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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #4221  
Old 14.07.2016, 18:15
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Oh Marton, I told you not to get yourself dizzy.
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  #4222  
Old 14.07.2016, 21:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Oh Marton, I told you not to get yourself dizzy.
True; Thank you for your concerns about my general condition.

Sadly you still fail to understand the relationships between the various courts that I explained and you continue to post incorrect information.

Of course this is an Internet forum and you are free to post whatever you wish; if you wanted to, you could, for example, post the Moon is made from green cheese
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  #4223  
Old 14.07.2016, 22:14
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Sadly you still fail to understand the relationships between the various courts that I explained and you continue to post incorrect information.
Sadly Phos has never let boring things like facts affect his opinions.
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  #4224  
Old 14.07.2016, 22:28
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Gibraltar and all that...

So I was talking to a few Spanish guys today, who have another perspective on this:

They reckon that the exit will gives Spain it's best chance ever of get at least joint administration over Gibraltar. All Spain has to do is veto every single deal that is proposed that does not meet their demands, leaving the UK with the only option of accepting WTO trading rules....

These negotiations are going to be anything but straight forward.
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  #4225  
Old 14.07.2016, 22:33
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Re: Gibraltar and all that...

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So I was talking to a few Spanish guys today, who have another perspective on this:

They reckon that the exit will gives Spain it's best chance ever of get at least joint administration over Gibraltar. All Spain has to do is veto every single deal that is proposed that does not meet their demands, leaving the UK with the only option of accepting WTO trading rules....

These negotiations are going to be anything but straight forward.
If those guys want to put their money where their mouths are. I'd be happy to take bets on Gibraltar not changing hands.
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Old 14.07.2016, 22:39
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Re: Gibraltar and all that...

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So I was talking to a few Spanish guys today, who have another perspective on this:

They reckon that the exit will gives Spain it's best chance ever of get at least joint administration over Gibraltar. All Spain has to do is veto every single deal that is proposed that does not meet their demands, leaving the UK with the only option of accepting WTO trading rules....

These negotiations are going to be anything but straight forward.
Contrary to popular belief, none of the details will be decided by the man in the street.

This will inevitably lead to great discontent, on either side of the English channel.
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  #4227  
Old 14.07.2016, 22:50
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Re: Gibraltar and all that...

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So I was talking to a few Spanish guys today, who have another perspective on this:

They reckon that the exit will gives Spain it's best chance ever of get at least joint administration over Gibraltar. All Spain has to do is veto every single deal that is proposed that does not meet their demands, leaving the UK with the only option of accepting WTO trading rules....

These negotiations are going to be anything but straight forward.
Of course, every EU nation will want a piece of the action

Likely they will akso want UK to make large contributions to the EU budget same as the other non - EU countries like EFTA and Switzerland.

The EFTA contributions to the EU budget are explained here.
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  #4228  
Old 14.07.2016, 22:51
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Re-joining EFTA is a matter of months. It is outlined on the EFTA charter. The UK co-fouded EFTA, and the small number of its members would love to have the UK's weight in its organization.

Re-joining EFTA will free up the UK to draw deals with non-EU countries, and free up the UK of thousands of EU regulations and ECJ rulings. It will allow for business continuity. This can be completed in two years if desired, and lengthy bilateral negotiations with EU can take place thereafter, if it is even possible.

EFTA requires Free Movement. It will be nearly impossible to deal with Free Movement along with Brexit. So that issue needs to be decoupled. Once the UK is part of EFTA, there would be more leverage to renegotiate immigration control through EFTA along with the bloc of other EFTA members.
"Re-joining EFTA will free up the UK of thousands of EU regulations and ECJ rulings"

Norway (EFTA country) implements all EU directives as the price of being in the EU single market.
Why do you believe UK as an EFTA member will be allowed to not implement all EU directives; sorry to inconvenience you with facts

This is known as the “pay without a say” model that politicians in Oslo think the British would loathe.
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  #4229  
Old 14.07.2016, 23:39
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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"Re-joining EFTA will free up the UK of thousands of EU regulations and ECJ rulings"

Norway (EFTA country) implements all EU directives as the price of being in the EU single market.
Why do you believe UK as an EFTA member will be allowed to not implement all EU directives; sorry to inconvenience you with facts

This is known as the “pay without a say” model that politicians in Oslo think the British would loathe.
Look here:
http://www.efta.int/

Notice one of the four flags is of Switzerland.

