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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #6821  
Old 30.11.2016, 00:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Holy cow! This would put the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened....


http://news.sky.com/story/european-c...le-50-10677193
She also said;
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"If you join the club and you wish to leave the club, you leave in accordance with the rules when you join the club … the rules of this club are the ones contained in Article 50, and the interpretation of those rules is a matter for this Court (the ECJ)."
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  #6822  
Old 30.11.2016, 00:43
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Holy cow! This would put the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened....
At this stage who knows! She is not a judge of the court, but an Advocate general's opinion is not something that should be easily discounted.

Normally judgments in other jurisdictions do not hold much sway with the judges, that is unless you don't have one of your own, as in this case... That's where the Irish Supreme Court comes in, back in 1987 it ruled that in treaty matters the constitution took precedence.

Now if you look back at decisions in the UK and the former dominions in particular, it very rare from them to rule in dramatically ways when dealing with similar subject matter. So my expectation is that it will stop at the UK Supreme Court. But only time will tell.
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  #6823  
Old 30.11.2016, 01:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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At this stage who knows! She is not a judge of the court, but an Advocate general's opinion is not something that should be easily discounted.

Normally judgments in other jurisdictions do not hold much sway with the judges, that is unless you don't have one of your own, as in this case... That's where the Irish Supreme Court comes in, back in 1987 it ruled that in treaty matters the constitution took precedence.

Now if you look back at decisions in the UK and the former dominions in particular, it very rare from them to rule in dramatically ways when dealing with similar subject matter. So my expectation is that it will stop at the UK Supreme Court. But only time will tell.
Probably 100% correct.
However it would be amusing if May obtained a decision to invoke Art. 50 without Parliamentary approval and then the EU refused to accept the invocation; unlikely I know!
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  #6824  
Old 30.11.2016, 01:12
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Angela Merkel rebuffed a request by Theresa May for assurances that Britons living in the European Union and EU citizens living in the U.K. would keep their rights to residence, work and healthcare after Brexit.

The German chancellor’s polite but firm “Nein” when the two leaders met in Berlin on November 18 dashed the British prime minister’s hopes of a quick, informal deal to reassure expatriates on both sides of the Channel that they will not lose out when Britain leaves the EU,
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Would be nice to read some facts instead of rumours spread by both sides?
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  #6825  
Old 30.11.2016, 10:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Would be nice to read some facts instead of rumours spread by both sides?
I would be amazed if it resulted in people being kicked out from either side. I know the scare stories of people having to sell their home of 50 years in france are bandied around and people who have plainly got no interest in economics and only to have a hissy fit like the French bloke Tusk say things like that but in reality we are not going to kick out people settled here and the continent arent going to boot out people settled there.
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  #6826  
Old 30.11.2016, 10:49
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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... the French bloke Tusk ....
He's Polish...

I mention as this might have a bearing on his opinion in the matter....
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  #6827  
Old 30.11.2016, 10:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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He's Polish...

I mention as this might have a bearing on his opinion in the matter....
Maybe he was thinking about Junker? Who anyway comes from Luxembourg
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  #6828  
Old 30.11.2016, 11:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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He's Polish...

I mention as this might have a bearing on his opinion in the matter....
The interesting thing about Donald Tusk - a respected polish historian,btw - he got on very well with Cameron in the past, sympathetic to some of the reforms he/ Britain was trying to bring about. I always saw him as quite supportive of the UK.

Is panic setting in with the EU leaders, I wonder? It's difficult to know what is going on.
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  #6829  
Old 30.11.2016, 11:27
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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He's Polish...

I mention as this might have a bearing on his opinion in the matter....
Ok polish then. Might not have a bearing on his opinion on the matter.

Anyway same outcome, people won't be kicked out.
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  #6830  
Old 30.11.2016, 11:51
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Ok polish then. Might not have a bearing on his opinion on the matter.

Anyway same outcome, people won't be kicked out.
..as long as they have a job anyway. Could well imagine them loosing their entitlement to unemployment benefit though. Could also see Switzerland cancelling B permits for the same reason. Plus the C only being available after 10 years.
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  #6831  
Old 30.11.2016, 12:01
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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..as long as they have a job anyway. Could well imagine them loosing their entitlement to unemployment benefit though. Could also see Switzerland cancelling B permits for the same reason. Plus the C only being available after 10 years.
I think your unemployment benefits right will be longer yes agree. Switzerland stuff I don't think, I think uk and ch will agree their own protocol. What benefit would Switzerland have by cancelling b permits ?
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  #6832  
Old 30.11.2016, 12:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Anyway same outcome, people won't be kicked out.
I know quite a few who said Brexit won't happen.

