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Old 07.12.2015, 10:54
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Thread split - French politics/elections

Mod note - This is a thread split from Donald Trump and Co.

Shall we talk about .. and Co being Marine Lepen. Seriously concerned about what happened in France yesterday- with 30+% of the vote going to the Front National, and the whole of France bar Britanny and the South West taken by the right or the far right- including the whole of Eastern France near us.

Hopefully that was a protest vote that will not materialise next week-end on second tour of voting- and 1000s of those who didn't bother to go and vote will kick themselves up the backside and vote this time.

Last edited by 3Wishes; 07.12.2015 at 15:38. Reason: clarifying thread split
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Old 07.12.2015, 11:24
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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Shall we talk about .. and Co being Marine Lepen. Seriously concerned about what happened in France yesterday- with 30+% of the vote going to the Front National, and the whole of France bar Britanny and the South West taken by the right or the far right- including the whole of Eastern France near us.

Hopefully that was a protest vote that will not materialise next week-end on second tour of voting- and 1000s of those who didn't bother to go and vote will kick themselves up the backside and vote this time.
So the socialists will likely withdraw their candidates so that socialist votes will go to Conservatives , instead of FN, which clearly had a mandate.

I think we'll see a repeat of this over and over in most of the so called "democratic" west. Its happening in Sweden and elsewhere. But its a cheap way for the establishment to claim a mandate, instead of actually doing a good job and earning a mandate.

This strategy will not last very long, and the longer the pressure is built at the extreme right, the more extreme that right will be by the time it enters into power.

Socialists were given enough space and rope to fail and hang itself, and they have. To really deal with the extreme right, you'd have to do the same. They should be given enough rope to hang themselves, instead of blindfolidng the population and usurping democracy. Otherwise, they keep growing.
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Old 07.12.2015, 11:40
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

Would you consider encouraging the vast number of people who didn't go and vote last week-end (just a tad under 50%) to go and vote next week-end as 'usurping democracy' though? I'd say not.
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Old 07.12.2015, 11:46
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

What leads you to believe that those who didn't vote would vote differently from those who did?

Tom
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Old 07.12.2015, 12:16
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

If you have done a bit of analysis and listened to TV, read the Press- it seems quite evident that the left and the right are quite divided- playing right into the hands of the NF.

What is amazing to me, is that the whole of Eastern France, mainly rural and with relatively few immigrants, as in Franche-Comté near me, with very few from North Africa for instance- but with 1000s of daily commuters into Switzerland- have voted massively for the FN.

Sometimes difficult for Brits to get their head around the complexity of parties in France. In the UK you basically have 1 party on left, 1 on right, the Greens and Lib-Dems sort of in the middle- and then fringe loonies. With the (totally undemocratic- one could argue) FPP (First past the post) system- only large parties have any chance. Both left and right in France are represented by so many different parties - and the FN has played 'divide and rule'.
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Old 07.12.2015, 12:26
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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So the socialists will likely withdraw their candidates so that socialist votes will go to Conservatives , instead of FN, which clearly had a mandate.

I think we'll see a repeat of this over and over in most of the so called "democratic" west. Its happening in Sweden and elsewhere. But its a cheap way for the establishment to claim a mandate, instead of actually doing a good job and earning a mandate.

This strategy will not last very long, and the longer the pressure is built at the extreme right, the more extreme that right will be by the time it enters into power.

Socialists were given enough space and rope to fail and hang itself, and they have. To really deal with the extreme right, you'd have to do the same. They should be given enough rope to hang themselves, instead of blindfolidng the population and usurping democracy. Otherwise, they keep growing.
How is this anti-democratic? The voters will be faced with a clear choice between the FN and [someone else] and will in most cases choose the[someone else]. As with the SVP in Switzerland in Standerat run-offs, the FN usually fail to increase their vote from the initial 30% because the 70% majority will have nothing to do with them. Seems like a good operation of democracy to me unlike the FPTP farce that operates in the UK.


30% doesn't make a mandate.
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Old 07.12.2015, 12:27
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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So the socialists will likely withdraw their candidates so that socialist votes will go to Conservatives , instead of FN, which clearly had a mandate.

I think we'll see a repeat of this over and over in most of the so called "democratic" west. Its happening in Sweden and elsewhere. But its a cheap way for the establishment to claim a mandate, instead of actually doing a good job and earning a mandate.

This strategy will not last very long, and the longer the pressure is built at the extreme right, the more extreme that right will be by the time it enters into power.

Socialists were given enough space and rope to fail and hang itself, and they have. To really deal with the extreme right, you'd have to do the same. They should be given enough rope to hang themselves, instead of blindfolidng the population and usurping democracy. Otherwise, they keep growing.
The FN is a strange beast.

In the early days, the FN grew largely at the expense of the rebublican parties of the centre right, in those days still UDF and RPR. This was in the 1980s under Francois Mitterand. Mitterand had himself in his younger years pledged allegiance to Pétain but later dropped the national bit out of socialism and crossed over to the socialist party and consolidated its power by encouraging discord among the centre right opposition. One of his tools in this was the FN. Le Pen and those around him came from the Catholic and Identitarian rightist fringe plus a handful of colonialist nostalgics from the Algerian war. Nothing could be further from the socialist party's core voter block but the new guys picked disgruntled and disillusioned voters from the right and thus weakened these parties, keeping Mitterand in power seemingly forever.

