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  #41  
Old 06.07.2015, 04:55
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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The greeks are crazy, this can easily turn into a humanitarian disaster.
Greece had six (!) state insolvencies in the last 200 years... we had plenty of similar cases in Europe but most were triggered by wars, not just pure incompetence as it is repeatedly the case in Greece. Nobody knows better than them what they are getting themselves into.

The one thing I am not getting my head around for the 4 years (!) we are discussing Greece by now: Why bother? The economy of Greece is far less relevant to Europe than a single state of Germany or France. I do understand the vague fear that leaving the Euro can be a precedent for others which in the big picture is not what Europe should be aiming for... but still: Don't we have anything more important to talk about for years than a tiny country at the fringe of the European union? If the European leaders would spend the same time and energy to finally reform the EU to work well... they'd probably generate more wealth than is needed to bail out Greece.

So this is either a huge waste of time and resources or they want the public to focus so much on Greece to not look into the other open issues instead(?).
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  #42  
Old 06.07.2015, 05:11
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Securing a prosperous future for Greece by voting against the bail-out?

Oxi? Morons!
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  #43  
Old 06.07.2015, 06:38
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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They'd....have to buy Cyprus first.
Nah, just stage a coup over there and replace the democratically elected leader with a pro-unionist. What could possibly go wrong?
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  #44  
Old 06.07.2015, 08:40
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Alls well that ends well, the Greeks voted for Syriza and this is the logical conclusion of that vote. In any case they were damned both ways, at least now they can hold their heads up and go down with some dignity.
Yeah, right. Apres nous, le deluge!

Anyway, I'm afraid in real life nobody goes down with any dignity...especially if they'll drag others with them...
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Old 06.07.2015, 08:56
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

OK... I don't get it. The Greeks refuse to implement reforms and wish to live on bailouts? Till when is this going to go on? Isn't it time they cut down on their expenses? I mean I find it weird and rather silly that there is a huff and a puff because they aren't getting any loans! Shouldn't they pay off the old loans and it they aren't able to, listen to their creditors?!
This mutual destruction isn't a very good plan
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  #46  
Old 06.07.2015, 08:58
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

At least Varoufakis resigned, good news for Greece.
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  #47  
Old 06.07.2015, 09:07
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Today is one of those rare moments when I'm proud to be Greek!
I hope we leave the Eurozone soon and we do not pay a cent for any more interest rates.
Understandable, but very sad.

As someone who has spent at least 25 holidays in various parts of Greece since 1965, and (obviously) love the country, I find the desperate situation its people are now in appalling.

I had planned to spend 2 weeks in Crete in October. But why should I risk spending my money holidaying in country where there is potentially no electricity and all that implies?

My money is that the EU simply cannot allow Greece to wither and will keep it in the euro and EU. This week will reveal, probably not all, but some...
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  #48  
Old 06.07.2015, 09:51
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

The general feeling now seems to be, give Greece enough money to stop them dying, but no more.

Let us see how the rejoicing left wing Syriza government gets them out of the hole they have dug themselves in.

Maybe Russia will rescue them, they are looking for ways to upset Europe. Oh I remember now, they are on EU sanctions.
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  #49  
Old 06.07.2015, 09:54
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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You assume I think it would be a bad thing if nobody wanted to lend money to Greece.
In fact I think this would be the best news ever.

Cheers.
The chart below depicts import, exports, and the balance of the two, for the last 50 years. As you can see, Greece has a habit of importing much more than they export. That means greeks need some other means to pay, which (a bit simplified) means they need credit.

In other words, not getting credit means there will be much less foreign goods available, including (but not limited to) fossil fuels, machinery, transport equipment such as trains and cars, power plants, etc. What's a reduced standard of living.

The greeks thought they voted against austerity, against living within their means. What they get instead is exactly that, forced upon them by themselves.
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  #50  
Old 06.07.2015, 10:06
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Greece doesn't want the strings that come with the EUR, so let Greece go back to their own currency, I don't see what the big deal is. They can be "masters of their own fate" then. And if their economy is still screwed up, then they will have to go to the IMF for a bail-out, who will then impose conditions, similar to the EU. Or they can turn to Russia, who I'm sure would ask for some "favors" in return as well....

Any way Greeks look at it, as long as they can't function financially and are turning to someone for bail-outs, somebody will be imposing conditions on them. They'll only get "freedom" once they climb out of the money pit they dug themselves into.
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  #51  
Old 06.07.2015, 10:07
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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In other words, not getting credit means there will be much less foreign goods available, including (but not limited to) fossil fuels, machinery, transport equipment such as trains and cars, power plants, etc. What's a reduced standard of living.
It gets worse, they need to import food too. Greece is utterly reliant on being given handouts.

Alas, no amount of "dignity" and other frothing at the mouth will help them unless they enact a massive cultural paradigm shift. The government needs to start collecting taxes. The Greeks need to start paying it. Why should the rest of Europe show solidarity if they are unwilling to show solidarity for each other?

All this vote accomplished is destroyed the small remainder of goodwill that the Greeks had with citizens of the other EU countries.
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  #52  
Old 06.07.2015, 10:07
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Reading some of the comments here I feel like a naughty boy who's been told off.
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  #53  
Old 06.07.2015, 10:22
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

This is quite a game of brinkmanship being played by Tsipras.

