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  #901  
Old 21.02.2016, 13:47
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Donald Trump & Co

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So Clinton won in Nevada and Trump looks to be leading in South Carolina.

For those of you who are experts in US voting; are these significant results?
Not an expert (no one is an expert on this election, in particular), but the results are significant. Hillary significantly decreased her chances that she will be indicted by the Obama Admin's Department of Justice by beating the Bern in Nevada. (If she loses the Primary, it would be a much easier call for Obama to approve the forthcoming(?) FBI recommendation that Hillary be indicted. It's hard to see the Obama Admin following an FBI recommendation to indict the Democrat nominee. They just don't care that much about the rule of law.)

Meanwhile, a loss for Trump would have pushed him off of his pedestal. That didn't happen.

That said, if you look at the Republican results:

Republican
100% Reporting
Delegates Allocated: 44/50
Delegates
Winner D. Trump 32.5% 239,851 44
M. Rubio 22.5% 165,881
T. Cruz 22.3% 164,790
J. Bush 7.8% 57,863
J. Kasich 7.6% 56,206
B. Carson 7.2% 53,326

Source: http://www.politico.com/2016-electio...#ixzz40njpHjLd

...you'll see that just taking Rubio and Cruz's totals, you're at basically 50% - well ahead of Trump's 32.5%.

Add in Kasich and Bush voters to the Rubio column (where they would be expected to migrate), and Rubio is beating Trump by himself, at basically 38% (Rubio) to 32.5% (Trump).

Carson just announced he's staying in the race (for now, at least). It's hard to see his support going to Trump once he drops out. Will it go to Cruz (a more natural progression but one put in doubt by the fall-out between Carson and Cruz) or to Rubio when he does?

The point of all of this is that it is all coming down to a question of timing: Will either Cruz or Rubio throw in the towel before the major voting dates of March 1 (Super Tuesday) and March 15th? I doubt it.

If neither gives up, it looks like Cruz will not win the nomination in a three-man race and his continued participation in it will be a major advantage for Trump.

If neither Cruz nor Rubio gives up, then Rubio might squeak by the Donald with a 2 - 7% vote margin in enough states' elections on Mar. 1 & 15th to take the Republican nomination, or he might not. Only time will tell.
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  #902  
Old 21.02.2016, 13:55
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

For good and for bad - Jeb is out.

From what I can see, the Republican Party lineup is now just loonies and lobby-stooges, while the Democratic Party lineup is basically a loony and a lobby-stooge.
Lobbyists in DC will be the same, though, before and after the election.

So, the actual politics, policies, laws and international treaties you get out of DC is probably more dependent on the products you buy than on what is on your ballot-paper...
That and whether you actually support candidates who dare to vote on cuts for the military.
Making "America great again" without spending more on the military would be an interesting trick to pull-off.
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  #903  
Old 21.02.2016, 13:57
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Re: Donald Trump & Co

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The point of all of this is that it is all coming down to a question of timing: Will either Cruz or Rubio throw in the towel before the major voting dates of March 1 (Super Tuesday) and March 15th? I doubt it.

If neither gives up, it looks like Cruz will not win the nomination in a three-man race and his continued participation in it will be a major advantage for Trump.

If neither Cruz nor Rubio gives up, then Rubio might squeak by the Donald with a 2 - 7% vote margin in enough states' elections on Mar. 1 & 15th to take the Republican nomination, or he might not. Only time will tell.
My money's on Rubio as long as it stays a three horse race.

Do you think there's any dirt on Trump that could force him out of the running before March 15th, or has he proved to be indestructible now?

Interesting to see Limbaugh bouncing between Trump and Cruz. He appears to be ciritical and supportive of both in equal measure.
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Old 21.02.2016, 14:05
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Re: Donald Trump & Co

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My money's on Rubio as long as it stays a three horse race.

