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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #4181  
Old 14.07.2016, 10:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Apart from lots of Tory and non-Tory voters back in Blighty.
Britten is divided, we got that. But a government facing the result of a referendum won't come back to the division issues before the next elections. If I remember right, it's 2020, so May might care AGAIN about it later, but not now. She is obviously convinced that she can keep the common market without any contribution to anything else and close the borders to her liking. We'll see what happen. From a French perspective, this is *mauvaise foi, from German perspective, this is dishonest, and seen from Eastern and south Europe, this is just a country that can pay but doesn't want to.

* disclaimer: there is no equivalent in English for mauvaise foi, one finds "in bad faith, dishonesty, two-faced". It's all of that a a bit more.
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  #4182  
Old 14.07.2016, 10:45
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

The only thing Merkel and May needs to agree on at the moment is the tone of the renegotiations: A calm and orderly process seeking a mutually beneficial outcome? Or one full of acrimony, hostility and spite? Assigning childish idiots on either side of the renegotiation is not good for the Fourth Reich, I mean EU.

The EU is dysfunctional, paralysed and incompetent. You can't really expect much out of it other than posturing and empty statements. The UK will need to transition to EFTA. Exit has to happen before a general election.

It's practically a done deal folks. Congratulations!
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  #4183  
Old 14.07.2016, 10:49
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The only thing Merkel and May needs to agree on at the moment is the tone of the renegotiations:
Not from a German perspective. The only thing to agree on is whether there is a Brexit or not. To the EU, there is a Brexit only when the article 50 is invoked. To the UK, there is a Brexit when they feel like it.
From a French perspective, the UK was never really in the EU anyway.
From a Polish perspective: Do we still get money?
From a Greek perspective: Are we still allowed to breathe?
etc.
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  #4184  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It should only take a few months for the UK to re-enter EFTA. Exiting the EU is completed two years after invoking Article 50. Renegotiating a bilateral may take many, many years if ever as it requires approval by all 27 members, because this is an extremely dysfunctional bunch we are talking about.

The EU MUST cooperate with the UK, as there are articles in its charter on how it is to cooperate with neighbouring countries.

Plotting this course should only take until the end of the year. All that is needed here for now is stability and certainty in the process to offset overreactions and the Project Fear caused by Brexit.

The EU needs this stability with the UK more than the UK needs it.
"It should only take a few months for the UK to re-enter EFTA. " UK cannot join EFTA before leaving the EU which (as you yourself wrote) will take years.

Anyway what is the benefit of joining EFTA? UK would still have to have freedom of movement and the ECJ and the ECHR plus lots of other EU rules to follow without the benefit of being able to influence any proposed changes to EU rules.
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  #4185  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:08
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Not from a German perspective. The only thing to agree on is whether there is a Brexit or not. To the EU, there is a Brexit only when the article 50 is invoked. To the UK, there is a Brexit when they feel like it.
From a French perspective, the UK was never really in the EU anyway.
From a Polish perspective: Do we still get money?
From a Greek perspective: Are we still allowed to breathe?
etc.
May said "Brexit is Brexit" and aligned her cabinet accordingly, and Merkel already said it is a certainty. The UK is already elucidating what post-Brexit UK looks like.

Is there really still some denial? A glimmer of wishful thinking left?
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  #4186  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:12
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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"It should only take a few months for the UK to re-enter EFTA. " UK cannot join EFTA before leaving the EU which (as you yourself wrote) will take years.

Anyway what is the benefit of joining EFTA? UK would still have to have freedom of movement and the ECJ and the ECHR plus lots of other EU rules to follow without the benefit of being able to influence any proposed changes to EU rules.
Re-joining EFTA is a matter of months. It is outlined on the EFTA charter. The UK co-fouded EFTA, and the small number of its members would love to have the UK's weight in its organization.

