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View Poll Results: What is the likely result of the 2015 UK General Election?
Conservatives win outright majority 1 3.13%
Labour win outright majority 1 3.13%
Hung parliament; Conservatives able to form a government 15 46.88%
Hung parliament; Labour able to form a government 4 12.50%
Chaos / no party able to form stable govt 8 25.00%
No idea / too unpredictable 3 9.38%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

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  #141  
Old 08.05.2015, 11:47
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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Then 2017 might be a surprise for you. Switzerland is on track to withdraw from the Free Movement of People accord, which triggers the guillotine clause in the EU bilaterals, while the UK will have its EU referendum.

Until all this shakes out, with replacement treaties may having to be negotiated, mutual uncertainty for ch and UK citizens to be able to live and work in the other country.

But not to worry! The gnomes in London and Zurich are probably already lobbying away
In 2017 there'll be a referendum on the EU. The outcome's not been decided yet. Anyhow Switzerland isn't in the EU and her negotiations with the EU have nothing to do with the outcome of an election in the UK.

My point anyhow was this, it doesn't matter who wins. You'll still get up each morning, go to work, pay your tax get on with your life. In the grand scheme of things, very little changes. And that's the same for 95% of people in the UK too, but even less changes if you live in Switzerland.
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  #142  
Old 08.05.2015, 11:48
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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So no surprise there then. Ed has resigned.
Let's not jump the gun.
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  #143  
Old 08.05.2015, 11:49
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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Let's not jump the gun.
Ed's dead, baby. Ed's dead.
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  #144  
Old 08.05.2015, 11:51
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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In 2017 there'll be a referendum on the EU. The outcome's not been decided yet. Anyhow Switzerland isn't in the EU and her negotiations with the EU have nothing to do with the outcome of an election in the UK.

My point anyhow was this, it doesn't matter who wins. You'll still get up each morning, go to work, pay your tax get on with your life. In the grand scheme of things, very little changes. And that's the same for 95% of people in the UK too, but even less changes if you live in Switzerland.
WRONG. If the UK leaves the EU, anytime you go to an EU country, it's complicated. Anytime you do business with an EU company, it's complicated. Anytime you want to work in the EU, it's complicated. And all of this is financial AND bureaucratic. Make no mistake, leaving the EU will hurt the UK so badly it'll be Puerto Rico.
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  #145  
Old 08.05.2015, 11:54
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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WRONG. If the UK leaves the EU, anytime you go to an EU country, it's complicated. Anytime you do business with an EU company, it's complicated. Anytime you want to work in the EU, it's complicated. And all of this is financial AND bureaucratic. Make no mistake, leaving the EU will hurt the UK so badly it'll be Puerto Rico.
But the UK has not LEFT the EU. They're only going to have a referendum. Until the outcome of that is known nothing will change.
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  #146  
Old 08.05.2015, 11:57
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

I can see Cameron backtracking on the EU referendum as it will rip apart the Tories as they may only have a paper thin majority
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  #147  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:01
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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Those who voted. If you don't vote you have no right to have a share in the outcome.
Do you mean the other 30% don't get governed, or get a share in the pie of benefits if some come around or a share in the collective failure of the state (if failures come around)? Off course they have a share in the outcome. One way to look at this is that they simply don't care who governs them, so you can add this 30% to the % share of the victors in that sense (irrespective of who wins).


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Plus regardless of what those in favor of FPTP like to argue about local representation, the general election is really about electing a government. Therefore it is important that government represents the electorate as well as possible.
I have highlighted the phrase for you. In your own words the general election is about electing a government that represents the electorate. FPTP is one such mechanism that has its utility especially when the population is quite big and diverse, but often consolidated in burroughs having localised impact due to national decisions. One other way would be to perhaps give up the concept of constituency altogether and count all the votes and find the victor. It will have its own issues though.
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  #148  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:02
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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I can see Cameron backtracking on the EU referendum as it will rip apart the Tories as they may only have a paper thin majority
May depend on a Labour faction heading to a Eurosceptic view. There's been discussions of this in the Guardian amongst others for a while... And once again would mirror other European countries.
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  #149  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:03
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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In 2017 there'll be a referendum on the EU. The outcome's not been decided yet. Anyhow Switzerland isn't in the EU and her negotiations with the EU have nothing to do with the outcome of an election in the UK.