However, those that play with fire often get burnt and Le Pen senior was not one to show gratitude to his past benefactors or stick to the script. Having reached its maximum potential on it home ground, the party moved to the left on many positions poaching voters in working class socialist heartlands. This eventually led to the end of the socialist reign and brought the centre right back into power.

France is thus a country where both traditional political forces owe a debt to the FN but also see it as an enemy. So they are quite happy seeing it where it is but don't want to see it getting any stronger.
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Old 07.12.2015, 12:29
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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If you have done a bit of analysis and listened to TV, read the Press- it seems quite evident that the left and the right are quite divided- playing right into the hands of the NF.

What is amazing to me, is that the whole of Eastern France, mainly rural and with relatively few immigrants, as in Franche-Comté near me, with very few from North Africa for instance- but with 1000s of daily commuters into Switzerland- have voted massively for the FN.
Like those backward, uncivilized ignorant savages in the Provence-Alpes-Côte-Azur region voting in favor of Marion LePen? Why aren't they voting like ignorant socialist city scum?

So you have this situation where socialists will be voting for the Conservative party in droves. In doing so, they really ought to come to terms with what they are in fact doing, not come back on it later hypocritically denying what they have done.

It really isn't al that amazing Odile. Its just coming to terms with certain realities. Politics driven by media is somewhat hyperbolic and not readily credible. I think people nowadays would rather have Real Politik now rather than a rude awakening later.
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Old 07.12.2015, 12:39
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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The FN is a strange beast.
...
France is thus a country where both traditional political forces owe a debt to the FN but also see it as an enemy. So they are quite happy seeing it where it is but don't want to see it getting any stronger.
It seems like a different FN now than it was before, or at least Marine has tried to shift it to be more inclusive.
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Old 07.12.2015, 12:43
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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Like those backward, uncivilized ignorant savages in the Provence-Alpes-Côte-Azur region voting in favor of Marion LePen? Why aren't they voting like ignorant socialist city scum?

So you have this situation where socialists will be voting for the Conservative party in droves. In doing so, they really ought to come to terms with what they are in fact doing, not come back on it later hypocritically denying what they have done.

It really isn't al that amazing Odile. Its just coming to terms with certain realities. Politics driven by media is somewhat hyperbolic and not readily credible. I think people nowadays would rather have Real Politik now rather than a rude awakening later.
I think party leaderships want their voters to transfer in a block to another party of their choice, thus keeping the FN out. And there are quite a few out there who will. But there are also those who won't.

The last time round, when Le Pen senior was in the second round of the presidentials, I think he got something like 17% in the first round and 18% in the second round. Many interpret this as showing that the FN was unable to mobilize many voters beyond its core group. But if you look at the voter turnout, this increased massively in the second round (following a massive and intense campaign best summarized as everybody agains Le Pen) so in fact there was a massive increase in FN voters despite a campaign clearly pushing the other way.

Now one mistake historians often make is that they think history is only capable of repeating itself. The 17% that daddy Le Pen got and celebrated as a success would be a interpreted as a major slap in the face for daughter Le Pen, who is more liklely to get double that. The dynamics and stakes are different this time around. You only need to look at the way the media (including the international media) are treating Marine compared to how they treated her father. They are much more ready to let her speak without interrupting her and much of the aggressiveness is gone. They know she could one day be France's first female president and so are maybe hedging their bets by repairing some fences before its too late.
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Old 07.12.2015, 12:46
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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It seems like a different FN now than it was before, or at least Marine has tried to shift it to be more inclusive.
Without doubt, Marine has been very smart at reaching out to minorities, especially homosexuals but also to some extent integrated and moderate muslims.
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Old 07.12.2015, 17:40
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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Would you consider encouraging the vast number of people who didn't go and vote last week-end (just a tad under 50%) to go and vote next week-end as 'usurping democracy' though? I'd say not.
What makes you think those who didn't vote would not vote FN?

This time around at 5pm sunday participation rate with 43.01% was four points higher than the 39.29% registered last time at the same hour.

So in reality higher participation rate and higher share for FN. If anything can be read out of it (I'm not saying one can) it's that the newly mobilized in general tend to favor FN.

What can be said so far (due to surveys) is that about 60% of the votes for FN were intended as a vote against the established parties. But that doesn't change the FN's huge success and ever increasing share.
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Old 07.12.2015, 17:46
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Re: Donald Trump and Co

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What makes you think those who didn't vote wouldn't vote FN?

This time around at 5pm sunday participation rate with 43.01% was four points higher than the 39.29% registered last time at the same hour.

So in reality higher participation rate and higher share for FN. If anything can be read out of it (I'm not saying one can) it's that the newly mobilized in general tend to favor FN.
I have read similar stuff about UKIP. Non conformist parties do not only poach voters of other parties but also appeal to non voters.
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