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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #5241  
Old 10.09.2016, 20:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But trade deals are only part of the picture.

The UK has 2 years after invoking article 50 to negotiate the "divorce"; it seems these negotiations (formally or informally) will not start until after article 50 is invoked.
From the EU side the key players in these negotiations are;
  • Council of Europe (the member states)
  • EU Commission
  • EU Parliament

So far as I understand trade deals are not part of the divorce process but are part of the post divorce negotiations and so will be handled "later"!
It's the Council of Ministers, the Council of Europe is something else.

And while these three institutions can agree treaties with third countries, there is one provision that seems to always be forgotten in UK articles - they can not agree anything that needs a treaty change.

In practical terms it is almost impossible for the UK to get the kind of deal it wants on access to the single market and concessions on FMOP without a treaty change and that means it must have the approval of each state in accordance with it's national procedures. Which of course means referenda in France, Denmark and Ireland.
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  #5242  
Old 10.09.2016, 21:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It's the Council of Ministers, the Council of Europe is something else.

And while these three institutions can agree treaties with third countries, there is one provision that seems to always be forgotten in UK articles - they can not agree anything that needs a treaty change.

In practical terms it is almost impossible for the UK to get the kind of deal it wants on access to the single market and concessions on FMOP without a treaty change and that means it must have the approval of each state in accordance with it's national procedures. Which of course means referenda in France, Denmark and Ireland.

The big assumption that the EU may will be in existence in it's current form by the time the UK ends it's 2 year negotiation period.

I don't believe thats a foregone conclusion & any investments I make will take that into account. It's a slightly outside bet, just as the UK voting to leave was.....
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  #5243  
Old 10.09.2016, 23:49
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The big assumption that the EU may will be in existence in it's current form by the time the UK ends it's 2 year negotiation period.
It is not a big assumption at all, you just have to look at the evidence so far: we have regularly heard this kind of prediction coming out of the UK for the last 40 years and it has been wrong on every occasion!

- The CAP negotiations with the USA in the late 80s, early 90s
- The renegotiations of the CAP
- The launch of the EURO
- The bail out of the PIGS
- The application of the fiscal compact
- The negotiations with the Greeks
- The polls after the UK vote
- ....

The only thing we can say about UK predictions is that they have been consistent, consistently wrong!
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  #5244  
Old 11.09.2016, 15:13
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Did anyone else see Amber Rudd commit a body language 101 faux pas on the Andrew Marr Show this morning?

When asked...

Quote:
And you are completely committed to the tens of thousands target of immigration
...she shook her head (instead of nodding) and answered...

Quote:
I am completely making sure that we reduce it, and yes, tens of thousands though it will take some time.
Hmmm....
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  #5245  
Old 11.09.2016, 18:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well if you actually took the time to read the treaty you'd find that he does!!!
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Could you please show where in the treaty that is?
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Do the research!
First common sense.

If as you claim Juncker has the authority to prevent countries from discussing trade with each other, then the EU is a dictatorship with an unelected leader. True or not, pretty much sums up why the majority of aware people in Europe would like to leave it.

And then you can change the story around later that it isn't the case.

You'll have to produce some evidence to your claim for it to be considered of any value.
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  #5246  
Old 11.09.2016, 18:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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First common sense.

If as you claim Juncker has the authority to prevent countries from discussing trade with each other, then the EU is a dictatorship with an unelected leader. True or not, pretty much sums up why the majority of aware people in Europe would like to leave it.

And then you can change the story around later that it isn't the case.

You'll have to produce some evidence to your claim for it to be considered of any value.
Because of the EU customs union and 'common commercial policy' EU member states decided in 1957 that all trade deals would be centrally negotiated (Article 133) and individual member states are consequently not allowed to make individual trade deals with non-EU countries; nothing to do with Juncker and agreed long before his time.

Source

Last edited by marton; 11.09.2016 at 21:05.
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  #5247  
Old 11.09.2016, 19:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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First common sense.
The treaty trumps your common sense and if you are not willing to the research then I for one am not going to take you seriously, except for my own amusement from time to time.
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  #5248  
Old 12.09.2016, 00:05
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Chancellor dismantles key Osborne pledge to cut corporation tax to 15% or less!
The new Chancellor has indicated that he will not slash corporation tax to 15pc in a bid to boost the economy, dismissing predecessor George Osborne’s plan as just a suggestion.
Seems 17% is still in the game plan!