Do you think there's any dirt on Trump that could force him out of the running before March 15th, or has he proved to be indestructible now?
I don't think there's anything Trump can do, or anything in his past, that will make him drop out. His supporters are protest voters. They want to blow up the system. That's why his numbers go up when he says outrageous things.
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  #905  
Old 21.02.2016, 14:10
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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on very important thing that i just don't understand: How can anybody vote for a guy that voluntarily has that hair? Moreover, how can anyone vote for a guy who clearly only surrounds himself with toadying sycophants, even the image consultants, because he still has that hair...
donald-trump-co-9927_2542_500.jpeg
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  #906  
Old 21.02.2016, 14:44
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

My American friends have sent me this link and I'm left wondering if this photo release can hold any sway with Dem voters.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/l...219-story.html

We've seen Trump struggling to establish his religious credentials, not that it should be an issue.

I'm not religious at all, but I'm praying for Rubio vs Sanders.
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  #907  
Old 21.02.2016, 15:23
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Re: Donald Trump & Co

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My money's on Rubio as long as it stays a three horse race.

Do you think there's any dirt on Trump that could force him out of the running before March 15th, or has he proved to be indestructible now?

Interesting to see Limbaugh bouncing between Trump and Cruz. He appears to be ciritical and supportive of both in equal measure.

He's gone (near) bankrupt how many times? Three?
There's probably so much dirt on him that they don't know where to start.
And as remarked, his supporters don't really care anyway.
They consider the other candidates to be worse in one way or the other.
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  #908  
Old 21.02.2016, 17:52
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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So Clinton won in Nevada and Trump looks to be leading in South Carolina.

For those of you who are experts in US voting; are these significant results?
It's still very early days and a lot can still happen. The electoral arithmetic at this point is still pretty insignificant.

But more important than the arithmetic advantage is the morale boost of being in the lead or not.
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  #909  
Old 22.02.2016, 00:57
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

This election is like watching a train wreck happen in slow motion. Nothing to do except to get as far away from the wreckage as possible. I was hoping this would be the year for a moderate to step forward........I guess America isn't ready for common sense.

In regards to Trump reveling the truth to who is resposnsble for 9-11, good. I hope he does, just not in the Oval Office. Just remember that the first skeptics to the official story happened to be the first responders. To many unanswered questions, like how does an indestructible black box not survive but a few paper passports were found unharmed. (Cough, cough)
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  #910  
Old 22.02.2016, 01:23
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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He doesn't know anything. He's saying he will put top secret dossiers in the public domain if elected.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but even if elected, he wouldn't have the executive autonomy to do that.

This is a thoroughly despicable move by Trump. It's emotional manipulation of the very worst kind and I can only hope that America sees it for the nasty move it is.
yes, Trump would have the power as Chief Executive to cause the release of the 28 pages of the CIA report on 9/11 that remain secret, and which almost without question reveal US government knowledge of direct Saudi government involvement in 9/11.

Trump is an asshole and a lunatic, but even the liberal press in the US is applauding Trump's positions on Bush, Cheney, Iraq and the Saudis. the US has been barking up the wrong tree for almost 15 years over 9/11, and has spent trillions of dollars and wasted ten of thousands of American lives (and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi and Afghani lives).
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  #911  
Old 22.02.2016, 01:47
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

Hmm, if and when Trump becomes the new pres., will he use the uncovered secret documents as motivation to beat the war drums and go after the house of Saud?

Will GWB et al finally go to trial for war crimes?

Will Palin be vice pres.?

Is Bin Laden still alive?

such a soap opera...
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  #912  
Old 22.02.2016, 02:12
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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yes, Trump would have the power as Chief Executive to cause the release of the 28 pages of the CIA report on 9/11 that remain secret, and which almost without question reveal US government knowledge of direct Saudi government involvement in 9/11.
Far more likely to contain the evidence and identities of agents in the field, and as such, should remain confidential.

