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  #21  
Old 24.10.2011, 17:45
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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And that made them more moderate?

What about women's right? Slavation? Education?

Should I really keep going?

I was trying to limit my comment to the framework of international politics; I wasn't agreeing with their social policies. IMHO, the Saudis are nowhere close to 'moderate' on any of those issues...
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  #22  
Old 25.10.2011, 11:35
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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I'm fairly sure all the after-dictator Arabian countries will go Iran's way... Iraq as well, asap after US troops leave...
Well you are just a bundle of optimisim, arn't you? Firstly, we should not call them Arabian countries as that is just wrong.

Secondly, do you have any evidence? Can you point at a majority of cases where this has happened? I thought that a number of muslim states are doing quite well at the moment and some have pretty stable economies when compared to the mess that most of the west is in at the moment. Just a thought though.
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  #23  
Old 25.10.2011, 11:59
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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Let's assume the news are reals.
I would really really prefer that we did not assume that the news is real.

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I won't be surprised if it does happen. People have been for 40 years under a dictature. They are angry, furious and want revenge. They are not looking to be better but to be different. They will bring back everything Gaddafi took away from them, good, bad.
Some do and some don't. Some had a pretty good life under the previous regime. That is the way the tribal system works.

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When a men needs to oppress an equal, you know it is because he can't stand up by himself.
Always the men's faults. Sometimes it is good to remember that man was raised by a mother. She had some influence over what he became as well.

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I do not see Libya being democratic for many years yet, if ever, under what we in Western Europe define as "democratic".
While I agree with you on the future of Libya, I would hardly suggest that everybody in the world rush into the style of government that most of the West use as a great example of how to run things. Look at the trouble most of Europe and the US is in.

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Saudi is only interested in keeping its population perpetually backwards.
As somebody that has worked in Saudi, I can tell you that this is patently untrue. I don't really like the system that much there but it is becoming much more progressive and change is occuring. Saudi is a very private society that don't feel it nessessary to share with the rest of the world all the time how they are running things or what they are doing.

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Not joking, no. The only thing I've seen Iran developing in recent years is military technology, including nuclear weapons technology. Iran refers to the U.S. as "The Great Satan" and pursues a foreign policy intended to weaken the U.S. Also, Iran wants to be the political, economic, and theocratic center of Islam.
Really, the only thing they have developed? Seriously?

And thier foreign policy is unique? Because I don't see that the U.S.A. foreign policy towards Iran is any different, or do you?

Wow, I must be wrong on the first two points. You seem to have an inside line on the strategy of the council in Iran. What is the policy on oil movements and East/West relations surrounding the Caspian and Aserbaijan?

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The Saudis, on the other hand, IMO, don't especially like the U.S., but they want our money and our military hardware, and they like to keep the U.S. presence in the gulf as a check to de facto Iranian hegemony over the region.
Indeed, and that is why Saudi is one of the few countries in the world that actually manufacture components for a U.K. based weapons company that is the largest in the world that supply arms to the U.S.A......because the Saudi's need U.S. Arms.......no....check that does not really make sense does it. Pity, does not seem like the U.S.A. is the world super power anymore....oh well.

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The Saudis also have the most realpolitik outlook in the region, I think. Their intelligence agency, Ri'āsat Al-Istikhbārāt Al-'Āmah, collaborates very frequently with the Israeli Mossad, for example.
I would not be travelling to either of those countries after making statements like that...lol.

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To maybe reframe the question, is to ask, will the Libyans embrace the West, tolerate the West, or reject the West?

Nations don't have friends or enemies... nations only have interests
-De Gaulle(?)
Following the logic of your statement and quote.... why would Libya embrace, tollerate or reject and interest? Surely it is simply a question of invest or not? However as much as people seem to love these sweeping generalisations about counties, they just don't exist in that sense. People make up a country and people feel like people, not like outsiders think the country feels. Groups of people with power most accurately reflect how outsiders like to lable that a contry thinks, but that is not the case for all the citizens who may feel very differently. Some Libyians would love to leave, some would love Western style democracy, some would like Swiss style democracy, some would like Sharia and I am sure some would like Dictatorship again.

