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Old 05.07.2015, 20:25
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Greek referendum - NO wins

Results still coming in but with 15% of the votes it's a given, few points up or down.

60% No / 40% Yes



What do you think happens now?

I can only see these options:

1) Grexit and drachma - an economic holocaust mainly for Greece but also Europe (especially Germany/Deutche bank and Slovenia/Cyprus/Spain for start)
2) A deal to erase some debt + new programme is rushed in within a few days and signed upon speed of light. A bit better than last week's but still awful. A few years later we are back in the same spot.

Anything that is not agreed within hours/days is a lost cause as it will be too late.
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Old 05.07.2015, 20:47
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

My main worry is the value of my investments, which will take a hammering on Monday.

Doubtless they'll pick up again.

An Greek woman interviewed on Radio 4 summed it up rather succinctly:
"The choice is to die quickly, or die slowly." Seem like they are going for the quick option...
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Old 05.07.2015, 20:57
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Or: time to quit throwing good money after bad.
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Old 05.07.2015, 20:58
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

The greeks are crazy, this can easily turn into a humanitarian disaster.
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Old 05.07.2015, 21:31
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

No money left in the banks to guarantee the importation of pharmaceuticals, fuel, food etc. etc.

I expect many, many redundancies tomorrow, as without any bank credits the companies cannot function.
How stupid can any nation get? They all followed the pied piper Tsipras.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-33400127
"Tsipras has a big mandate but it's up to the Greek government to persuade the eurozone they do not want to take Greece out. It seems that young people went in huge numbers and voted 'No'. The real challenge for Syriza is to bridge the gap between the young voters who voted 'No' and the older voters who voted massively for 'Yes'."
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:15
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Mid week the word on the street was that there are a mere 500 million Euros cash left in all the Greek banks combined. If the ECB does not urgently restart its emergency aid (and in light of the No vote set to win), the banks will run out not within days, but possibly within hours of the Monday morning.

My gut feeling still is on a hasty emergency deal to avert an imminent system collapse in Greece and potential humanitarian disaster in a western country.

Things could get ugly nonetheless.

Finally, I don't make discretionary bets because I suck donkey balls with them, but my prediction for Monday is the following:

SP500 futures open -2% down, trade sideways until Europe closes and then, having led the lemmings off the cliff, US traders turn on the jet engines and recover a large portion of the losses in a "late surge" kind of buy-the-dip. It usually was like that in these kind of crisis-but-central-banks-will-fix-it scenarios.
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:29
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-33400127
"Tsipras has a big mandate but it's up to the Greek government to persuade the eurozone they do not want to take Greece out. It seems that young people went in huge numbers and voted 'No'. The real challenge for Syriza is to bridge the gap between the young voters who voted 'No' and the older voters who voted massively for 'Yes'."
This is a fairly classic choice between punishing the young or punishing the older generation. Any choice that hits those with savings is implicitly worse for the old generation because they are more likely to have savings. Young Greeks having nothing to lose. They have no jobs, no prospects, no assets and no savings. A hard reset might seem like a good option for them. It is thus not surprising that (consciously or not) they voted as they did.

Now of course, they might not realize that if the safety net (or what remains of it) of the savings of the older generation disappears, things are going to get much much worse before they get better.
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:30
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

Great news from Greece, they made my day today. A good lesson of a real democracy to those preachers of 'European democratic values' doing exactly the opposite.

A Greek nation has once again shown to the world how it looks when one stands for values and principles, rather than hypocrisy.

A slam in the face to... you name it. Those who deserve it.

Kudos to you, all my Greek friends.
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:33
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

What I don't get is if the IMF and ECB were to forgive the Greeks their debt....then what?

They will just need more money in a few years.
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:34
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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My main worry is the value of my investments, which will take a hammering on Monday.

Doubtless they'll pick up again.

An Greek woman interviewed on Radio 4 summed it up rather succinctly:
"The choice is to die quickly, or die slowly." Seem like they are going for the quick option...
Remind me to cry over your investments. Which is your preferred choice for a greek women? A slow death, as long as your investment is safe?
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:35
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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The greeks are crazy, this can easily turn into a humanitarian disaster.
For whom? Germans? IMF?

Remind me to cry...
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:36
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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No money left in the banks to guarantee the importation of pharmaceuticals, fuel, food etc. etc.

