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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #4281  
Old 17.07.2016, 23:45
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

One of the potential consequences that I heard about today is that grants that have already been given out, or committed, by the EU my be repayable under the terms of the grants if the UK does actually leave the EU
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  #4282  
Old 18.07.2016, 00:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Yeah, but we can get started on the negotiations. The UK can't sign anything until it's no longer part of the EU anyway. So say 2-4 years to leave and in the meantime negotiate with other countries and there should be very little gap.
You've got that the wrong way round. We can't start negotiations with the EU until we triggert Article 50 (that's the EU's position). This then means the start of negotiations with a max timeline if 2 years. If agreements can be reached before the deadline then these can be signed.
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  #4283  
Old 18.07.2016, 00:59
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That entirely depends on what the deal is. Almost all third country deals require Parliament approval and if it requires an kind of change to the treaties (free movement for example), then it needs approval beyond the Council and will involve referenda (France, Denmark & Ireland). If it only involves EEA or WTO, there would be nothing to approve, the UK would need to join EFTA and commit to the EEA agreement and so on.
"commit to the EEA agreement" so free movement and Schengen &&&&
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  #4284  
Old 18.07.2016, 08:05
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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No, the UK joined the European Economic Community not a free trade movement, that was something the UK failed to understand from day one, it would appear.
The UK joined the 'Common Market' as it was known in English at the time in 1973.
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  #4285  
Old 18.07.2016, 08:44
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That entirely depends on what the deal is. Almost all third country deals require Parliament approval and if it requires an kind of change to the treaties (free movement for example), then it needs approval beyond the Council and will involve referenda (France, Denmark & Ireland). If it only involves EEA or WTO, there would be nothing to approve, the UK would need to join EFTA and commit to the EEA agreement and so on.
Any deal that requires a treaty change and therefore a eferendum in a country won't even be considered by the EC.

No one wants to go through what Cameron just did.
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  #4286  
Old 18.07.2016, 09:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The UK joined the 'Common Market' as it was known in English at the time in 1973.
No.

Maybe commonly known as that but the official title was then the EEC.
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  #4287  
Old 18.07.2016, 09:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The British civil service has no trade negotiators, the former head of the government’s EU unit has confirmed.
Oliver Letwin says all British negotiators are currently employed by the EU.
Seems like a non-issue, no? Kind of a distinction without a difference, upon Brexit they switch back to UK as employer and that's that. The problem lies in the (lack of) knowledge and negotiating capacity available, and the potential unsuitable priorities of foreign help.
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I think any new deal outside of the existing models will be based on rational pragmatism rather than EU idealism.
That's what the UK wants, but the EU has made it very clear that this won't happen. EU actually has little choice if they want to avoid all other 27 from doing the same as the UK.
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  #4288  
Old 18.07.2016, 10:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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No.

Maybe commonly known as that but the official title was then the EEC.
It was still aimed at a single common market and not intergration into a European wide governmental system.

"The Community's initial aim was to bring about economic integration, including a common market and customs union ..."

That is what the UK signed up to with their referendum of 1975.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ferendum,_1975

The British public were not given the opportunity to vote on Maastricht.

"In accordance with British constitutional convention, specifically that of parliamentary sovereignty, ratification in the UK was not subject to approval by referendum."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maastr...y#Ratification

Now, finally, we have been given the chance and clearly stated we don't want it.
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  #4289  
Old 18.07.2016, 11:00
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Seems like a non-issue, no? Kind of a distinction without a difference, upon Brexit they switch back to UK as employer and that's that. The problem lies in the (lack of) knowledge and negotiating capacity available, and the potential unsuitable priorities of foreign help.
That's what the UK wants, but the EU has made it very clear that this won't happen. EU actually has little choice if they want to avoid all other 27 from doing the same as the UK.
Are they bothered by the idea of the interests of all 27 countries and its 500 million people taking precedence over EU interests?

The EU issues lots of statements, but most are merely words. The 27 countries are not united nor loyal to the EU. They each have circumstantial interests that change over time. EU statements only have a veneer of solidarity.

If the UK approaches this from the perspective of each country's self interest, instead of merely the UK's self-interests. I think it would resonate with the member states and it could easily dissolve that veneer of EU solidarity. I don't think the member states are as blindly loyal to the EU as the EU would like to portray. Perhaps entrenched government officials are. But when it start to connect with the population of those countries, it will be harder for their governments to maintain the same EU party line.

