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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #4121  
Old 13.07.2016, 12:08
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well as I posted before I do not envy May.

May cannot simply ignore a petition with 4 million signatures, the largest number ever on this site.
She also has to consider the counter petition "to invoke Art. 50 immediately" has only achieved 90 thousand signatures so far which is an indicator of some lack of enthusiasm; needs a minimum of 100K before the Govt. is obliged to reply.

Of course different countries have different laws but here in Switzerland so many signatures would force a referendum; even on a population comparison that would be equivalent to ca. 400 thousand signatures.

Best case is Parliament debates, then comes to no conclusions and the whole idea is forgotten.

Worst case is Parliament recommends a second Referendum; May ignores that view & then has to face a vote of no confidence
Of course she can. 4 mil is what? Around 1% (maths dunce here so don't yell at me if it's wrong ) of the total 33,551,983 people that voted in the referendum. If she can ignore the 16mil+ that voted Remain she can certainly ignore the much smaller number.
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  #4122  
Old 13.07.2016, 12:43
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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IF UK leaves EEA it will be much less attractive to set up shop in the UK, but if instead UK stays in EEA it must accept all four freedoms including free movement of people - you see the dilemma.
The EU is being fundamentalist about Chapter 2 (Freedom of Movement for Workers) of their charter, as it perfectly fits into Germany's need for population growth. Also, Chapter 2 stipulates the free movement of "workers", not anyone and everyone. This can certainly be caveated as needed, if there is a political will to do so.

The UK has finite space and is feeling the effects of uncontrolled migration. Germany still has lots of room to fill. And if Germany should run short, they have in the past come across the concept of Lebensraum. It does not look like the rest of Europe shares Germany's perspective on FMOP fundamentalism.

It may seem inconceivable today, but check back in 5 years if the interpretation of Chapter 2 stays the same.
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  #4123  
Old 13.07.2016, 13:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I'm sure I saw somewhere that the call for a new referendum had been rejected. Wasn't it on the petition site that the way a new referendum was being asked for wasn't valid.

Also this talk of a two year time limit is kind of interesting. In the majority of walks of life time limits are not adhered to and mostly broken.

At the end of the day it all comes down to how well both sides do in the negotitations.

May is being painted as the ideal person to do it in the media at the moment, whether that plays out or not only time will tell. But what she's saying makes sense and the pressure from Europe is being mostly ignored. She seems to be playing it her way at the moment.

If she'll win and get what the majority in the referendum want (if that can be even accurately at detail level stated) is another question.
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  #4124  
Old 13.07.2016, 13:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Why settle for a 65mln market when you have a 500mln market available instead?
Not sure whether you don't realise that it isn't an either or decision, or whether you just went ahead and made a stupid argument regardless.
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  #4125  
Old 13.07.2016, 13:32
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The EU is being fundamentalist about Chapter 2 (Freedom of Movement for Workers) of their charter, as it perfectly fits into Germany's need for population growth. Also, Chapter 2 stipulates the free movement of "workers", not anyone and everyone. This can certainly be caveated as needed, if there is a political will to do so.

The UK has finite space and is feeling the effects of uncontrolled migration. Germany still has lots of room to fill. And if Germany should run short, they have in the past come across the concept of Lebensraum. It does not look like the rest of Europe shares Germany's perspective on FMOP fundamentalism.

It may seem inconceivable today, but check back in 5 years if the interpretation of Chapter 2 stays the same.

the UK should re-join EFTA
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  #4126  
Old 13.07.2016, 13:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm sure I saw somewhere that the call for a new referendum had been rejected. Wasn't it on the petition site that the way a new referendum was being asked for wasn't valid.

Also this talk of a two year time limit is kind of interesting. In the majority of walks of life time limits are not adhered to and mostly broken.

At the end of the day it all comes down to how well both sides do in the negotitations.

May is being painted as the ideal person to do it in the media at the moment, whether that plays out or not only time will tell. But what she's saying makes sense and the pressure from Europe is being mostly ignored. She seems to be playing it her way at the moment.

If she'll win and get what the majority in the referendum want (if that can be even accurately at detail level stated) is another question.
"I'm sure I saw somewhere that the call for a new referendum had been rejected." That was the first Govt. statement. Now they are allowing a debate; backtracking in action
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  #4127  
Old 13.07.2016, 13:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Slightly off topic but more of Jeremy corbyns Kinder Gentler Kind Of Politics today when Angela eagle had her office windows smashed in for daring to launch a leadership challenge against him.
Labours NEC has suspended all local party meetings because of intimidation and bullying. A number of female labour mp's have had intimidating messages and have contacted police. It's all in the main article on the labour contest in today's telegraph. Loving this Gentler Kinder Politics man, i dread to think what dirty politics is to him!
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  #4128  
Old 13.07.2016, 14:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm sure I saw somewhere that the call for a new referendum had been rejected. Wasn't it on the petition site that the way a new referendum was being asked for wasn't valid.

Also this talk of a two year time limit is kind of interesting. In the majority of walks of life time limits are not adhered to and mostly broken.

At the end of the day it all comes down to how well both sides do in the negotitations.

May is being painted as the ideal person to do it in the media at the moment, whether that plays out or not only time will tell. But what she's saying makes sense and the pressure from Europe is being mostly ignored. She seems to be playing it her way at the moment.

