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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #421  
Old 09.03.2016, 14:22
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The same chart shows the EU is the biggest economy in the world; you want to walk away from this?

44% of UK exports go to the EU.

The US is the main overseas investment market and the main single country export market for UK businesses. The UK has its own bilateral trade relations with the US. It also works through the European Union (EU) TransAtlantic Economic Council (TEC).
If we leave, it wouldn't be the biggest economy in the world anymore!

The UK is 16% of the EU.
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  #422  
Old 09.03.2016, 14:24
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Not but the 44% of your exports will be much more expensive at their market and will not be the same 44% again.

Of course trade will not halt to a stop, that is a childish argument. But please argue that it will somehow better than it is now.
How will it be more expensive? I would put money on the UK having tariff-free trading with the EU post-brexit on 90% by value of exports if not 100%.

Not to mention any tariffs charged would be less than the tariffs we would collect so simply directing these back to exporters would make our exports cheaper!

Let's not forget the EU tariffs are low and decreasing anyway:



Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/euro...on/tariff-rate

Although in the impossible case that all trade between EU and UK stopped, we would at least fix our trade deficit:



Anyway, in the near term Europe is an under-performing market so looking at other opportunities would be a good thing. IMO, it would be better for the UK to strike it's own course rather than sink with the EU.

The same people that told us that not joining the Euro would mean the end of the UK are the same people telling us that leaving the EU will be the end of the UK. They were wrong then, they are wrong now.

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Last edited by Phil_MCR; 09.03.2016 at 14:40.
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  #423  
Old 09.03.2016, 14:46
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Not but the 44% of your exports will be much more expensive at their market and will not be the same 44% again.

Of course trade will not halt to a stop, that is a childish argument. But please argue that it will somehow better than it is now.
See Phil's posts, he is knowledgeable with economics and can answer more eloquently than I.

You are also focusing purely on trade, which is not the reason why we want to leave the EU. There are many recent talks on Youtube from UK MP's and well-known economists/businessmen about how we can potentially benefit from leaving the EU in terms of trade.
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  #424  
Old 09.03.2016, 21:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Why would they not continue as before, possibly with little or no tariffs, worse case with WTO MFN tariffs?
But this is exactly the out argument: vote out, don't worry everything will be the same or only a very little change. For the past 40 years the UK has argued for opt outs because their industry could not compete in a market with proximity and full access. And now they are suddenly going to be able to compete and even develop new markets further a field that are more price sensitive? It can be done, but I expect it will be at the cost of the employees wages. Will the UK standard of living suffer?
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  #425  
Old 09.03.2016, 23:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But this is exactly the out argument: vote out, don't worry everything will be the same or only a very little change. For the past 40 years the UK has argued for opt outs because their industry could not compete in a market with proximity and full access. And now they are suddenly going to be able to compete and even develop new markets further a field that are more price sensitive? It can be done, but I expect it will be at the cost of the employees wages. Will the UK standard of living suffer?
Which market opt-outs are you referring to?
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  #426  
Old 11.03.2016, 10:08
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Forget about BREXI for a moment- let's all of Europe unite for a massive referendum to ask for the Constitution to be changed

https://www.facebook.com/IamFreddieB...3443510543861/

so this guy can run for office again (and again) - would make a lot more difference in the long run.
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  #427  
Old 11.03.2016, 11:12
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But this is exactly the out argument: vote out, don't worry everything will be the same or only a very little change. For the past 40 years the UK has argued for opt outs because their industry could not compete in a market with proximity and full access. And now they are suddenly going to be able to compete and even develop new markets further a field that are more price sensitive? It can be done, but I expect it will be at the cost of the employees wages. Will the UK standard of living suffer?
Can the UK standard of living keep on going as it is in any situation?

Hardly anything is manufactured in the Uk any more. We have a huge trade deficit. We have a growing education and skills deficit. The only thing that seems to be making money these days is the property market, but with fewer and fewer young people able to get onto the property ladder, the benefits of that are not being equally spread any more either.

I'm not claiming to know what the silver bullet is, But keep on doing what we've been doing over the last 40 years cannot be the answer somehow.
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  #428  
Old 11.03.2016, 20:27
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Interesting article/survey. Seems people in a few more EU countries would like to have a referendum on whether their countries should stay in the EU as well.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-35775216
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  #429  
Old 12.03.2016, 10:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

This very long article from the BBC clarifies some of the outrageous statements (aka lies) made in recent weeks,

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-poli...commentary-top

I think it's a very good read, whether you want "In" or "Out"
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  #430  
Old 14.03.2016, 09:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

http://metro.co.uk/2015/11/06/so-man...#ixzz42mw4N0Dx

Ok so it's from the UK equivalent of 20 minutes but interesting nevertheless.
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  #431  
Old 14.03.2016, 09:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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http://metro.co.uk/2015/11/06/so-man...#ixzz42mw4N0Dx

Ok so it's from the UK equivalent of 20 minutes but interesting nevertheless.
Um, so where's the 7.6 million Americans worldwide that FATCA was designed to entrap? Have most of them returned home?
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  #432  
Old 22.03.2016, 20:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Brexit odds have shortened in the wake of the Brussels terror attacks. Now running at 7/4. To put that into perspective, odds of a Tory majority at the last election were far far longer.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0WO20B
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  #433  
Old 25.03.2016, 09:44
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Government has responded to the petition for all British citizens living abroad to be able to vote in the referendum. Short answer is we'll be scrapping the 15 year restriction, but it's unlikely to happen in time for the referendum.
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  #434  
Old 25.03.2016, 09:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Brexit odds have shortened in the wake of the Brussels terror attacks. Now running at 7/4. To put that into perspective, odds of a Tory majority at the last election were far far longer.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0WO20B
I was wondering how the attacks in Brussels would impact the referendum. Especially the issue of border control/Shengen.

I feel this will continue to escalate as an issue for voters.
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  #435  
Old 25.03.2016, 10:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I was wondering how the attacks in Brussels would impact the referendum. Especially the issue of border control/Shengen.

I feel this will continue to escalate as an issue for voters.
UK is not in Schengen, the borders are strictly controlled today.
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  #436  
Old 25.03.2016, 11:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Government has responded to the petition for all British citizens living abroad to be able to vote in the referendum. Short answer is we'll be scrapping the 15 year restriction, but it's unlikely to happen in time for the referendum.
I was just about to post this, got an email about it this morning.
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  #437  
Old 25.03.2016, 11:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Article by a guy called Karagiannis from King's College, London.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...093901813.html

Border controls/Schengen management on everyone's minds.

Last edited by Britething; 25.03.2016 at 13:47. Reason: Typo
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  #438  
Old 25.03.2016, 12:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Article by a guy called Karagiannis from King's College, London.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...093901813.html

Border controls/S"C"hengen management on everyone's minds.
Fixed that for you.
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  #439  
Old 25.03.2016, 18:28
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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UK is not in Schengen, the borders are strictly controlled today.
This is the British side of the border at Killeen (Speed limit sign), I don't see any controls there....
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  #440  
Old 25.03.2016, 19:13
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Neither the UK nor Ireland are part of Schengen area.

But even if one were it wouldn't mean one *has to* have border controls; in such a case it would be each countrys' own decision.
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