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I was trying to limit my comment to the framework of international politics; I wasn't agreeing with their social policies. IMHO, the Saudis are nowhere close to 'moderate' on any of those issues...
If I were you, I would get some Saudi friends and talk to them about these things before making those sorts of assumptions.
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  #24  
Old 25.10.2011, 17:55
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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While I agree with you on the future of Libya, I would hardly suggest that everybody in the world rush into the style of government that most of the West use as a great example of how to run things. Look at the trouble most of Europe and the US is in.
They need to establish a government soon. What style would you suggest?


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As somebody that has worked in Saudi, I can tell you that this is patently untrue. I don't really like the system that much there but it is becoming much more progressive and change is occuring. Saudi is a very private society that don't feel it nessessary to share with the rest of the world all the time how they are running things or what they are doing.
Which is good, but to many Westerners it is still very different from what we see as 'egalitarian,' especially with regards to equality of the sexes. To my POV, this would make them less moderate than many Western countries, but more moderate than a theocratic regime like Iran.

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Really, the only thing they have developed? Seriously?
Yup, as I said- I've not seen anything else. I may be wrong- can you name anything developed in Iran since 1979?

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And their foreign policy is unique? Because I don't see that the U.S.A. foreign policy towards Iran is any different, or do you?
I see a very large difference- Iran wants to destroy America and Americans, whereas America would like to see a regime change. While not every Iranian may feel this way, there seems to be general animosity in Iran towards America and Americans. In America, there seems to be general animosity towards the Iranian regime, but sympathy for the Iranian people under that regime.

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Wow, I must be wrong on the first two points. You seem to have an inside line on the strategy of the council in Iran. What is the policy on oil movements and East/West relations surrounding the Caspian and Aserbaijan?
I am not informed in these matters, and my reference to Iran was intended to be limited in scope, as an example for reference to a direction in which Libya may turn.

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Indeed, and that is why Saudi is one of the few countries in the world that actually manufacture components for a U.K. based weapons company that is the largest in the world that supply arms to the U.S.A......because the Saudi's need U.S. Arms.......no....check that does not really make sense does it. Pity, does not seem like the U.S.A. is the world super power anymore....oh well.
Parts, not whole weapons, nor the training to use them. Outsourcing of production is a very normal thing in the U.S. and can help cement economic and political relationships. If the U.S. isn't the world's superpower, who is?

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I would not be travelling to either of those countries after making statements like that...lol.
IMHO, the Saudis seem to be realists when it comes to their security, and they'll trade intel with anyone if it benefits them. Of course, they would never publicly admit to this.

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Following the logic of your statement and quote.... why would Libya embrace, tollerate or reject an interest? Surely it is simply a question of invest or not? However as much as people seem to love these sweeping generalisations about counties, they just don't exist in that sense. People make up a country and people feel like people, not like outsiders think the country feels. Groups of people with power most accurately reflect how outsiders like to lable that a contry thinks, but that is not the case for all the citizens who may feel very differently. Some Libyians would love to leave, some would love Western style democracy, some would like Swiss style democracy, some would like Sharia and I am sure some would like Dictatorship again.
While I agree with the premise of individuals making individual decisions, we cannot ask every Libyan how he/she might feel. Is a good relationship with the West in Libya's interests, or might it turn Eastward? What are Libya's interests?

Also, this made me think- there are two entities to consider- the government 'official position' and the general consensus 'man-on-the-street' opinion of the Libyan people. Which might end up dictating the political course in Libya?

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If I were you, I would get some Saudi friends and talk to them about these things before making those sorts of assumptions.
I don't know any Saudis personally, and so I try to be careful to qualify an opinion as an opinion, which may be misinformed.

Very good points!
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  #25  
Old 25.10.2011, 17:59
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

It was not long ago that Ghaddaffi voluntarily relinquished his nuclear weapons program to gain some brownie point off Dubya Bush.