Re-joining EFTA will free up the UK to draw deals with non-EU countries, and free up the UK of thousands of EU regulations and ECJ rulings. It will allow for business continuity. This can be completed in two years if desired, and lengthy bilateral negotiations with EU can take place thereafter, if it is even possible.

EFTA requires Free Movement. It will be nearly impossible to deal with Free Movement along with Brexit. So that issue needs to be decoupled. Once the UK is part of EFTA, there would be more leverage to renegotiate immigration control through EFTA along with the bloc of other EFTA members.
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  #4187  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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May said "Brexit is Brexit" and aligned her cabinet accordingly, and Merkel already said it is a certainty. The UK is already elucidating what post-Brexit UK looks like.

Is there really still some denial? A glimmer of wishful thinking left?
Denial is to not invoke article 50 when one wants to leave the EU. That is denial of legality and procedures. Nothing one makes German friends with. There is a lot of wishful thinking in May's government: May wants, like Thatcher, reduce the EU to a trading place for the benefit of the UK with no second thought to anything else. This is not what is written in EU treaty and the UK doesn't care, that is a huge denial.

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Re-joining EFTA is a matter of months. It is outlined on the EFTA charter. .
After being out of EU, yes. Nobody is contesting the "months" part, only when to start counting.
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  #4188  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I am actually very optimistic about May as PM... she is center line and that fits my own political views. She seems like a tough lady too, and much more grounded than Thatcher ever was, I think the EU are going to find her a lot less of a pushover than Cameron was. Boris as foreign minister is pretty damn funny and yet at the same time mildly worrying... I just hope he manages to avoid starting WWIII with the Middle East.

It's going to be a very interesting year and beyond.
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  #4189  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:28
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Denial is to not invoke article 50 when one wants to leave the EU. That is denial of legality and procedures. Nothing one makes German friends with. There is a lot of wishful thinking in May's government: May wants, like Thatcher, reduce the EU to a trading place for the benefit of the UK with no second thought to anything else. This is not what is written in EU treaty and the UK doesn't care, that is a huge denial.
That's ignorance of the complexity of the situation. The UK needs to solidify its approach and strategy along its many interests, including the interests of EU countries, such as Germany. Abruptness in this process causes unnecessary disruptions for all sides. This is something that is to be done for stable transition in the interests of the UK first and foremost, and then any cooperating parties beyond that.

It's a childish, petulant and impetuous approach to demand triggering article 50 ASAP. I'm sure EU proponents would love to see some suffering incurred to try to draw a lesson for anyone else thinking about leaving. But this will not be done according to that game plan. The EU will need to lay its petulance and impetuousness aside.


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After being out of EU, yes. Nobody is contesting the "months" part, only when to start counting.
They can structure entry to take place upon completion of the Article 50's two year time frame.
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  #4190  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I am actually very optimistic about May as PM... she is center line and that fits my own political views. She seems like a tough lady too, and much more grounded than Thatcher ever was, I think the EU are going to find her a lot less of a pushover than Cameron was. Boris as foreign minister is pretty damn funny and yet at the same time mildly worrying... I just hope he manages to avoid starting WWIII with the Middle East.

I keep fantasing about her, a riding crop, maple syrup and an adult diaper
Fixed that for you Rich
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  #4191  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That's ignorance of the complexity of the situation. The UK needs to solidify its approach and strategy along its many interests, including the interests of EU countries, such as Germany. Abruptness in this process causes unnecessary disruptions for all sides. This is something that is to be done for stable transition in the interests of the UK first and foremost, and then any cooperating parties beyond that.
That's fine to convince the UK voters as to how good May does the job and be popular but that doesn't answer any of the issues with EU. Obviously, the UK doesn't care about any procedure and wants to only care for its interests even as a member of the EU. This is not a surprise... the other EU countries got that long time ago.
The question is whether your speech, which is internal politics, is of any use outside of the UK. The world is waiting for Merkel, as usual.
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  #4192  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:32
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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i am actually very optimistic about may as pm... She is center line and that fits my own political views. She seems like a tough lady too, and much more grounded than thatcher ever was, i think the eu are going to find her a lot less of a pushover than cameron was. Boris as foreign minister is pretty damn funny and yet at the same time mildly worrying... I just hope he manages to avoid starting wwiii with the middle east.