My point anyhow was this, it doesn't matter who wins. You'll still get up each morning, go to work, pay your tax get on with your life. In the grand scheme of things, very little changes. And that's the same for 95% of people in the UK too, but even less changes if you live in Switzerland.
Actually one important point is the exchange rate for CHF to £! It already rose around one percent this morning, possibly still room to move more today!
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  #150  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:06
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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Actually one important point is the exchange rate for CHF to £! It already rose around one percent this morning, possibly still room to move more today!
If it stays aroung 1.4-1.5 CHF to the £ I won't complain. Still just about a third if not half what it was in 2007.
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  #151  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:08
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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haha this made me laugh but losing (Ed) Balls is the best thing for Labour as he is an insincere snidey snidey electoral failure.

Labour losing out to UKIP is repeated often in the media but I don't buy it at all. It's more of an excuse for Labour than a real reason. UKIP voters are more naturally right wing Tories, if Cameron were a good leader he would have had a decent Tory majority with those UKIP voters
Looks like Cameron is a good leader using your definition.
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  #152  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:15
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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I can see Cameron backtracking on the EU referendum as it will rip apart the Tories as they may only have a paper thin majority
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May depend on a Labour faction heading to a Eurosceptic view. There's been discussions of this in the Guardian amongst others for a while... And once again would mirror other European countries.
Also depends on the what the referendum would ask in 2017. If it were, "Should we exit the EU?", it would certainly be one way of running Eurosceptism into a brick wall for good. But if were to ask, "Should we declare a national resolution to change the EU from within?", it may be closer to what everyone really wants.
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  #153  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:18
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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I can see Cameron backtracking on the EU referendum as it will rip apart the Tories as they may only have a paper thin majority
I see him going ahead with it, otherwise the Eurosceptic Tories will go nuts, with more defections to UKIP possible.

A referendum also takes out the wind from the UKIP sails. With ~12% of the vote those buggers are staying around for atleast another election cycle.

If the UK votes to stay, the EU question gets settled for a long time to come. If they vote to leave Cameron takes credit. How Cameron positions himself during the campaigning for the referendum itself will be fun to watch. It will be the usual high wire walk of "I proposed it, but .. but ... but .. "
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  #154  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:20
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

What next for Ed? A 1D career perhaps - he already has the hair and his Milifans
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  #155  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:22
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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I see him going ahead with it, otherwise the Eurosceptic Tories will go nuts, with more defections to UKIP possible.

A referendum also takes out the wind from the UKIP sails. With ~12% of the vote those buggers are staying around for atleast another election cycle.

If the UK votes to stay, the EU question gets settled for a long time to come. If they vote to leave Cameron takes credit. How Cameron positions himself during the campaigning for the referendum itself will be fun to watch. It will be the usual high wire walk of "I proposed it, but I dont want it to succeed"
How concerned should the Tories, or anyone for that matter, be with UKIP after these results? Couldn't they just be ignored for a long time to come? Those UKIP defectors are better served coming back and rejoining the conversation.
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  #156  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:24
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

Tories have to go ahead with a referendum, it's part of their manifesto and they couldn't survive if they made a U-Turn on it.

Perhaps this may have contributed to Labour's downfall. "Please vote Labour, but remember you're far too thick to be trusted to vote on the EU".
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  #157  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:26
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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If it stays aroung 1.4-1.5 CHF to the £ I won't complain. Still just about a third if not half what it was in 2007.
Yes it was under 1.4 yesterday.
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  #158  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:27
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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How concerned should the Tories, or anyone for that matter, be with UKIP after these results? Couldn't they just be ignored for a long time to come? Those UKIP defectors are better served coming back and rejoining the conversation.
UKIP have just proved they can prevent someone from being elected in a FPTP system by being the second or third. And that's all over England. Elsewhere I don't know.

And they may seem fruitcakes but they need representation soon, to get out of a kill the winner mentality.
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  #159  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:28
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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What next for Ed? A 1D career perhaps - he already has the hair and his Milifans
EU commissioner while the door is still open.
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  #160  
Old 08.05.2015, 12:36
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Re: UK General Election 2015: May 7 (poll)

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How concerned should the Tories, or anyone for that matter, be with UKIP after these results? Couldn't they just be ignored for a long time to come? Those UKIP defectors are better served coming back and rejoining the conversation.
It depends if Farage stays to a certain extent as he is media savvy and is convincing. His supposed successor Mark Reckless is also a tw@t. Carswell is OK, he may not stay with UKP as he's not a bigot.
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