Look here:
http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreemen...sic-features#5
5. What is not covered by the EEA Agreement?
The EEA Agreement does not cover the following EU policies: common agriculture and fisheries policies (although the EEA Agreement contains provisions on trade in agricultural and fish products); customs union; common trade policy; common foreign and security policy; justice and home affairs (the EEA EFTA States are however part of the Schengen area); direct and indirect taxation; or economic and monetary union.


With that, the UK can make as many trade deals as thy want and still access the single market. Also, the ECJ will not have primacy over UK courts for internal issues, taxation, competition, etc.

That's the last time I will spend any time addressing your thick headedness. You're welcome, and enjoy your Brexit gloom.
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  #4230  
Old 14.07.2016, 23:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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This is known as the “pay without a say” model that politicians in Oslo think the British would loathe.
Short answer: yes, more or less.
Longer answer: It's difficult to compare UK and Norway but this article is not bad at giving a short tour of the place: http://www.newsinenglish.no/2016/06/...brexit-debate/
Norway is also looking at Brexit as a chance to re-think its tights to the EU, and perhaps team up outside of EEA (norwegian: EØS), the economic area in a looser relationship to the EU in order to save money (basically). But Norway can afford the money it pays to the EU, the UK wants to save the money. I don't know what is cheapest, it depends a lot on how much custom barrier there will be in the longer term, like the infamous money the Swiss custom adds to Amazon parcels, just on a bigger scale. it also depends how much pressure uncertainty puts on the city, because uncertainty is definitely not one of the city's favorite deal, they prefer predictable maths to make profit, not real gambling. They still do gamble, but they don't see it as such when maths calms them down. May might need to listen to the city more than she would like to, or perhaps not, who knows. Nonetheless, the Norwegian model means open doors to any EU citizen hired for a job and also paying for the social benefits the way it is written down in reciprocal agreement with the whole of EU. Not at all what the Brexit voters signed for.
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  #4231  
Old 15.07.2016, 00:19
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Look here:
http://www.efta.int/

Notice one of the four flags is of Switzerland.

Look here:
http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreemen...sic-features#5
5. What is not covered by the EEA Agreement?
The EEA Agreement does not cover the following EU policies: common agriculture and fisheries policies (although the EEA Agreement contains provisions on trade in agricultural and fish products); customs union; common trade policy; common foreign and security policy; justice and home affairs (the EEA EFTA States are however part of the Schengen area); direct and indirect taxation; or economic and monetary union.


With that, the UK can make as many trade deals as thy want and still access the single market. Also, the ECJ will not have primacy over UK courts for internal issues, taxation, competition, etc.

That's the last time I will spend any time addressing your thick headedness. You're welcome, and enjoy your Brexit gloom.
We are getting confused here between EFTA and the EEA agreement, my faults as much as yours.

The European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement, which enables three of the four EFTA Member States (Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) to participate in the EU’s Internal Market.

I assume that if UK wants to join EFTA it will be to take advantage of the EEA Agreement to participate in the EU’s Internal Market.

In this case the UK will not only have to agree to free movement of people but also to Schengen; in this case the Brits will be, as they say "Over the moon!".

It does not make sense for UK to join EFTA without also joining in the EEA agreement since that would not help their UK access to the single market; anyway UK is already a member of the EEA agreement!
Currently the referendum requires UK to leave the EU but says nothing about EEA agreement membership.
Complicated isn't it?

You will note I am addressing your debating points and ignoring your personal comments

Switzerland accesses the EU internal market via their bi-lateral treaties; not via the EEA agreement.