This does not have to mean a dissolution of the EU. Brexit could be the actual reform the EU needs to stay relevant for the future.
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  #4290  
Old 18.07.2016, 11:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Seems like a non-issue, no? Kind of a distinction without a difference, upon Brexit they switch back to UK as employer and that's that. The problem lies in the (lack of) knowledge and negotiating capacity available, and the potential unsuitable priorities of foreign help.
That's what the UK wants, but the EU has made it very clear that this won't happen. EU actually has little choice if they want to avoid all other 27 from doing the same as the UK.
"upon Brexit they switch back to UK as employer" No, EU is their employer. The EU has already announced their jobs are safe.

Trade negotiators are not slaves; they will only only switch back to UK voluntarily if they have a good job offer.
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  #4291  
Old 18.07.2016, 11:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It was still aimed at a single common market and not intergration into a European wide governmental system.

"The Community's initial aim was to bring about economic integration, including a common market and customs union ..."

That is what the UK signed up to with their referendum of 1975.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ferendum,_1975

The British public were not given the opportunity to vote on Maastricht.

"In accordance with British constitutional convention, specifically that of parliamentary sovereignty, ratification in the UK was not subject to approval by referendum."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maastr...y#Ratification

Now, finally, we have been given the chance and clearly stated we don't want it.
From your first link; "IF WE SAY 'NO'

We would have to try to negotiate some special free trade arrangement, a new Treaty. We would be bound by that Treaty. Its conditions might be harsh. But unless and until it was in force, Britain's exports to the Common Market would be seriously handicapped.

We would no longer be inside the Common Market tariff wall - but outside.

For a time at least, there would be a risk of making unemployment and inflation worse.

Other countries have made these special arrangements with the Community. They might find Community decisions irksome, even an interference with their affairs.

But they have no part in making those decisions."
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  #4292  
Old 18.07.2016, 11:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Karma!

"Boris Johnson attends his first EU foreign ministers’ meeting today"

Source (might be behind a pay wall)

Non-paywall Source
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  #4293  
Old 18.07.2016, 11:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

David Davis is the man. When asked about breaching EU law by conducting trade talks during Art 50 process, his reply?

"What are they going to do?"

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  #4294  
Old 18.07.2016, 12:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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David Davis is the man. When asked about breaching EU law by conducting trade talks during Art 50 process, his reply?

"What are they going to do?"

So he has chosen the confrontational route

"What are they going to do?"

I suppose they could seek to impose fines "Fines levied through an Article 260 TFEU3 action might be collected by putting in escrow some portion of the Member States’ EU funding streams until the Member State complies." or take some other selective action?
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  #4295  
Old 18.07.2016, 12:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So he has chosen the confrontational route

"What are they going to do?"

I suppose they could seek to impose fines "Fines levied through an Article 260 TFEU3 action might be collected by putting in escrow some portion of the Member States’ EU funding streams until the Member State complies." or take some other selective action?
Right now I wouldn't assume that just yet.

He's just rattling his sabre to please the crowds.

It's an age old tradition of the UK dealing with the EU that politicians say one thing when in Brussels and another when back at home.
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  #4296  
Old 18.07.2016, 12:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Just a side observation here. Kerry seems much more intelligent when he limits himself to short soundbites.

He is positively babbling at a press conference in Belgium right now.
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  #4297  
Old 18.07.2016, 12:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So he has chosen the confrontational route

"What are they going to do?"

I suppose they could seek to impose fines "Fines levied through an Article 260 TFEU3 action might be collected by putting in escrow some portion of the Member States’ EU funding streams until the Member State complies." or take some other selective action?
What are they, prison wardens? Having balls is not confrontational.

They would have to impose on the UK and the country they are in dialog with. Great way to splinter the EU further.

It would have been more fun if Theresa May assigned Farage to deal with the EU.
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Old 18.07.2016, 12:40
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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What are they, prison wardens? Having balls is not confrontational.

They would have to impose on the UK and the country they are in dialog with. Great way to splinter the EU further.
Judging by their actions so far, I don't think that preventing splintering is part of their agenda.

When Germans are convinced they are right and all that ...
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Old 18.07.2016, 12:59
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

So much for businesses pulling out of the UK post Brexit

Spanish train maker, CAF, announces it wants to open a plant in the UK

http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/b...bly-plant.html
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Old 18.07.2016, 13:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

And SoftBank just went shopping, buying ARM for £24bn.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ar...KCN0ZY03B?il=0

Don't they listen to the "experts"?
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