Was that a tactical mistake?

I wonder how many dictators are queuing to be able to abandon their WMD programs now?

Is the world really a safer place?
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  #26  
Old 25.10.2011, 18:03
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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I see a very large difference- Iran wants to destroy America and Americans, whereas America would like to see a regime change.
Does anybody outside of America actually believe that?

The Iranians rant about destroying Israel.
But in reality they'd be more than happy if they could make that a "regime change". But even that is diatribe.

But destroy America?
Has that even been mentioned outside of Fox News?
Sounds like a huge hyperbole to me.

Or if this is just about "hating freedom", ît's much easier to criticise the regime from inside Iran than it is from inside Saudi.
Or if this is about terrorists or a military threat, maybe the only reason that Saudis aren't threatening to bomb half the world is that the world eats from their hand already.
But does might make right?

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  #27  
Old 25.10.2011, 18:56
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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Might be something that contravenes teachings of traditional Islam? I don't know that much about that part. I'm trying to find out more; I am interested to see if Libya goes the way of Iran, or maybe Saudi Arabia (more moderate). The 'man on the street,' interviews I've read seem to demonstrate some significant pro-Western sentiment in Libya. I think the trick is to not be too heavy-handed, let the Libyans sort themselves out politically. Economically, if the Libyans are trying to restructure debt/lending to conform with Islamic ideas on usury, that could be very problematic for many Western interests, no?
Saudi Arabia is the most conservative Islamic country in the world. I
worked there last year. The people were quite friendly and helpful
for me personally.

In SA:
--Women are not allowed to drive
--Women are not allowed to go outside without full black covering top to
bottom.
--Women are not allowed to be in public alone without a male relative or husband.

--No alcohol is allowed.
--The whole country shuts down during prayer times 5 times a day.
--Other religions are not allowed even if practiced privately in the
home.
--Muslims can be arrested for not going to pray.
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Old 25.10.2011, 18:58
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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They need to establish a government soon. What style would you suggest?
Transitionary, transparent, humanitarian, fair and neutral. I have seen most "styles" as you put it done in those ways. A direct democracy like Switzerland has many pre-requisites that I personally do not believe would suit Libya at the moment, but I could be wrong.

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Yup, as I said- I've not seen anything else. I may be wrong- can you name anything developed in Iran since 1979?
I am sure they have built infrastructure and I know they have mobile telephones there now.

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I see a very large difference- Iran wants to destroy America and Americans, whereas America would like to see a regime change. While not every Iranian may feel this way, there seems to be general animosity in Iran towards America and Americans. In America, there seems to be general animosity towards the Iranian regime, but sympathy for the Iranian people under that regime.
What is a country other than its regime? I am not sure that I agree with you that the intent is any different here no matter what semantic spin you care to place on it.

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Parts, not whole weapons, nor the training to use them. Outsourcing of production is a very normal thing in the U.S. and can help cement economic and political relationships. If the U.S. isn't the world's superpower, who is?
There has to be one? BAE systems is the largest weapons manufacturer in the world. The golden share is held by the U.K. Government. This is not outsourcing, it is called ownership. Not that the U.K. holding this does not make me shudder in fear any less than the U.S.A. holding it. Not even the gods can help us unless we get away from that problem...lol.

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IMHO, the Saudis seem to be realists when it comes to their security, and they'll trade intel with anyone if it benefits them. Of course, they would never publicly admit to this.
As per my advise of never stating it publically if you want to travel to either of these countries.

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While I agree with the premise of individuals making individual decisions, we cannot ask every Libyan how he/she might feel. Is a good relationship with the West in Libya's interests, or might it turn Eastward? What are Libya's interests?
I would imagine that the interim government (they all are after all ) will want to earn wealth and build infrastructure. Hopefully they will also be interested in the qualities that I talked about in the first part of this post. I don't know, I can only hope.