As mentioned in your post for areas covered by the EEA agreement the ECJ will have primacy over UK courts for relevant issues.

As also mentioned in your post (the EEA EFTA States are part of the Schengen area)!
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  #4232  
Old 15.07.2016, 00:22
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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yes its fun to be "politically incorrect" on a chat site but some of us like our political leaders to be grown ups who are diplomatic and don't insult or belittle other people or countries.
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson booed at French Embassy (check out the faces of the people standing alongside him)

Harrumph, bluster, flimflam… just a bag of hot air. I suspect he's going to be punctured very fast once he has to start negotiating.
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  #4233  
Old 15.07.2016, 01:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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With that, the UK can make as many trade deals as thy want and still access the single market.
The EEA agreement incorporates the full legal requirements of the EU single market, so no the UK cannot make any trade deals it likes and continue to access the the single market. It's legal obligations are the same as it's access under it's EU membership, with the exception that it has very little input into the legislation process.

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Also, the ECJ will not have primacy over UK courts for internal issues, taxation, competition, etc.
The EFTA court takes over where the ECJ leaves off, so all rulings relating to the single market and that includes a lot, can still be appealed beyond the UK courts.

Why in heavens name do you thing the UK is looking for something better than EEA membership, if it was that easy
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Old 15.07.2016, 02:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

EFTA-EEA would not be the end state, only an interim state after Article 50 to enable business continuity and avoid deep recession. The UK can pursue FTA agreements within this status. In fact, they will have to, as exiting the EU nullifies agreements with a host of third parties.

Free Movement is still required in this intermediate state, but fishing, customs, justice and home affairs would be unshackled from ECJ. I believe this Primacy of ECJ is really what voters voted against.

Ultimately, a UK-EU bilateral is a more desirable next phase, but that will require ratification by all member states and is unlikely to be done within the 2 year Article 50 timeframe. Hammond estimates that to take at least 6 years.

This interim EFTA-EEA state meets the requirements of Brexit as it is worded. Immigration control was a debating point in the referendum, but not the referendum itself. In fullness of time, immigration control can still be pressed.

Outside of these intermediate states, it is simply the WTO route, which will actually provoke protectionist steps on both the part of the UK and the EU. For as much as the EU rattles on about UK rejection and exceptionalism, they'll need to level set on a mutually beneficial outcome. Cutting the UK loose into the wilderness is not in the EU's interest, so they would be smarter to negotiate than try to settle a score.
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  #4235  
Old 15.07.2016, 09:32
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Re: Gibraltar and all that...

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So I was talking to a few Spanish guys today, who have another perspective on this:

They reckon that the exit will gives Spain it's best chance ever of get at least joint administration over Gibraltar. All Spain has to do is veto every single deal that is proposed that does not meet their demands, leaving the UK with the only option of accepting WTO trading rules....

These negotiations are going to be anything but straight forward.
Gibraltár is a rallying point for patriotically minded Spaniards. And Spanish governments always play the Gibraltar card to deflect from domestic problems. But at the same time they know that if they ever managed to take back Gibraltar, that would massively weaken their own claims to Ceuta and Melilla. Thus they will play the card but do not go got the kill, even if the opportunity presents itself.
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Old 15.07.2016, 09:41
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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EFTA-EEA would not be the end state, only an interim state after Article 50 to enable business continuity and avoid deep recession. The UK can pursue FTA agreements within this status. In fact, they will have to, as exiting the EU nullifies agreements with a host of third parties.
Well first of all about 70% of the UK's GDP is derived from services, in particular financial services which would not be covered by this agreement. Secondly the UK could only pursue agreements within the framework of the EEA and thirdly most of the third party agreements of the EU have equivalents in the EEA agreement.

And at this stage we're done.
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Old 15.07.2016, 10:50
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well first of all about 70% of the UK's GDP is derived from services, in particular financial services which would not be covered by this agreement. Secondly the UK could only pursue agreements within the framework of the EEA and thirdly most of the third party agreements of the EU have equivalents in the EEA agreement.

