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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #401  
Old 08.03.2016, 22:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But we would no longer be EU citizens so wouldn't qualify.
If you have permanent residence status it is very unlikely you will be kicked out.
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  #402  
Old 08.03.2016, 23:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Of course the best way to respond to this latest "threat" would be to remind Macron that the reason the migrants want to go to the UK is that they can't bear the thought of living in France with the French.
And you really think, seriously, that that would bother them one tiny weeny little bit? I'm quite sure that the Belgians would also have a whip-round to charter ferries and buy boats to get 'rid' and allow safe passage to UK.

Last edited by Odile; 08.03.2016 at 23:14.
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  #403  
Old 08.03.2016, 23:45
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It is the standard and should also mean that UK citizens with 5 years residence should not have a problem in the event of an exit.
There is some small print in the bilateral agreements with the EU that says if EU or Switzerland cancels these bilaterals then EU citizens in Switzerland keep their permits.

I assume if Brexit occurs then UK citizens also keep their Swiss permits. Since UK leaving the EU is a cancellation of the Swiss/UK bilateral agreement.

I am not sure that 5 years residence in Switzerland gives you the same EU entry benefits as 5 years residence in an EU country.

Anyway I suppose as a UK citizen you resided longer than 5 years in UK (an EU country) but how that would (or would not) benefit you for later entry into an EU country after Brexit I do not know?
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  #404  
Old 08.03.2016, 23:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

With all these unknowns no wonder the Leave side is not convincing enough. I have not heard of any plans or solid suggestions yet.
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  #405  
Old 09.03.2016, 00:10
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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And you really think, seriously, that that would bother them one tiny weeny little bit? I'm quite sure that the Belgians would also have a whip-round to charter ferries and buy boats to get 'rid' and allow safe passage to UK.
Maybe the likes of Turkey and the Libyan warlords think that refugees are a useful tool of blackmail, but the day that the civilzed countries stoop to such meaures, the EU is not worth being in anyway.

It's also interesting to see all the people on this forum who are normally all about mollycoddling refugees suddenly saying its perfectly fair to stick them on ramshackle boats and make them risk their lives just to blackmail another country into falling into Gleichschritt with Berlin.

Last edited by amogles; 09.03.2016 at 00:24.
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  #406  
Old 09.03.2016, 00:39
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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With all these unknowns no wonder the Leave side is not convincing enough. I have not heard of any plans or solid suggestions yet.
Indeed. The leave side has done a pretty poor job of spelling out the future plans and options and dispelling the fears that people rightly have.

That said, people often forget that continuing with the EU post-brexit vote is filled with unknowns too.
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  #407  
Old 09.03.2016, 00:51
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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There is some small print in the bilateral agreements with the EU that says if EU or Switzerland cancels these bilaterals then EU citizens in Switzerland keep their permits.

I assume if Brexit occurs then UK citizens also keep their Swiss permits. Since UK leaving the EU is a cancellation of the Swiss/UK bilateral agreement.

I am not sure that 5 years residence in Switzerland gives you the same EU entry benefits as 5 years residence in an EU country.

Anyway I suppose as a UK citizen you resided longer than 5 years in UK (an EU country) but how that would (or would not) benefit you for later entry into an EU country after Brexit I do not know?
if you really were desperate to live in another eu country post-brexit, you'd simply move there before brexit and get a permit (you'd have plenty of warning) then stay there for 5 years until you get permanent residence in the EU. most likely you wouldn't need to as i'm sure some deal will be done, but if after almost 2 years, no deal happens, then you can take precautions. maybe older people here can remember what the process was for working abroad pre-EU?
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  #408  
Old 09.03.2016, 08:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm quite sure that the Belgians would also have a whip-round to charter ferries and buy boats to get 'rid' and allow safe passage to UK.
Really? What makes you say that?
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  #409  
Old 09.03.2016, 09:14
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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With all these unknowns no wonder the Leave side is not convincing enough. I have not heard of any plans or solid suggestions yet.
How are they supposed to say what will happen when nothing has been negotiated yet? There's no way anyone can possibly know what will happen.

This vote isn't like the Scottish referendum. It's about knowing what we DON'T want. And that is the the EU in it's current form. The future will look after itself. Britain is big enough to manage without it.
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  #410  
Old 09.03.2016, 11:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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How are they supposed to say what will happen when nothing has been negotiated yet? There's no way anyone can possibly know what will happen.
On the one had that is true, but at the same time there are concerns that need to be addressed. For instance:

A major part of UK trade today is with the EU and is done over an agreement with allows UK firms unrestricted access to the market, no tariffs, opt outs etc... What happens to this market after an exit??? The idea of developing new export markets is all well and good, but it takes time to negotiate trade agreements, establish a market presence, build that market and so on. Lets say it takes 8 to 10 years, what happens to companies that suffer over that period, job losses etc... Will UK taxpayers end up subsidising this or what?
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  #411  
Old 09.03.2016, 11:50
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I really do not understand the people who want to leave the EU. It isn't perfect but it works most of the time. It costs the little Britain something like 5% and brings enormous advantages.

The UK farmers gain a lot from the EU, and leaving the EU will cost everyone more. Oh yes, world food prices are lower than the EU. So when Britain leaves the EU does it tell the farmers to stop producing beef, wheat, lamb, fruit? Where will it all end? Higher subsidies for UK farmers, so no advantage there.

The leavers point out that new treaties can be arranged with other countries. Probably. But these things take many years to complete, and why should a future agreement be better than the one we have?

To me the whole Brexit thing hasn't been thought through well enough. Both sides are sitting on their walls braying at each other, both sides are promising everything, but have nothing in hand. So why fiddle with a running system? If leaving, the future looks disastrous.

