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  #121  
Old 07.07.2015, 00:25
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Indeed.
The difficult point for me is how such a debt write off would be handled technically; as you say it is sovereign debt and managed via central banks.
So assume there are x billion Euros in circulation in Eurozone - so after a debt write off of say 320 B does this mean the assets backing the euro are also reduced in value?
I mean if Greece had its own currency it would handle the debt write off by simply depreciating but we can't depreciate the euro?

I know nothing of this, but I would assume, as it's on the balance sheet of various governments in some form, it will slowly creep into the respective states' budgets/balance-sheets.
Would it be recorded as "negative income", sort-of?
I' not sure what happened to the loans Germany et.al vowed for (and for which politicians assured the public that it would never come to default - ever).
How many were affected by the first and 2nd haircut?


Additionally, that debt doesn't reach maturity all at once.


The debt probably has been structured in such a way it doesn't have any impact on Maastricht-criteria (maximum indebtedness of a country in €-land).
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  #122  
Old 07.07.2015, 01:27
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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I know nothing of this, but I would assume, as it's on the balance sheet of various governments in some form, it will slowly creep into the respective states' budgets/balance-sheets.
Would it be recorded as "negative income", sort-of?
I' not sure what happened to the loans Germany et.al vowed for (and for which politicians assured the public that it would never come to default - ever).
How many were affected by the first and 2nd haircut?


Additionally, that debt doesn't reach maturity all at once.


The debt probably has been structured in such a way it doesn't have any impact on Maastricht-criteria (maximum indebtedness of a country in €-land).
Not one of my specialist topics either....
Basic issue is that in a currency union all parts are supposed to be equal or homogeneous? I don't know how you can have a stable currency when the value of one euro in terms of goods and services is so different in different countries.
For the euro cost of a month's work in Germany you get two months work in Greece?
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  #123  
Old 07.07.2015, 07:44
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Not one of my specialist topics either....
Basic issue is that in a currency union all parts are supposed to be equal or homogeneous? I don't know how you can have a stable currency when the value of one euro in terms of goods and services is so different in different countries.
For the euro cost of a month's work in Germany you get two months work in Greece?
Why should that matter? In the U.S., 15 dollars will get you an hour's labor in some places, and two in another, both in low-skilled equivalent roles. The currency isn't defined as its value in services - those are the result of two parties coming to an greenest about the value of that person's time.

Anyway, to the previous post, the value of the euro shouldn't go down in case of a Grexit. Rather, the Greeks print some drachma, proclaim it worth X euros at the initial exchange rate, and send it to their creditors. The value of the drachma immediately falls, but the debt is paid - it's just that everyone who holds drachmas (creditors and salarymen alike) find that they aren't worth very much.

Following that, Greeks turn to civil unrest as starvation sets in, being unable to afford imported food and such, and eventually the EU decides on some sort of aid to prevent people from dying in mass numbers on their doorstep, and they get stuck with the Greek mess nonetheless... So I'm glad to be in Switzerland.
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  #124  
Old 07.07.2015, 08:28
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

About the food imports problem: it'd help if the EC allowed member countries that are in dire financial straits to produce more food than the agricultural quotas define. That a place like Greece can't even produce enough food to feed it's population in 2015 is completely outrageous!
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  #125  
Old 07.07.2015, 08:47
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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About the food imports problem: it'd help if the EC allowed member countries that are in dire financial straits to produce more food than the agricultural quotas define. That a place like Greece can't even produce enough food to feed it's population in 2015 is completely outrageous!
Greece hardly has an issue with the quotas... does it? The reason it produces so little is because Greece is not exactly the best farm land for modern mass farming. And on top of that are countries in the neighbourhood significantly cheaper and have a more readily available work force willing to work for less money. Greece got some really bad press in the last ten years how farmers exploit African immigrants like slaves on their farms. Let's just say that's because they cannot find too many Greeks willing to work there.

On a related note: there is no need at all to lift any quota, we already produces far too much food. All we need to do is to distribute it better. But that would mean that bankers in Paris, Frankfurt or London could have only 15 types of apples to choose from instead of 20.
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  #126  
Old 07.07.2015, 08:59
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Some notable comments that have emerged during the past few days
Greek crisis: How Greece became Europe’s fault line
Angela Merkel has a red and a yellow button. One ends the crisis. Which does she push?
Piketty telling germans to keep their mouth shut re. debt
Negotiating in bad faith
The IMF has made an obvious point about Greece’s huge debt. Here’s why it still matters

Bottom line(s):
Greece wasn't supposed to be let in...
...but the consequences for the anglosaxon banking system were too "interesting" (i.e. incentives, incentives, incentives)
...it was an easy play to fudge wink-wink agreements with the old greek gov't members, given the country's history...
...the new guys in town are just stating the obvious - that the solutions so far have not been of any help whatsoever, so we might as well scrap them.