It's going to be a very interesting year and beyond.
brexit-referendum-thread-potential-consequences-gb-eu-brits-ch-may-boris.jpg
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  #4193  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

lol!
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  #4194  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That's fine to convince the UK voters as to how good May does the job and be popular but that doesn't answer any of the issues with EU. Obviously, the UK doesn't care about any procedure and wants to only care for its interests even as a member of the EU. This is not a surprise... the other EU countries got that long time ago.
The question is whether your speech, which is internal politics, is of any use outside of the UK. The world is waiting for Merkel, as usual.
And Merkel is waiting for the UK. They will have to wait for the UK, which holds the prerogative in this situation. Patience is a virtue.
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  #4195  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:39
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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They will have to wait for the UK, which holds the prerogative in this situation.
UK has a one shot gun.
If Germany blocks true negotiations arguing that there is no Brexit before article 50, we can end up with Britten still in EU in 2020 and May blaming it on Merkel. It depends far more on the good will of Germany behind the scene than on the British tactics in the open. And that we will never know anything about...

Back to here: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH
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  #4196  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:41
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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From a Polish perspective: Do we still get money?
From a Polish perspective, it's very much, can we still go to the Uk to work?

I don't know about Poland right now but from my Hungarian friends I know the Hungarian government is seeking to negotiate precisely that on a 1.1 basis with the UK, and in return offering to stick up big time for the UK.

Article 50 hasn't been invoked yet and people are already lining up for special deals. Only Germany (and maybe France) are pretending there is the official path and nothing else.
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  #4197  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:44
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Article 50 hasn't been invoked yet and people are already lining up for special deals. Only Germany (and maybe France) are pretending there is the official path and nothing else.
I know, this is why I wrote this: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH
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  #4198  
Old 14.07.2016, 11:45
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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UK has a one shot gun.
If Germany blocks true negotiations arguing that there is no Brexit before article 50, we can end up with Britten still in EU in 2020 and May blaming it on Merkel. It depends far more on the good will of Germany behind the scene than on the British tactics in the open. And that we will never know anything about...
You can stroke yourself silly all you want. What you are having trouble realising is that Brexit is already the declaration by the UK that it has already taken control of its destination. Passive aggressive remote control Germans can plot all they want behind the scenes to their own detriment.
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Old 14.07.2016, 11:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Obviously, the UK doesn't care about any procedure and wants to only care for its interests.
Well, at least one point they have in common with Merkel then.
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Old 14.07.2016, 11:49
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Legally, the UK is member of the union as long as article 50 has not been invoked as the referendum was legally purely consultative. In other words, May wants to negotiate the Brexit as a full member of the EU, while the EU wants to do what is in EU treaty. However, if May wants to be a full member of the EU for a while she is disregarding the referendum results for a while too, then there is no Brexit to negotiate in the first place. From a German perspective, May wants to be a EU state free from EU law. Yep, that's what it will be like in the coming years....
Nope, according to art50.3 full membership continues for two years after art.50 has been invoked (unless the two years are extended or the leave agreement has been signed before that deadline).

Negotiations are not the same as preliminary talks. They will find a way, it's in their common interest.

The UK act on the referendum says only that a vote is to be held, not what happens in case of a yes. So one could argue that the UK government has not been orderd to invoke article 50, making it illegal and therefore in contradiction to art50.1; I wonder what would happen if somebody called on the European Court of Justice after May invokes art.50, arguing exactly that

But yes, May will do whatever she can (and then some) to improve UK negotiating position. It's her job after all.
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