The Queen told Clegg in 2011, "I am not showing any political allegiance, but the EU is going in the wrong direction"
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-35760912
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  #412  
Old 09.03.2016, 12:33
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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How are they supposed to say what will happen when nothing has been negotiated yet? There's no way anyone can possibly know what will happen.

This vote isn't like the Scottish referendum. It's about knowing what we DON'T want. And that is the the EU in it's current form. The future will look after itself. Britain is big enough to manage without it.
"Britain is big enough to manage without it." Brave words but any facts to support this?
Think on why Britain joined the EU in the first place.
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  #413  
Old 09.03.2016, 12:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Britain is big enough to manage without it.
Brave words but any facts to support this?
Think on why Britain joined the EU in the first place.
Brave? I'd say plum-foolish.

Firstly, will Britain exist? I see Scotland agitating if the UK leaves, leaving us with Britain, and but it likely won't be "Great".

Secondly, really, I mean really? You think the UK is the powerhouse it used to be... pre-WWII, because let's face it, with the exception of a few hi-tech industries, it has been downhill ever since then.

I've seen articles postulating that if CH can do it, the UK can... Really, I don't know where to start ripping those comparisons apart!
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  #414  
Old 09.03.2016, 12:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I really do not understand the people who want to leave the EU. It isn't perfect but it works most of the time. It costs the little Britain something like 5% and brings enormous advantages.

The UK farmers gain a lot from the EU, and leaving the EU will cost everyone more. Oh yes, world food prices are lower than the EU. So when Britain leaves the EU does it tell the farmers to stop producing beef, wheat, lamb, fruit? Where will it all end? Higher subsidies for UK farmers, so no advantage there.

The leavers point out that new treaties can be arranged with other countries. Probably. But these things take many years to complete, and why should a future agreement be better than the one we have?

To me the whole Brexit thing hasn't been thought through well enough. Both sides are sitting on their walls braying at each other, both sides are promising everything, but have nothing in hand. So why fiddle with a running system? If leaving, the future looks disastrous.
What is there for Brexit to think through? It's not about what will happen, there will be a clean slate in which to start with. There's no alternative, Britain will get what it negotiates.

And as for subsidies, who do you think pays those? I'll give you a clue, it's not Petr Uhrin in the Czech Republic.

In simple terms, why I want to leave the EU is this. As an example, I don't like Junker. I didn't vote for him, and there's no way I can remove him by voting. It's undemocratic.

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"Britain is big enough to manage without it." Brave words but any facts to support this?
Think on why Britain joined the EU in the first place.
Do you have any facts to prove me wrong? I don't know what will happen, but I do know the UK won't turn into Mali overnight as a result of leaving the EU.
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  #415  
Old 09.03.2016, 13:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Secondly, really, I mean really? You think the UK is the powerhouse it used to be... pre-WWII, because let's face it, with the exception of a few hi-tech industries, it has been downhill ever since then.
Erm, yes. You don't even need to think it though, it's a fact. The UK has the 5th biggest economy in the world. It just doesn't have an empire anymore.

The UK economy has simply moved on from digging coal out the ground and banging lumps of metal into shape.
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  #416  
Old 09.03.2016, 13:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Erm, yes. You don't even need to think it though, it's a fact. The UK has the 5th biggest economy in the world. It just doesn't have an empire anymore.

The UK economy has simply moved on from digging coal out the ground and banging lumps of metal into shape.
The same chart shows the EU is the biggest economy in the world; you want to walk away from this?

44% of UK exports go to the EU.

The US is the main overseas investment market and the main single country export market for UK businesses. The UK has its own bilateral trade relations with the US. It also works through the European Union (EU) TransAtlantic Economic Council (TEC).
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  #417  
Old 09.03.2016, 14:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The same chart shows the EU is the biggest economy in the world; you want to walk away from this?

44% of UK exports go to the EU.

The US is the main overseas investment market and the main single country export market for UK businesses. The UK has its own bilateral trade relations with the US. It also works through the European Union (EU) TransAtlantic Economic Council (TEC).
Demand in UK products and brands worldwide is not going to die simply because we leave the EU.
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  #418  
Old 09.03.2016, 14:16
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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On the one had that is true, but at the same time there are concerns that need to be addressed. For instance:

A major part of UK trade today is with the EU and is done over an agreement with allows UK firms unrestricted access to the market, no tariffs, opt outs etc... What happens to this market after an exit??? The idea of developing new export markets is all well and good, but it takes time to negotiate trade agreements, establish a market presence, build that market and so on. Lets say it takes 8 to 10 years, what happens to companies that suffer over that period, job losses etc... Will UK taxpayers end up subsidising this or what?
Why would they not continue as before, possibly with little or no tariffs, worse case with WTO MFN tariffs?
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  #419  
Old 09.03.2016, 14:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Demand in UK products and brands worldwide is not going to die simply because we leave the EU.
Not but the 44% of your exports will be much more expensive at their market and will not be the same 44% again.

Of course trade will not halt to a stop, that is a childish argument. But please argue that it will somehow better than it is now.
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Old 09.03.2016, 14:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Come on guys, there are a lot of uncertainties for GB both in the case they stay in or in the case they go out.
Let's just make the divorce official in amical terms. The whole thing never worked anyway.

And yes, I have a "personal" interest in this because I would like to see one of the biggest trouble-makers* go, but at the same time, I really like Britain as a country and I am pretty sure it will survive a BREXIT.
And yes, German car manufacturers will want to keep exporting cars to Britain, so both parties will have an interest in striking a good deal post-BREXIT.


*Trouble-makes in the sense of always pushing for exemptions and asterisks in everything.
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