And at this stage we're done.
Partially, but not completely done. It would meet the requirements of the referendum text to no longer be a member of the EU. But it does not provide immigration control, and there are still laws and regulations the EU will need to comply with. Its value is to avoid a disruption that would cause recession in the short term, particularly if the EU proves to be incompetent to react in a timely manner towards a new deal. Which is the likely scenario.

The UK can still pursue an Bilateral with immigration control, as well as pursue FTAs with the rest of the world, which is where the UK is ultimately headed.

Basically, there is a pathway out of the doom and gloom scenario, and Theresa May's cabinet appears to be postured towards this agenda. As for how they will actually proceed, I think we will hear of it soon enough in a few months.

This means the gloomy economic consequences of Brexit are quite reactionary, temporary and short-term. It may have already bottomed out. I think I would buy British Pounds now and right before a roadmap is clarified.

Project Fear has failed.
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Old 15.07.2016, 11:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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EFTA-EEA would not be the end state, only an interim state after Article 50 to enable business continuity and avoid deep recession. The UK can pursue FTA agreements within this status. In fact, they will have to, as exiting the EU nullifies agreements with a host of third parties.

Free Movement is still required in this intermediate state, but fishing, customs, justice and home affairs would be unshackled from ECJ. I believe this Primacy of ECJ is really what voters voted against.

Ultimately, a UK-EU bilateral is a more desirable next phase, but that will require ratification by all member states and is unlikely to be done within the 2 year Article 50 timeframe. Hammond estimates that to take at least 6 years.

This interim EFTA-EEA state meets the requirements of Brexit as it is worded. Immigration control was a debating point in the referendum, but not the referendum itself. In fullness of time, immigration control can still be pressed.

Outside of these intermediate states, it is simply the WTO route, which will actually provoke protectionist steps on both the part of the UK and the EU. For as much as the EU rattles on about UK rejection and exceptionalism, they'll need to level set on a mutually beneficial outcome. Cutting the UK loose into the wilderness is not in the EU's interest, so they would be smarter to negotiate than try to settle a score.
"fishing, customs, justice and home affairs would be unshackled from ECJ."

fishing! LOL, now we can all sleep safe in our beds.

"I believe this Primacy of ECJ is really what voters voted against." What is your belief based on? Here we have over 200 pages of discussion on Brexit and the first time the ECJ was mentioned as a factor was by you a couple of days ago! And if the ECJ was a major factor then joining EFTA as you propose would not solve this issue!

You do know that articles 105 and 106 of the EEA agreement link the EFTA court and the ECJ?
And article 111 states any open disputes not resolved in the EEA shall be taken to the ECJ for a ruling!

There is also Article 36 of the Statute of the EFTA court.
Any EFTA State, the EFTA Surveillance Authority, the Community and the EC Commission may intervene in cases before the Court.

Regarding Justice and Home affairs; people can always take any disputes to the European Court for Human Rights
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  #4239  
Old 15.07.2016, 11:13
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But then again, if they won't invoke article 50 soon, as expected, since they were so eager to get out of EU:roll eyes:, they should behave like an EU member country during this time...but of course, they won't. So is there any solution to make them invoke this article a.s.a.p? Because at the end of the day EU will be the one to lose from this dirty game.
It's funny in a way: they wanted better deals than anyone else and lost by their own hand, but still won't give up pushing a privileged agenda..
It takes two to tango. UK was scheduled to have EU council presidency during the 2nd half of 2017, but immediately after the vote the succession was reshuffled and UK removed from that queue.

I think this was the first reaction (in the sense of, actual action taken rather than just warm air produced) in response to Brexit. It's reasonable to conclude that the EU won't let the UK play along anymore, you can't blame the UK's reaction to that.
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  #4240  
Old 15.07.2016, 11:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It takes two to tango. UK was scheduled to have EU council presidency during the 2nd half of 2017, but immediately after the vote the succession was reshuffled and UK removed from that queue.
Do you really think that was in any remote way unreasonable in the circumstances? A UK presidency would be wholly inappropriate now.
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