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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #6941  
Old 02.12.2016, 16:22
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I do find that hard to believe and wonder if they would have got the same result if they'd polled 100k. There's a stubborness at play here and being quite stubborn myself, I can recognise it a mile off.
A representative poll starts getting reliable in the high triple-digits almost regardless of total population size. I seem to remember that for the US 2-3k are enough.

The big problem is, of course, managing to ask a representative sample in the first place, something the article doesn't claim the poll to be. But then again maybe they simply got shied by the Brexit polls' accuracy.

@Mikers "I am beginning to wonder what's going to happen now"
A re-vote as suggested long ago, though I'd find an early election where Leave/Remain and following up on the vote would take center stage a better option. Provided of course there is indeed a change of heart by a significant share of the population. Or accepting that this was a non-binding vote to begin with.

Last edited by Urs Max; 02.12.2016 at 16:41.
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  #6942  
Old 02.12.2016, 16:40
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The big problem is, of course, managing to ask a representative sample in the first place, something the article doesn't claim the poll to be.
The problem with polls, surveys and studies is increasingly they're no longer about gathering or analysing information, but about propaganda. At this stage whenever I come across a, for example, 'study' on some social issue, the first thing I'll check is who is behind it and if they can be traced to any group with an agenda. And unfortunately, depending on the issue in question, a lot of the time that's what you'll find.

Polls are no different in this regard as they are used as tools of propaganda in elections - being low in the polls will inevitably lead to accusations by your opponents that you lack support (presumably with good reason). I would, be very suspicious of many polls taken, many of which were carried out by pollsters with links to interested parties.

Another factor that comes to mind is the embarrassment factor. If you do a survey on, for example, incest, and ask people "have you ever practised incest with a close blood relative", you're not going to get an accurate answer as many who would have will simply lie. There are some statistical tricks to dealing with such inaccuracy, but if not used your results will end up wide off the mark.

Given the negative attitudes towards Brexit/Trump voters as being uneducated 'deplorables', it's quite likely that many Brexit/Trump voters simply lied to save face - something they did not feel they had to do in the privacy of the ballot booth.
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  #6943  
Old 02.12.2016, 17:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Which member is this? UK? If so, then the negotiation is not with a member but with a soon to be rival. Or would you be generous when working out a divorce settlement because your spouse is still technically your spouse?
Being a future rival is not a foregone conclusion.

There was nothing in Brexit saying we need to be rivals. It wear just about saying, OK, we cannot readjust our relationship while being embers, so let's stop being a member but negotiate some partnership status that is less than full membership.

When Cameron went to the Eu to ask for concessions on FMOP etc, that wasn't about being a future rival. It was about rethinking certain points of the relationship.

So to come back to your analogy, it's as if your wife comes to you and says, let's renegotiate my allowance, or rethink the way the chores in the house are distributed, and you turn on her and say "why should I give you any concessions seeing you're going to divorce me anyway". Or even say "there is no negotiation, either you accept the terms as they are or you go for full divorce and don't expect any sympathy from me".

In my book that''s the thinking of a seriously deranged individual.
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  #6944  
Old 02.12.2016, 17:16
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The establishment Labour party backed candidate lost almost 9% of their votes!
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Actually they lost almost 80% of their votes!
True, I should have written their share of the vote fell by 9%. The Labour votes changed from 7,296 to 1,515. It was the lowest number of Labour votes in the last six elections.
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  #6945  
Old 02.12.2016, 17:18
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The UK is seeking to negotiate it's future position as a independent entity from the EU, where it will be a separate and sovereign rival. And an entity who has essentially given the EU the finger and if it makes a success of it would only serve to undermine the EU's interests.
In a nutshell.
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  #6946  
Old 02.12.2016, 17:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Being a future rival is not a foregone conclusion.

There was nothing in Brexit saying we need to be rivals. It wear just about saying, OK, we cannot readjust our relationship while being embers, so let's stop being a member but negotiate some partnership status that is less than full membership.

When Cameron went to the Eu to ask for concessions on FMOP etc, that wasn't about being a future rival. It was about rethinking certain points of the relationship.

So to come back to your analogy, it's as if your wife comes to you and says, let's renegotiate my allowance, or rethink the way the chores in the house are distributed, and you turn on her and say "why should I give you any concessions seeing you're going to divorce me anyway". Or even say "there is no negotiation, either you accept the terms as they are or you go for full divorce and don't expect any sympathy from me".

In my book that''s the thinking of a seriously deranged individual.
"Being a future rival is not a foregone conclusion." You are talking about the UK that plans to become a business tax haven and has already announced a 17% Corporation tax plus cutting business rates?
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  #6947  
Old 02.12.2016, 17:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So to come back to your analogy, it's as if your wife comes to you and says, let's renegotiate my allowance, or rethink the way the chores in the house are distributed, and you turn on her and say "why should I give you any concessions seeing you're going to divorce me anyway". Or even say "there is no negotiation, either you accept the terms as they are or you go for full divorce and don't expect any sympathy from me".