Unfortunately for a game brinkmanship to be effective the stakes have to be equally devastating to both sides, which in this case they're clearly not. In fact many would consider a Grexit at this point to have advantages for the rest of the Eurozone. I also think that the ECB has basically reached the point where they see a practically zero chance of any form of repayment.

Personally I think the only hope now is that the rest of the Eurozone would be unwilling to see Greece fall into a humanitarian crisis - and that may well be Tsipras' joker in the pack.
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  #54  
Old 06.07.2015, 10:37
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Great news from Greece, they made my day today. A good lesson of a real democracy to those preachers of 'European democratic values' doing exactly the opposite.
That is the bit I don't get - lesson of a real democracy. About 6 million Greeks voted, of which not even 4 million voted 'No'. That is not even 1% of the population of the EU and yet they seem to think that gives them a mandate to force the other 18 nations to do their bidding! The others are also elected leaders with a mandate to represent their people, the majority of which have a different political philosophy. The massive 'No' vote to my mind makes it much easier for the a sufficient number of the 18 to say 'No' and send Greece careering into an even greater recession!

The Greek government, with a mandate of only 38%, turned an negotiation into an ideology war that I fear the Greek people will pay a high price for in the coming years, if not decades.

At this stage I do not believe I will see a prosperous Greece in my life time.
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Old 06.07.2015, 10:42
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Personally I think the only hope now is that the rest of the Eurozone would be unwilling to see Greece fall into a humanitarian crisis - and that may well be Tsipras' joker in the pack.
I think this is the most likely outcome. The Euro has always been a political project and the politicians will try to fight the markets to keep it alive. There are only really two possible paths out of the crisis, but both will end up with the breakup of the EZ eventually:

1) Greece is forgiven and given debt relief, austerity is eased

Result: Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland demand equal treatment. Northern European taxpayers refuse to pay for this and we're back to square one.

2) Greece leaves the EZ, suffers some sharp pain and then recovers

Result: Italy, Portugal and Spain consider this as a viable option and decide to leave the EZ.
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Old 06.07.2015, 10:52
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Reading some of the comments here I feel like a naughty boy who's been told off.
You are a loveable scamp and scoundrel!

Sadly, you got mixed up with the wrong crowd, who led you astray with their promises of wealth and prosperity in their big-boys' club. Now they want their money back. Didn't they tell you that would happen??
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Old 06.07.2015, 10:56
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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At least Varoufakis resigned, good news for Greece.
What a wet blanket, that was his threat in the event of a 'Yes' vote.
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  #58  
Old 06.07.2015, 11:00
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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What a wet blanket, that was his threat in the event of a 'Yes' vote.
He has done his master's bidding. His work is done now.
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Old 06.07.2015, 11:02
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

http://uk.businessinsider.com/greece...gn=buffer?r=US

Tom
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Old 06.07.2015, 11:07
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-33400127
"Tsipras has a big mandate but it's up to the Greek government to persuade the eurozone they do not want to take Greece out. It seems that young people went in huge numbers and voted 'No'. The real challenge for Syriza is to bridge the gap between the young voters who voted 'No' and the older voters who voted massively for 'Yes'."
A lesson in what happens when you leave a large part of the population with nothing: they have nothing to lose!

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The Greek government was gready and determined to join a club they didn't qualify for and the EU blinded by an impossible ideal ushered Greece into their club.

Germany benefitted from a currency worth less than the D-mark. Greece had a spending spree on Germany's credit card.

Now comes the day of reckoning. Who sufferes? The Greek people and pensioners with investments. Meanwhile Christine Legrand takes home Euro 500,000 a year tax free...
Architects of this are the European countries. Greek wasn't the only country that didn't qualify to join the Euro. Germany is the country that has benefited the most.

To make the Euro work, the rich Eurozone countries need to make large transfers of their wealth to the poorer countries. At the start of the project, it seems that the first step on the Euro would make political and fiscal union a fait accompli. It seems that the richer countries may not be prepared to pay the full price that a single currency entails.

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What i will say however is the direct cause of the rise of National Socialism (Nazi Party) was the war damages that were charged to a bankrupt country and enforced, partly by French insistence and caused them so many problems and such embarrassment that it allowed a radical party to arise.

Now i am not saying Greece will cause the same problems as happened in Germany in the early 1930's, but the scenario is very similar, apart from Germany is quite big and orderly, Greece is smaller and diversified.

I doubt very much if the Greek situation will lead to anything else, but once the first one fall's, others are surely in the line of fire which may or may not lead to unforeseen consequences.

Shooting Arch Duke Ferdinand was not meant to go as far as it did.....
You are right. Actually, this is an issue that I have been concerned about for over a decade now. The rise in fascism and turn to autarky following economic collapse is a risk that I saw materialising a while back and seems to be falling into place in slow motion.

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I also think that the ECB has basically reached the point where they see a practically zero chance of any form of repayment.
Everyone has known that Greece would not be able to repay for a long long time. Even the leaked Snowden cables reveal that Merkel admitted this. Rather than extend and pretend, they now have to find a better deal or take the hit upfront.
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