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  #281  
Old 18.03.2014, 15:45
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

The young co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid was planning to marry fellow Air Asia pilot Nadira Ramli



I would say the young dude had everything to live for and have thus excluded him from my investigations
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  #282  
Old 18.03.2014, 15:47
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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The most plausible explanation (to me at least) without all that creepy conspiracy theory stuff.


Chris Goodfellow

MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway.

A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.

Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.

Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.

The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.

Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.
For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.


If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).

What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless.

This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.

Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.


Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.

Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.
And if it is true he radioed "goodnight" after the stuff was switched off?
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  #283  
Old 18.03.2014, 15:54
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

I dunno if this has been posted already, but here's a list of 10 possible theories for the plane's disappearance.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26609687
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  #284  
Old 18.03.2014, 16:00
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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And if it is true he radioed "goodnight" after the stuff was switched off?
If they were dealing with the beginnings of a small electrical fire (behind the panels) and trippy switches then it might very well have been a very distracted 'All right, goodnight' whilst his focus was on fixing the problem at hand. As has been said numerous times, 'communicate' is the last thing a pilot should do in an emergency (after aviate and navigate).
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  #285  
Old 18.03.2014, 16:04
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

Per USAToday, apparently Courtney Love has 'found' the plane....

Link
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  #286  
Old 18.03.2014, 16:11
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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If they were dealing with the beginnings of a small electrical fire (behind the panels) and trippy switches then it might very well have been a very distracted 'All right, goodnight' whilst his focus was on fixing the problem at hand. As has been said numerous times, 'communicate' is the last thing a pilot should do in an emergency (after aviate and navigate).
Don't you think there's a slightly greater chance he might have said "Sh1t, we're on fire" in the circumstances? Given that he did choose to reply?
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  #287  
Old 18.03.2014, 16:12
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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Per USAToday, apparently Courtney Love has 'found' the plane....

Link
Sadly,
This places Courtney Love one notch higher than the Malaysian government.
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  #288  
Old 18.03.2014, 16:14
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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Sadly,
This places Courtney Love one notch higher than the Malaysian government.
When you say 'higher'...?

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  #289  
Old 18.03.2014, 16:20
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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The most plausible explanation (to me at least) without all that creepy conspiracy theory stuff.


Chris Goodfellow

MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway.

A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.

Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.

Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.

The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.

Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.
For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.


If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).

What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless.

This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.

Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.


Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.

Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.

Link
Bollocks quite frankly.
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  #290  
Old 18.03.2014, 16:21
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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Don't you think there's a slightly greater chance he might have said "Sh1t, we're on fire" in the circumstances? Given that he did choose to reply?
All hypothetical of course, but the fire would start with wires melting, switches tripping, all hidden behind panels. By the time there are visible flames, the cockpit would already be filling with smoke and that may have been after his last communication. In addition what could Malaysian ATC hundreds of miles away do? would they not be more likely to radio ahead to Vietnamese ATC or their Maintenance Dept for guidance on why the electrics were going loopy?
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  #291  
Old 18.03.2014, 16:31
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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If they were dealing with the beginnings of a small electrical fire (behind the panels) and trippy switches then it might very well have been a very distracted 'All right, goodnight' whilst his focus was on fixing the problem at hand....
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All hypothetical of course, but the fire would start with wires melting, switches tripping, all hidden behind panels. By the time there are visible flames, the cockpit would already be filling with smoke and that may have been after his last communication. In addition what could Malaysian ATC hundreds of miles away do? would they not be more likely to radio ahead to Vietnamese ATC or their Maintenance Dept for guidance on why the electrics were going loopy?
So was he distracted by the fire (first post) or not?

The point of an SOS is to alert the authorities so in the unlikely event of someone surviving the splashdown they might have a chance of getting rescued.

I know I'm picking on this theory a bit but compared to some others I find it highly unlikely. My personal ranking is somewhat below Aliens.
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Old 18.03.2014, 16:38
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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My personal ranking is somewhat below Aliens.
And mine is aligned to Occam's Razor i.e. look for the simplest solution with the least variables. Hijackers, remote airstrips etc.. are all too messy and make little sense when you again consider that they could simply have gone for a FedEx Cargo jet and saved themselves a lot of heat.
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Old 18.03.2014, 16:39
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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Per USAToday, apparently Courtney Love has 'found' the plane....

Link

DigitalGlobe enhanced the sat picture.
It is a ship: https://www.facebook.com/Tomnod/posts/651499788249774

PS: Here a Tomnod picture of an actual, flying, plane:
http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/...014/map/654342
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Old 18.03.2014, 16:41
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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And mine is aligned to Occam's Razor i.e. look for the simplest solution with the least variables. Hijackers, remote airstrips etc.. are all too messy and make little sense when you again consider that they could simply have gone for a FedEx Cargo jet and saved themselves a lot of heat.
And how are you going to put your pilot in the FedEx plane?
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Old 18.03.2014, 16:42
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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And mine is aligned to Occam's Razor i.e. look for the simplest solution with the least variables. Hijackers, remote airstrips etc.. are all too messy and make little sense when you again consider that they could simply have gone for a FedEx Cargo jet and saved themselves a lot of heat.
Which brngs it back to my aforementioned point, that there must have been something on the plane of value to somebody. Remember the Swiss jet in Brussels last year.
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Old 18.03.2014, 16:45
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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And how are you going to put your pilot in the FedEx plane?
In a box?

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Old 18.03.2014, 16:47
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

fedex must be worried at the moment what with everyone saying people should hijack there planes for and easy ride
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Old 18.03.2014, 16:51
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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And how are you going to put your pilot in the FedEx plane?
Cargo planes are registered to carry Cargo only yes, but quite a few of them have seats as well.

There are more than a few records of PAX on Cargo flights, but usually this involves crew from the company or very special reasons.

Alternatively, an "under the table" deal could easily be reached in a less developed country with less strict security criteria.

Admittedly, it's still not going to be easy, but I can't imagine that hijacking an airplane ever is.
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Old 18.03.2014, 16:52
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

I hear DHL planes are EVEN easier to hijack then fedex !
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Old 18.03.2014, 16:55
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Re: Malaysian Airlines flight missing

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In a box?
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