I expect many, many redundancies tomorrow, as without any bank credits the companies cannot function.
How stupid can any nation get? They all followed the pied piper Tsipras.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-33400127
"Tsipras has a big mandate but it's up to the Greek government to persuade the eurozone they do not want to take Greece out. It seems that young people went in huge numbers and voted 'No'. The real challenge for Syriza is to bridge the gap between the young voters who voted 'No' and the older voters who voted massively for 'Yes'."
Ah, they really got stupid, right?
Maybe it's about time they be governed again, like in WWII.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milita...g_World_War_II
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:38
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Remind me to cry over your investments. Which is your preferred choice for a greek women? A slow death, as long as your investment is safe?
So: better that the Greek woman can retire than AbFab? No wonder they're winning so many friends.
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:39
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Great news from Greece, they made my day today. A good lesson of a real democracy to those preachers of 'European democratic values' doing exactly the opposite.

A Greek nation has once again shown to the world how it looks when one stands for values and principles, rather than hypocrisy.

A slam in the face to... you name it. Those who deserve it.

Kudos to you, all my Greek friends.
Well, I can understand the vote result and all the emotions behind it, but I'm not sure you can actually be happy or proud about this situation... Things just don't function this way no matter how much we wish they would.
It will be (even) tough(er) for the Greeks.
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:42
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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So: better that the Greek woman can retire than AbFab? No wonder they're winning so many friends.
A (majority of) Greek woma(e)n are not likely to have any investments, and are struggling to survive on their meagre pensions.

I can't guess, but am sure AbFab has a bit more than that...
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:43
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

To understand if the European monetary union makes sense, look at all the nations that do not have the Euro. Predominately you will see fiscally strong nations: the UK, the Nordic pair, Czech, Poland... How is it that Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal are in a monetary union with Austria and Germany? How does it make any sense that those countries should share monetary policy? They are physically on the same continent, yes, but they have been culturally separated since the start of known history.

This is a good step forward for the Greeks for their sovereignty, which has been beaten about the head the past few years. Now they are masters of their own fates, and I firmly believe people are better people when they have to face consequences for their actions, good and bad.

For the doom-saying, Greece's unemployment rate is what now? 25.6 % The USA during the great depression? 23 % max? How is this not better for them going forward, rather than being and indentured servant nation? Do we want to bring back debtor's prisons for entire nations now?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debtors%27_prison
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Old 05.07.2015, 22:50
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

I think this is a bit of a test trail now to see more countries leaving the EU.

I for one have never really supported the EU as cultures between nations are much to different. I think this is the beginning of the end for the EU where it will regress back to what it once was. (quality over quantity)

While I am in support of the NO vote it will be a few tough years ahead for the Greeks in order to reestablish themselves in the market.
Tourism will boom, they likely made an gas/oil agreement with Russia behind closed doors, so yes I wish them the best of luck and hope to see this for the rest of the EU to follow in the following years
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Old 05.07.2015, 23:05
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Great news from Greece, they made my day today. A good lesson of a real democracy to those preachers of 'European democratic values' doing exactly the opposite.

A Greek nation has once again shown to the world how it looks when one stands for values and principles, rather than hypocrisy...
I admit I know exactly one Greek in person and so I can't relate at all but...how was the situation un-Democratic before? AFAIK the Greek people voted to join the EU and the single currency. They've got representatives in the EU parliament. They've democratically elected all the leaders that helped put them in this mess and signed previous debt agreements.

What exactly do the majority of Greek people want? More bailout money? More time? To stay in the Euro, or not? If they're taking control of their future with this vote, what does that future look like?
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Old 05.07.2015, 23:07
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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Remind me to cry over your investments. Which is your preferred choice for a greek women? A slow death, as long as your investment is safe?
I don't think you have really grasped the situation.

The Greek government was gready and determined to join a club they didn't qualify for and the EU blinded by an impossible ideal ushered Greece into their club.

Germany benefitted from a currency worth less than the D-mark. Greece had a spending spree on Germany's credit card.

Now comes the day of reckoning. Who sufferes? The Greek people and pensioners with investments. Meanwhile Christine Legrand takes home Euro 500,000 a year tax free...
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Old 05.07.2015, 23:13
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Re: Greek referendum - NO wins

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The greeks are crazy, this can easily turn into a humanitarian disaster.
Into a what?
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