In my book that''s the thinking of a seriously deranged individual.
Here, I think this can be illustrated by adding a bit of spice to the analogy. Imagine your wife tells you "Ehh, I find your constant attempts at having sex with me tiring (immigrants analogy), so I want to divorce from you and end our current relationship (brexit). I'll let you know at an unspecified time in the future what I want (the government dragging their feet), but in any case I expect that you'll continue providing me all the benefits that you have done so until now."

So here we have a country unilaterally abrogating an existing partnership, while at the same time parroting how they'll of course continue to have all the benefits that they enjoyed so far.

Maybe they will, but selling it as a fait accompli just makes them look either arrogant or like a dolt. Neither is conductive to receiving a warm welcome from the other side.
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  #6948  
Old 02.12.2016, 17:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Being a future rival is not a foregone conclusion.
Yes it is. I thought you knew how Realpolitik works?
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There was nothing in Brexit saying we need to be rivals. It wear just about saying, OK, we cannot readjust our relationship while being embers, so let's stop being a member but negotiate some partnership status that is less than full membership.
Unfortunately such a status would give the impression that you can have your cake and eat it to other EU populations who are considering leaving. Not in the EU's interests, I'm afraid.

The moment that the UK became the test case for leaving the union, she became a rival.
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When Cameron went to the Eu to ask for concessions on FMOP etc, that wasn't about being a future rival. It was about rethinking certain points of the relationship.
But as a member. The UK rejected that deal and no longer want to be members. I'm sorry, but you can't expect the same deal or frankly any comparable deal now.
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So to come back to your analogy, it's as if your wife comes to you and says, let's renegotiate my allowance, or rethink the way the chores in the house are distributed, and you turn on her and say "why should I give you any concessions seeing you're going to divorce me anyway".
Yes. You're not going to be living together for much longer anyhow, so even if you did make some interim deal it would only last until then anyway and you're under no obligation to even offer one.

You, on the other hand, are suggesting you can get divorced but continue to f**k your ex afterwords. Dream on.
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  #6949  
Old 02.12.2016, 18:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So to come back to your analogy, it's as if your wife comes to you and says, let's renegotiate my allowance, or rethink the way the chores in the house are distributed, and you turn on her and say "why should I give you any concessions seeing you're going to divorce me anyway". Or even say "there is no negotiation, either you accept the terms as they are or you go for full divorce and don't expect any sympathy from me".
In this analogy, indeed, negotiations took place (Cameron vs EU) and an agreement reached as partners. But the wife changed her mind afterwards (Cameron lost the vote), dropped the deal and wants divorce now (Brexit). All the same she expects the husband to play along and keep letting her get the benefits, calling him "unreasonable" because he refuses.
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  #6950  
Old 03.12.2016, 01:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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True, I should have written their share of the vote fell by 9%. The Labour votes changed from 7,296 to 1,515. It was the lowest number of Labour votes in the last six elections.
The Labour Party in Richmond Park was left scratching its head after earning fewer votes in the by-election than it has members in the constituency.

Christian Wolmar lost his deposit on the night, winning just 1,515 votes. The local constituency Labour Party claims to have more than 1,600 members.

Source
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  #6951  
Old 03.12.2016, 14:41
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The Labour Party in Richmond Park was left scratching its head after earning fewer votes in the by-election than it has members in the constituency.

Christian Wolmar lost his deposit on the night, winning just 1,515 votes. The local constituency Labour Party claims to have more than 1,600 members.

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Since there is no requirement to vote & you can be a member & vote for something else. No need to scratch your head, especially as the leader has probably changed since they became members
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  #6952  
Old 03.12.2016, 15:44
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The Labour Party in Richmond Park was left scratching its head after earning fewer votes in the by-election than it has members in the constituency.

Christian Wolmar lost his deposit on the night, winning just 1,515 votes. The local constituency Labour Party claims to have more than 1,600 members.

Source
Corbyn will address the party of european socialists in Prague today.

In his address, Mr Corbyn will say that while the populist right had identified many of the "right problems" at a time of growing insecurity and declining living standards, the solutions they offered were the "toxic dead-ends" of the past.

A wee-bit late, eh? Why on earth didn't he say this all along, during and before brexit.. should've shouted it from the roof tops. A little late now when the rise of the far right continues to increase in strength. Labour have really lost it in more ways than one.. populism on the far right; now it's populist for the left to suddenly talk about the forgotten many as if it had nothing to do with them whatsoever.. yeah, right Jeremy - on your watch, as much as anyone else.
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  #6953  
Old 04.12.2016, 11:34
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Corbyn will address the party of european socialists in Prague today.

In his address, Mr Corbyn will say that while the populist right had identified many of the "right problems" at a time of growing insecurity and declining living standards, the solutions they offered were the "toxic dead-ends" of the past.