If she'll win and get what the majority in the referendum want (if that can be even accurately at detail level stated) is another question.
The referendum petition was effectively asking for the rules of the referendum to be altered and made retroactive, which isn't possible. So yes, it's been rejected. It will still be debated on the 5th September by Parliament though as it reached the 100,000 signatures needed. That's part of the rules for these e-petitions.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36777494

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the UK should re-join EFTA
Nope, because then you're back with the problem of having to accept the free movement agreement. Better to maybe use it as a basis to negotiate individual bilateral agreements as Switzerland has with the EU. But then we know the EU will be stubborn about letting parts of the agreements be renegotiated, especially free movement. Best then to start with a completely clean slate and work from there. Decide what we want out of Europe and then they can decide whether they want to agree or not.
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  #4129  
Old 13.07.2016, 14:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Labours NEC has suspended all local party meetings because of intimidation and bullying. A number of female labour mp's have had intimidating messages and have contacted police. It's all in the main article on the labour contest in today's telegraph. Loving this Gentler Kinder Politics man, i dread to think what dirty politics is to him!
I don't believe that he had any personal hand in the intimidation or brick throwing, or that he secretly sanctions it.

But what it does sho is how unhinged part of his supporter base has become.
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  #4130  
Old 13.07.2016, 14:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I don't believe that he had any personal hand in the intimidation or brick throwing, or that he secretly sanctions it.

But what it does sho is how unhinged part of his supporter base has become.
I admit I am a bit surprised at how readily his opposition is prepared to make him personally responsible for these acts. (Yes, I understand that they are trying to prove that he isn't in control, but there are other ways to do that than to subvert due course.)
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  #4131  
Old 13.07.2016, 14:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Labours NEC has suspended all local party meetings because of intimidation and bullying. A number of female labour mp's have had intimidating messages and have contacted police. It's all in the main article on the labour contest in today's telegraph. Loving this Gentler Kinder Politics man, i dread to think what dirty politics is to him!
Really? Yet it makes neither their online version nor the BBC's news website. I can find only one reference to this on the inews website.

Still, doesn't surprise me. The unions see Corbyn as their messiah and won't stand for anyone trying to oust him. Labour Party will split in two soon whoever wins. The current batch of Labour MPs can't stay if he wins so off they'll go and form their own little group, and the unions et al won't rally behind Eagle/Smith if they win so off they'll go and form their own little group.
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  #4132  
Old 13.07.2016, 14:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Really? Yet it makes neither their online version nor the BBC's news website. I can find only one reference to this on the inews website.

Still, doesn't surprise me. The unions see Corbyn as their messiah and won't stand for anyone trying to oust him. Labour Party will split in two soon whoever wins. The current batch of Labour MPs can't stay if he wins so off they'll go and form their own little group, and the unions et al won't rally behind Eagle/Smith if they win so off they'll go and form their own little group.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...n-unions-vote/
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Old 13.07.2016, 14:51
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Sorry, can't read it behind the paywall.
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  #4134  
Old 13.07.2016, 15:00
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Sorry, can't read it behind the paywall.
Strange

It wasn't behind a paywall for me. And I definitely don't have a subscription.
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  #4135  
Old 13.07.2016, 15:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Strange

It wasn't behind a paywall for me. And I definitely don't have a subscription.
Well, this is what I see. Maybe it was available free early on and isn't now?
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  #4136  
Old 13.07.2016, 15:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well, this is what I see. Maybe it was available free early on and isn't now?
Works for me as of a few seconds ago and I sure as hell don't have a Torygraph subscription.
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  #4137  
Old 13.07.2016, 15:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Works for me as of a few seconds ago and I sure as hell don't have a Torygraph subscription.
It could be that non regesitered users are limited to three articles per day or something like that?
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Old 13.07.2016, 15:59
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Now that's interesting. Using my default IE10 browser I get the paywall, but if I past the link into Firefox it's fine.
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  #4139  
Old 13.07.2016, 16:14
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Not sure whether you don't realise that it isn't an either or decision, or whether you just went ahead and made a stupid argument regardless.
Could there be a reason why I mentioned what I did? How many companies have multiple European headquarters, how many banks would issue the same fund from London as well as, say, Luxembourg?

A service provider is in quite a different position than a company that's based on physical goods. Most of the growth in the last 20-30 years came from the former, it's part of the reason why London is doing fine, unlike the rest of the country.

Last edited by Urs Max; 13.07.2016 at 16:34.
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Old 13.07.2016, 19:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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the UK should re-join EFTA
As an interim for stability, EFTA meets the referendum to Brexit. But EFTA is also premised on Free Movement. While Free Movement was heavily discussed with the referendum, it isn't a requirement to meet the referendum. Free Movement will have to be discussed as a separate issue from Brexiting in the fullness of time.

What EFTA with Brexit would bring is to disconnect the UK from ECJ jurisdiction, which is really at the root of Eurosceptism in the UK. This needs to happen ASAP, before they start getting weird ideas in Strassbourg.


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"I'm sure I saw somewhere that the call for a new referendum had been rejected." That was the first Govt. statement. Now they are allowing a debate; backtracking in action
I suspect they will use the debate merely as a training session on the topic of British Democracy, which a LOT of people seem to need. But no 2nd referendum.
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