Granted it's not likely but until after it's actually happened you don't know. The fact that about 1mln of the 3.5mln are Polish may actually help as long as Tusk keeps his job.
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  #6833  
Old 30.11.2016, 12:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I think your unemployment benefits right will be longer yes agree. Switzerland stuff I don't think, I think uk and ch will agree their own protocol. What benefit would Switzerland have by cancelling b permits ?
...to be clear I mean on unemployment. If you're on a B and loose your job you'll be out.

I very much doubt there will be any special UK - Switzerland agreement however. No more than there is any special Switzerland - USA agreement.
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  #6834  
Old 30.11.2016, 12:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...to be clear I mean on unemployment. If you're on a B and loose your job you'll be out.

I very much doubt there will be any special UK - Switzerland agreement however. No more than there is any special Switzerland - USA agreement.
When it is Swiss permit renewal time then I assume UK people will in future be treated the same as other non-EU people so no more automatic permit renewal.
Plus permits will be renewed according to the non-EU time schedule so no more 5 year permits for UK people.
That of course is different from being "kicked out" and will also be subject to any Brexit agreements which are as yet unknown.
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  #6835  
Old 30.11.2016, 12:58
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...to be clear I mean on unemployment. If you're on a B and loose your job you'll be out.

I very much doubt there will be any special UK - Switzerland agreement however. No more than there is any special Switzerland - USA agreement.
At permit renewal you'd be out. I think there will be a ch-gb agreement because britains status is changing, which will trigger a discussion.
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  #6836  
Old 30.11.2016, 13:18
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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... but in reality we are not going to kick out people settled here and the continent arent going to boot out people settled there.
The UK already do boot people out, or at least threaten them with it. The cases below are just one person and a family Imagine that time, effort and expense to fight the cases of everyone who could be affected.

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Home Office makes U-turn on deporting Scot who emigrated from US 30 years ago
Officials at the Home Office have accepted that a woman who has a Scottish mother; has lived in Scotland for nearly 30 years and who is married to a Scot is British.
Crystal MacIver, 44, was threatened with deportation because of an administrative bungle made 28 years ago.
However, Ms MacIver has now been confirmed a British citizen.
http://www.scottishlegal.com/2015/07...30-years-ago/#

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An Australian family is facing imminent deportation was still hopeful last night of remaining in the UK despite apparently missing a deadline to meet visa requirements
Kathryn and Gregg Brain, who live in the Scottish Highlands, had until midnight to secure a job for Mrs Brain that meets Home Office visa requirements, after being granted an extension on their leave to remain. But there was no announcement as the deadline passed.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7165736.html
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  #6837  
Old 30.11.2016, 13:19
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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At permit renewal you'd be out. I think there will be a ch-gb agreement because britains status is changing, which will trigger a discussion.
So far as I understand under EU and EFTA rules Switzerland is not allowed to make such agreements with other countries?
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  #6838  
Old 30.11.2016, 13:24
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I think there will be a ch-gb agreement because britains status is changing...
Has changed!

My OH's B permit is for 5yrs (Greek passport) but my B permit, issued in September, is for 2yrs (British passport).
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  #6839  
Old 30.11.2016, 14:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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When it is Swiss permit renewal time then I assume UK people will in future be treated the same as other non-EU people so no more automatic permit renewal.
Plus permits will be renewed according to the non-EU time schedule so no more 5 year permits for UK people.
That of course is different from being "kicked out" and will also be subject to any Brexit agreements which are as yet unknown.
Thinking about it I was assuming that the Brexit agreements will also apply to Switzerland but now I am not sure if the bilaterals would cover this situation.

Anyway I am not sure how relevant the Brexit agreements (other than any trade agreement) would be for Switzerland. If there are relevant topics then maybe some changes to the bilaterals will be needed?
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  #6840  
Old 30.11.2016, 14:10
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Apparently May aims for a hard Brexit, i.e. no EEA, according to info leaked by the telegraph.
"Leaked by the telegraph", it was pictured by every photographer on Downing Street. This is more likely than not a stunt to provoke a reaction. Trolling if you will. A writing pad with all those notes on various topics in plain view of the photographers? I don't think so.

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Would be nice to read some facts instead of rumours spread by both sides?
Can't see this happening either:

1. More EU citizens in the UK than Brits in the EU.
2. More Germans in the UK than Brits in Germany.
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