Cheers

P.
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  #127  
Old 07.07.2015, 09:10
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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About the food imports problem: it'd help if the EC allowed member countries that are in dire financial straits to produce more food than the agricultural quotas define. That a place like Greece can't even produce enough food to feed it's population in 2015 is completely outrageous!
Greece can produce enough food to feed its people, the problem is that since we adopted the euro it was easier to import food so we stopped producing.
After we go back to the drachma, though the first 5-6 months will be tough (and thanks in advance to the good Christians from Northern Europe for providing humanitarian relief), it should take us less than a year to become self-efficient again.
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  #128  
Old 07.07.2015, 10:26
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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No zero missing, just using the English version of Wikipedia (my link) along with a historical currency converter. Your number looks more realistic if we're trying to equate 1953 Deutschmarks to 2015 Euros. I think the converter was trying to equate a non-existent 2015 DEM to EUR or something.
Sorry, overlooked your link.

The 15bln Mark would need to be adjusted for inflation. For Germany since 1953 that's a factor of about 4.8, so the 15bln in 1953 turn into about 75bln today, divide by 1.95 to convert into €.
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  #129  
Old 07.07.2015, 11:14
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

I think the Thread title- unintentionally- says it all.


NO wins..... Nobody wins. No matter how it goes. It's just a question of how the losses are counted up.
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  #130  
Old 07.07.2015, 13:03
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Greece can produce enough food to feed its people, the problem is that since we adopted the euro it was easier to import food so we stopped producing.
After we go back to the drachma, though the first 5-6 months will be tough (and thanks in advance to the good Christians from Northern Europe for providing humanitarian relief), it should take us less than a year to become self-efficient again.
Additionally, I think I read that due to the way the transportation-industry (i.e. trucks and truck-drivers) is regulated (thanks to the influence of unions), it seems to be rather difficult and inefficient to move fresh stuff around the country, leading to a lot of waste.

As I've seen and various people have witnessed, Greek hotels have seen the writing on the wall for some time and tried to source as much food locally for some time.
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  #131  
Old 07.07.2015, 15:36
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

From ZDF today.
For the linguisticly challenged; we voted not pay!
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  #132  
Old 07.07.2015, 15:42
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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From ZDF today.
For the linguisticly challenged; we voted not pay!
Haha. The Greek man is fat and he has a moustache.

Those wacky Germans, eh?
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  #133  
Old 07.07.2015, 16:02
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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it should take us less than a year to become self-efficient again
...based on which data?
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  #134  
Old 07.07.2015, 18:32
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Haha. The Greek man is fat and he has a moustache.

Those wacky Germans, eh?
Why do you assume he is Greek?
Because he is fat with a mustache?
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  #135  
Old 07.07.2015, 18:36
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Seems the Greek delegation turned up today with no new proposals for the creditors to review

I suppose somebody knows what they are doing.
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  #136  
Old 07.07.2015, 18:45
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Seems the Greek delegation turned up today with no new proposals for the creditors to review

I suppose somebody knows what they are doing.
I was thinking the same thing. If you want to have different terms to negotiate, and you feel you have a "strong hand" because of the vote, maybe you should draw up the terms that are agreeable to you and bring them to the table...
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  #137  
Old 07.07.2015, 19:01
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Seems the Greek delegation turned up today with no new proposals for the creditors to review

I suppose somebody knows what they are doing.
I don't think everything that is said gets reported in the media.

I don't think a delegation turns up for talks without having any points to talk about.
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  #138  
Old 07.07.2015, 19:04
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Timeo daneos et donam ferentes

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/i...-2012051527146
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  #139  
Old 07.07.2015, 19:57
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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I don't think everything that is said gets reported in the media.

I don't think a delegation turns up for talks without having any points to talk about.
Whatever!

No decision announced and no firm plans for next meeting!
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  #140  
Old 07.07.2015, 20:05
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Seems they're trying the "hang on as long as possible and hope it goes away" gambit.
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