Either way, we can only speculate, but if there's anything I abhor in this World it's conspiracy theories. Fact is always stranger than fiction.
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Old 22.02.2016, 02:50
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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Either way, we can only speculate, but if there's anything I abhor in this World it's conspiracy theories. Fact is always stranger than fiction.
I also abhor consipracy theories. the Saudi involvement in 9/11 is hardly a conspiracy theory, however, it has been well-known since almost immediately after the tragedy.



if the concern is the identities of agents in the field, then that information can easily be redacted without blacking 28 whole pages. as a US citizen, I struggle with understanding why anything my government does should be kept secret from me, especially since I am paying for it.
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  #914  
Old 22.02.2016, 08:01
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

It is all your own fault. If you had remained British this circus would never have happened. Trump would be in the Tower of London awaiting the executioner.
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Old 24.02.2016, 14:16
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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Technically speaking, superdelegates can vote for whomever they want. However there are fewer superdelgates than pledged delegates, so it's not realistic to assume they could or would tip the entire nomination process unless the total delegates for each is very close. It will be interesting to see how many delegates each has after Super Tuesday. I think Bernie is in it for the long haul and has a lot of support from non-establishment-type Dems.

Snopes article with a bit more info about how it works and the claims
I most strongly disagree.

Dems superdelegates (SD) could overturn primaries that result in ordinary delegates relations of 60% against 40% (assuming only two candidates); 2381 ordinary delegates vs 1588 ordinary plus all 794 superdelegates.

HC already has 438 SD votes, 258 are uncommitted.

Just as a reference:
Only a small minority of swiss federal referendum votes are more clear than 60/40.

Edit:
Seems 794 SD was for the last primaries, this year there are 715.

Last edited by Urs Max; 24.02.2016 at 14:38.
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  #916  
Old 24.02.2016, 14:49
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

Trump won Nevada with (for me) an amazingly high margin!

He is looking good for super Tuesday according to most of the polls.

God bless America; must tidy out my bomb shelter and stock up with wine
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  #917  
Old 24.02.2016, 14:53
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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Far more likely to contain the evidence and identities of agents in the field, and as such, should remain confidential.

Either way, we can only speculate, but if there's anything I abhor in this World it's conspiracy theories. Fact sometimes is always stranger than fiction.
FTFY

For starters it would be enough to simply prosecute the obvious crimes. For instance it is a crime to destroy or tamper with crime evidence. The rubble of the three collapsed buildings definitely was evidence, its removal and export to China was ordered as little as two weeks after the planes had hit. Doesn't matter which version of the story is true, those who signed that order clearly need to be prosecuted and jailed.
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  #918  
Old 24.02.2016, 15:01
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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It is all your own fault. If you had remained British this circus would never have happened. Trump would be in the Tower of London awaiting the executioner.
Now he's banished to America. Isn't that more or less the same thing?
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  #919  
Old 25.02.2016, 21:50
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

Rubio and Kasich Are Living Out a Classic Game Theory Dilemma:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/up...omination.html

Game theorists must rejoice watching this train-wreck unfold.

Last edited by rainer_d; 26.02.2016 at 02:00.
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  #920  
Old 26.02.2016, 09:40
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

Rubio finally seems to have got one over Trump. In the last debate before Super Tuesday, Rubio (and Cruz) landed some pretty heavy punches. My favourites: Rubio accused Trump of repeating the same old statements over and over again, without substance, which resulted in Trump stuttering: "I'm not repeating myself! I'm not repeating myself. I'm not repeating myself!", and Carson, sheltering as usual under his unwanted invisibility cloak, at one point called out plaintively "Can someone attack me?"

My Super Tuesday predictions: Cruz will win in Texas. Trump may win the bulk of the rest but very soon there will be a deal between Rubio and Kasich and Kasich will bow out gracefully, hopefully right after Super Tuesday. I think Rubio may edge Trump in Florida, then ultimately edge Trump for the nomination.
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