, I'm not sure if DH and I want to let go of the idea of having a fireplace. So cosy in the winter.

Still watching the market and learning more. I appreciate all the good feedback in this thread!
Well if you shop around then you can probably get a 10 year mortgage @ 2%. So the 1,500 rent that one of you pays would be enough to cover mortgage payments on a 1Million CHF property for 10 years; assuming you have the 20% deposit.
The other 1,500 would cover your nebenkosten plus reaching your goal of increasing your savings.
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  #53  
Old 28.01.2012, 16:10
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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Well if you shop around then you can probably get a 10 year mortgage @ 2%. So the 1,500 rent that one of you pays would be enough to cover mortgage payments on a 1Million CHF property for 10 years; assuming you have the 20% deposit.
The other 1,500 would cover your nebenkosten plus reaching your goal of increasing your savings.
The question is the risk you're taking over 10 years. You may lose your job or get moved elsewhere, you may increase your family size and need a bigger apartment etc.

Don't expect that over the next 5-10 years real estate prices will stay at the present levels. ALL available forecasting reports (Credit Suisse, UBS, Wuest&Partner etc) foresee falling prices once mortgage rates come back from 1.5% for 5y to more "normal" 3%-4% as we had them up to 2008. Do expect this to happen over the next years. Buyers hitting the market then won't be paying the same you did when the rates were less than half.

Without even looking at the reimbursement penalties if you have to sell before the 10 years are over, a price fall of just 10% (from 1M to 0.9M) over the present skyrocketing prices will cut your 20% deposit to half (from 200K to 100K) as you are leveraging by a factor 5. Also, in some cantons (at least in suisse romande eg Geneva, Vaud) you have to pay hefty notary fees of 5% the purchasing price.

So in terms of 'investment' it's a risky strategy.. in particular during 2012, who knows where the world economy will be by the end of the year..
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Old 28.01.2012, 17:38
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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Without knowing what upgrades have been done the comparison means very little, it's quite possible to spend 1-200k on a Kitchen & 2 bath rooms and new floors.

The 3rd place may be sold, however you don't know the sale price, just the asking price. In the UK many developemnets the first flats were sold at a very high price with 25% cash back, this was to establish a price. With property you never know what has gone on behind the scenes, or why.

BTW new new builds in Verbier are sekking at 23,000 a m2 way higher than your examples, however that is a real bubble.
For the first, it is with any upgrades - I know the owner. For the second - I know the owner too, price is without upgrades, for the final price you need to add about 10k of necessary upgrades, and a few others for the lulz. For the third, it's before any upgrades, list price, sold at exactly that price - upgrades will be necessary, as the price doesn't even include bathroom cabinets!
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Old 28.01.2012, 19:32
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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For the first, it is with any upgrades - I know the owner. For the second - I know the owner too, price is without upgrades, for the final price you need to add about 10k of necessary upgrades, and a few others for the lulz. For the third, it's before any upgrades, list price, sold at exactly that price - upgrades will be necessary, as the price doesn't even include bathroom cabinets!
It's not unheard of for cash to be handed over which is not recorded (reverse of UK situation) . This is due to CGT. Where a recorded price seems low this could well of happened. Reported prices are just that!
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Old 28.01.2012, 19:46
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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It's not unheard of for cash to be handed over which is not recorded (reverse of UK situation) . This is due to CGT. Where a recorded price seems low this could well of happened. Reported prices are just that!
These are new builds, all apartments, prices are up on a website for everyone to see, first come, first serve. Like I said, I know for definite that those are the prices paid. EXISTING properties that you can actually go and look at before agreeing to buy are even more expensive, at least that was what I saw in my six month search.
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Old 28.01.2012, 20:38
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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These are new builds, all apartments, prices are up on a website for everyone to see, first come, first serve. Like I said, I know for definite that those are the prices paid. EXISTING properties that you can actually go and look at before agreeing to buy are even more expensive, at least that was what I saw in my six month search.
Often people end up improving the spec of the apartment, it's not unusual to spend an extra 1k per m2 on improvements. Many people buying there own apartment will not want the standard white barthroom & kitchen.
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Old 28.01.2012, 21:21
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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Often people end up improving the spec of the apartment, it's not unusual to spend an extra 1k per m2 on improvements. Many people buying there own apartment will not want the standard white barthroom & kitchen.
That is not the point though, those things are entirely optional, the point is, how prices for (in two cases) "bare bones" properties within a 400 metre radius of each other have changed in five years. I don't know what the price of the first apartment without all the bells and whistles was but even if he didn't spend ANYTHING extra, it's still a lot cheaper and 50% bigger than apartment number two. The colour of the bathroom is not defined, just the budget that you have for it. Same for the floors and everything else.
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Old 29.01.2012, 15:52
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

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The question is the risk you're taking over 10 years. You may lose your job or get moved elsewhere, you may increase your family size and need a bigger apartment etc.

Don't expect that over the next 5-10 years real estate prices will stay at the present levels. ALL available forecasting reports (Credit Suisse, UBS, Wuest&Partner etc) foresee falling prices once mortgage rates come back from 1.5% for 5y to more "normal" 3%-4% as we had them up to 2008. Do expect this to happen over the next years. Buyers hitting the market then won't be paying the same you did when the rates were less than half.

Without even looking at the reimbursement penalties if you have to sell before the 10 years are over, a price fall of just 10% (from 1M to 0.9M) over the present skyrocketing prices will cut your 20% deposit to half (from 200K to 100K) as you are leveraging by a factor 5. Also, in some cantons (at least in suisse romande eg Geneva, Vaud) you have to pay hefty notary fees of 5% the purchasing price.

So in terms of 'investment' it's a risky strategy.. in particular during 2012, who knows where the world economy will be by the end of the year..
cf also a similar case described here: http://blog.crottaz-finance.ch/?p=9101
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Old 15.04.2012, 09:38
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Re: Thinking about buying. Good/bad idea with a housing bubble?

An interesting programme on Suisse Romande TV yesterday about the housing bubble. A few things discussed I had not considered before.
One subject was having to sell early for whatever reason. The one given was due to divorce, in a Society where around 50% of marriages end up in divorce. If a couple have to sell up quickly, they may well have to do so at a loss. But then, if they have used their second pillar to consolidate the mortgage, that will have to go back into the pension pot after the sale. Not sure what the position would be if you move abroad. Plus of course the tax penalties for selling before 5-10 years (not sure if the number of years is fixed throughout CH or variable C/K), + any fees for early cancellation of a mortgage.

They were also talking about recent house buyers in the areas of Fribourg/Yverdon areas, where the value of the house has since shot up- the example given from 600 to 900. Those people who have borrowed up to the hilt, using every little bit they could get from anywhere possible- are now finding that the increased price is actually going against them - as they now have to pay much more tax on the estimated rental value of their house + increased 'estimation cadastrale'.

The expert stated that to buy a 1.5 mio house, your total income has to be a minimum of 100.000 net. The main reason stated is that interest rates may rise very suddenly, and if they did - those borrowed up to the hilt would not be able to sustain that.

Has anyone actually experienced their taxes increasing due to value of their house going up significantly?

Last edited by Odile; 15.04.2012 at 13:57.
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