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Also, this made me think- there are two entities to consider- the government 'official position' and the general consensus 'man-on-the-street' opinion of the Libyan people. Which might end up dictating the political course in Libya?
Previously, one man (with mitigation through powerful individuals), now, one tribe, hopefully with democratic principles, but I have some small doubts.

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Very good points!
Ditto, nice debating with you.
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  #29  
Old 25.10.2011, 19:51
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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Is the world really a safer place?
I would opine "No." Safety seems to stem from stability, because stability breeds (more or less) predictability.

There are still a lot of post-colonial issues that need to be resolved in the world, and the changes we've seen in Libya, Egypt and elsewhere might be manifestations of those people trying to establish what their national identity truly is. For many of these countries, their borders were drawn on a map by foreign colonial powers, their form of governance set up and enforced by the same, and it just doesn't "fit" the population. (What does fit? I don't know? ) As was pointed out by others, many people identify more with their tribe/locality than with their nationality.
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Old 25.10.2011, 20:12
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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I would opine "No." Safety seems to stem from stability, because stability breeds (more or less) predictability.

There are still a lot of post-colonial issues that need to be resolved in the world, and the changes we've seen in Libya, Egypt and elsewhere might be manifestations of those people trying to establish what their national identity truly is. For many of these countries, their borders were drawn on a map by foreign colonial powers, their form of governance set up and enforced by the same, and it just doesn't "fit" the population. (What does fit? I don't know? ) As was pointed out by others, many people identify more with their tribe/locality than with their nationality.
True, I agree that colinialism has left behind a mess, and this is probably more visibly so in Africa than on any other continent.

I do consider it legitimate that people arise and overthrow bad governments, or redefine borders along ethnic or tribal lines. But I don't like it when the West picks winners and intervenes in such conflicts in any way other than strict peacekeeping efforts. If the people of Libya or Egypt or any other country decide they want an Islamic theocracy with anti-Western leanings, or don't want to sell us any oil, that is their choice, and as uncomfortable as such a regime may be, it is still preferable to some puppet dictator who takes his orders from Europe or America.
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Old 25.10.2011, 20:26
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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True, I agree that colinialism has left behind a mess, and this is probably more visibly so in Africa than on any other continent.
And, to be intellectually honest, it wasn't just Western colonialism. The Ottoman Turks threw their spices in this soup pot, also (I'm cooking dinner- can you tell? )
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  #32  
Old 25.10.2011, 20:49
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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Does anybody outside of America actually believe that?

The Iranians rant about destroying Israel.
But in reality they'd be more than happy if they could make that a "regime change". But even that is diatribe.

But destroy America?
Has that even been mentioned outside of Fox News?
Sounds like a huge hyperbole to me.

Or if this is just about "hating freedom", ît's much easier to criticise the regime from inside Iran than it is from inside Saudi.
Or if this is about terrorists or a military threat, maybe the only reason that Saudis aren't threatening to bomb half the world is that the world eats from their hand already.
But does might make right?
About " But destroy America?
Has that even been mentioned outside of Fox News?
Sounds like a huge hyperbole to me."

I guess the sight of Iranian MPs & other groups chanting "death to America" can be a bit disturbing. Not a practical task to achieve but equally a strange way to win friends & influence people.
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Old 25.10.2011, 20:50
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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True, I agree that colinialism has left behind a mess, and this is probably more visibly so in Africa than on any other continent.

I do consider it legitimate that people arise and overthrow bad governments, or redefine borders along ethnic or tribal lines. But I don't like it when the West picks winners and intervenes in such conflicts in any way other than strict peacekeeping efforts. If the people of Libya or Egypt or any other country decide they want an Islamic theocracy with anti-Western leanings, or don't want to sell us any oil, that is their choice, and as uncomfortable as such a regime may be, it is still preferable to some puppet dictator who takes his orders from Europe or America.
You would define Gadaffi as a puppet dictator who takes his orders from Europe or America? Really?
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  #34  
Old 25.10.2011, 20:57
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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You would define Gadaffi as a puppet dictator who takes his orders from Europe or America? Really?
That is not what the poster said at all!
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  #35  
Old 25.10.2011, 21:02
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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And, to be intellectually honest, it wasn't just Western colonialism. The Ottoman Turks threw their spices in this soup pot, also (I'm cooking dinner- can you tell? )
Isn't this what every powerful nation/tribe has done forever? The winners impose, the losers are imposed upon.
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Old 25.10.2011, 21:07
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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That is not what the poster said at all!
Did you read the sentence " If the people of Libya or Egypt or any other country decide they want an Islamic theocracy with anti-Western leanings, or don't want to sell us any oil, that is their choice, and as uncomfortable as such a regime may be, it is still preferable to some puppet dictator who takes his orders from Europe or America."