Source
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  #5249  
Old 12.09.2016, 18:16
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Bye bye Dave! Ta ta!!!

Quote:
Ex-Prime Minister David Cameron To Stand Down As MP

Former Prime Minister David Cameron is standing down as an MP, triggering a by-election in his Witney seat.
Mr Cameron said he had "thought about this long and hard over the summer", deciding it was "the right thing to do to stand down".
He added: "In my view, in modern politics, with the circumstances of my resignation, it isn't really possible to be a proper backbench MP.
"As a former Prime Minister, everything you do will become a big distraction, a big diversion from what the Government needs to do for our country."

http://news.sky.com/story/ex-prime-m...as-mp-10575485
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  #5250  
Old 12.09.2016, 18:33
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

My guess is he's only gone because he's got a job offer with much more money, nothing at all to do with being a distraction! so much for the public servant facade.
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  #5251  
Old 12.09.2016, 18:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Saying that he won't resign no matter what the outcome and then promptly resigning. Now this.

He'll go down in history as one of the worst UK prime ministers ever.
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  #5252  
Old 12.09.2016, 21:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

The Government will keep key details about Brexit negotiations secret from Parliament, the Cabinet minister (David Davis) in charge of leaving the European Union has warned.

“Clearly there is a need for Parliament to be informed without giving away our negotiating position. I may not be able to tell you everything, even in private hearings,” he told the House of Lords EU select committee.

Source

It would be really nice to be able to believe the UK Govt. has some clever negotiating position up its sleeve but I fear it is just a bluff
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  #5253  
Old 12.09.2016, 22:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

More from the Independent;

Two months ago it was easy. At least according to David Davis on 11 July.

“I would expect the new Prime Minister on 9 September to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months,” he said then.

Now, David Davis speaking to the House of Lords’ European Union Select Committee today says "exiting the European Union will be the most complex negotiations ever”.

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  #5254  
Old 12.09.2016, 22:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Switzerland's stock exchange is in talks with financial regulators in a number of European countries about opening a new gateway to the EU's single market once Britain leaves the bloc, it said on Monday.

The talks highlight how the City of London's role as the region's leading financial hub is likely to be eroded to some extent as companies seek alternative centres to guarantee access to the European Union come what may.

Like many foreign financial firms in London, the SIX Swiss Exchange uses the British capital as a base for business across the European Union, given that Switzerland is not a member of the 28-nation bloc.

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  #5255  
Old 12.09.2016, 22:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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“I would expect the new Prime Minister on 9 September to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months,” he said then.
Probably before he discovered that WTO rules prevent members from negotiations until such time as they actually leave the EU....
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  #5256  
Old 12.09.2016, 23:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Article that says May will ask to maintain common market access, while limiting free movement.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...orefromreuters

Expected reactions from the EU, no common market access without free movement.
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  #5257  
Old 13.09.2016, 00:04
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Article that says May will ask to maintain common market access, while limiting free movement.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...orefromreuters

Expected reactions from the EU, no common market access without free movement.
According to this link the Cabinet does not yet appear to have achieved a consensus view; no wonder they do not want to give away "our negotiating position(s)".
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  #5258  
Old 13.09.2016, 00:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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My guess is he's only gone because he's got a job offer with much more money, nothing at all to do with being a distraction! so much for the public servant facade.
I think he might move to the country and spend more time on his hobbies.
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  #5259  
Old 13.09.2016, 00:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I think he might move to the country and spend more time on his hobbies.
Maybe he'll join Momentum and throw bricks through the office windows of female MP's who object to their leader's Kinder and Gentler Sort Of Politics.
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  #5260  
Old 13.09.2016, 00:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Probably before he discovered that WTO rules prevent members from negotiations until such time as they actually leave the EU....
I'm slightly confused by this and searched 'WTO rules' in this forum.

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I've already pointed that out in the past, there is a very real danger the the UK would end up exiting as a third country with WTO trade rules only, if one member state keeps objecting to a deal over the two year period.
Brexit - did your vote change

For the sake of clarity please...and for my sanity...who would prevent their member states from negotiating with whom?
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