If you start a sentence with "If the people of Libya ..." & finish the same sentence with " some puppet dictator who takes his orders from Europe or America." Then clearly you are referring to Gadaffi as the puppet; basic rules of English grammar.
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  #37  
Old 26.10.2011, 00:39
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

Maybe the syntax was incorrect, but I don't think the poster was referring to Qadaffi as a puppet.
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Old 26.10.2011, 00:56
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

I can think of only one thing .The oil which comes to Europa will be Kosher in the future
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Old 26.10.2011, 01:04
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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I can think of only one thing .The oil which comes to Europa will be Kosher in the future
Eh? I don't get it...
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Old 26.10.2011, 08:59
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Re: Libya Post Qaddafi- Sharia State?

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Not joking, no. The only thing I've seen Iran developing in recent years is military technology, including nuclear weapons technology. Iran refers to the U.S. as "The Great Satan" and pursues a foreign policy intended to weaken the U.S. Also, Iran wants to be the political, economic, and theocratic center of Islam.

The Saudis, on the other hand, IMO, don't especially like the U.S., but they want our money and our military hardware, and they like to keep the U.S. presence in the gulf as a check to de facto Iranian hegemony over the region.
The Saudis also have the most realpolitik outlook in the region, I think. Their intelligence agency, Ri'āsat Al-Istikhbārāt Al-'Āmah, collaborates very frequently with the Israeli Mossad, for example.

To maybe reframe the question, is to ask, will the Libyans embrace the West, tolerate the West, or reject the West?

Nations don't have friends or enemies... nations only have interests
-De Gaulle(?)
LOL.

Sorry, but your view is VERY selective.

Iran: Yes, invests heavily in military technology, especially the last decade. Have a look at the map where Iran is - it is surrounded by countries currently occupied by the US. Add to this that a decade ago the US military managed with it's unparalleled diplomacy skills to release a map how they'd like the middle east to look like - and this map didn't look too well for Iranians. Their leader is a nutcase, but you know what? If I was leading Iran, I'd beef up my defense as well. Achmasomething is a very inward focussed leader trying to keep the country together - therefore many of the things he say make sense from an Iranian perspective but seem utterly stupid for us. When he calls the US "satan" he does so to keep the old Khomeini fans at bay, some other groups are strongly anti-semitic, so you better throw in some hate against Israel... so yes, a ridiculous leader, but I would not underestimate him. He does not say the stupid things because he is stupid, but because he wants to please some stupid masses lead by some weird religious leaders.

Saudi: You do watch the news? They did send their troops to Bahrain doing not so nice things to protesters... and what did they buy since then? 200 new Leopard 2a7. What's new on the new model? The customer had a requirement to add a shield at the front, so the tank can easily crush barricades made by "terrorists"...

The Saudis are not Afraid of Iran, they partner with the US as it is damn good business. The Saudi leadership is a special type of very radical Muslims - Wahabis - that reject the Shia Islam of Iran and want to spread their view on religion. Worldwide. You will therefore find thousands of religious centers and mosques in the world and including all European countries sponsored by Saudis. I have no problem with religious centers, but the Wahabi money sponsored ones simply by default preach intolerance, hate and were the breeding ground for pretty much every single Islamistic terrorist in the West.

Unfortunately is their oil so important that our governments don't really dare to address this.
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