A wee-bit late, eh? Why on earth didn't he say this all along, during and before brexit.. should've shouted it from the roof tops. A little late now when the rise of the far right continues to increase in strength. Labour have really lost it in more ways than one.. populism on the far right; now it's populist for the left to suddenly talk about the forgotten many as if it had nothing to do with them whatsoever.. yeah, right Jeremy - on your watch, as much as anyone else.
Corbyn also said in support of immigration
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In a speech to the Party of European Socialists, the Labour leader said: “It can be difficult to convince the long-term unemployed that the reason there is no work is not that immigrants are stealing their jobs but the result of the economic programme of the right that has failed to deliver sustainable growth, security and rising living standards for all.
Sensible stuff but will probably go down like a lead balloon in the North UK?
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  #6954  
Old 04.12.2016, 11:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Corbyn will address the party of european socialists in Prague today.

In his address, Mr Corbyn will say that while the populist right had identified many of the "right problems" at a time of growing insecurity and declining living standards, the solutions they offered were the "toxic dead-ends" of the past.

A wee-bit late, eh? Why on earth didn't he say this all along, during and before brexit.. should've shouted it from the roof tops. A little late now when the rise of the far right continues to increase in strength. Labour have really lost it in more ways than one.. populism on the far right; now it's populist for the left to suddenly talk about the forgotten many as if it had nothing to do with them whatsoever.. yeah, right Jeremy - on your watch, as much as anyone else.
Labour 16 points down in the polls and Corbyn is making speeches to socialists in Prague. Lol.
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Old 04.12.2016, 14:27
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Corbyn also said in support of immigration
Sensible stuff but will probably go down like a lead balloon in the North UK?
The thing here is they have failed to protect the older established hardworking law-abiding immigrants/families across Europe by not having a sound immigration system in place which vets, allows, supports and helps the legitimate folks who need to come, live, work in Europe. Flinging the doors open to all and then cruelly slamming them shut will go down as one of the biggest blunders in Europe's history, not to mention allowing them to wander across europe like a big free for all.. hate the way this then all feeds into the far right BS as if it's all the immigrants fault. Politicians are out of touch and have failed to support the poor (the fodder) across all races, immigrants and residents alike.

Numpties!
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Old 04.12.2016, 15:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The thing here is they have failed to protect the older established hardworking law-abiding immigrants/families across Europe by not having a sound immigration system in place which vets, allows, supports and helps the legitimate folks who need to come, live, work in Europe. Flinging the doors open to all and then cruelly slamming them shut will go down as one of the biggest blunders in Europe's history, not to mention allowing them to wander across europe like a big free for all.. hate the way this then all feeds into the far right BS as if it's all the immigrants fault. Politicians are out of touch and have failed to support the poor (the fodder) across all races, immigrants and residents alike.

Numpties!
True but not really relevant to Brexit?
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  #6957  
Old 04.12.2016, 15:37
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True but not really relevant to Brexit?
Very relevant as the underlying cause feeding into Brexit, Italy, France, Trump.. it's endemic.

Corbyn didn't speak up in time, did not fully deal with the issues of the day, ignored and failed to connect with the electorate and so they all jumped over to into Nigel's lap..
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Old 04.12.2016, 16:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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True but not really relevant to Brexit?
Absolutely relevant.

Brexit is symptomatic, but not the cause. The real cause has been clearly stated above, i.e. successive governments adopting a strategy that compromised both immigrants and residents, feeding directly into far right ideology.

Whether we like it or not, and what should absolutely be screamed from the rooftops, is that this is all caused by the rise of the far right globally. Sustained dumbing down of the populace. Propaganda against Jews, immigrants, etc. The sheer irony and hypocrisy of the head of a global brand preaching against globalisation. Post truth politics. Rejection of the legal and political establishment.

The thing that disturbs me the most in all this, is that we can write the names of the central protagonists on the back of an envelope. The should name themselves 'The Far Right Chaos Roadshow', as they move from nation to nation stirring something very dark in the people and destabilising the foundations of society.

I watched Luciana Berger MP, Shadow Minister for Mental Health, on the Andrew Marr Show this morning, who is beginning her third court case this week against members of the far right who have been making death threats against her for years, including a threat that she is going to “get it like Jo Cox did”.

When did this become acceptable and usual in British society?

That is not my homeland. That is not the society I was raised in. That was never acceptable throughout my upbringing. I won't bloody stand for it! As for Corbyn, he's far more likely to grow a cash crop in his back garden than ever grow a set of balls! Useless, pathetic, feeble little man.
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Old 04.12.2016, 16:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Very relevant as the underlying cause feeding into Brexit, Italy, France, Trump.. it's endemic.

Corbyn didn't speak up in time, did not fully deal with the issues of the day, ignored and failed to connect with the electorate and so they all jumped over to into Nigel's lap..
Thanks, I incorrectly thought Brexit was about restoring Sovereignty not that nasty anti-immigration stuff.

I agree with the comments about Corbyn.

Meanwhile we have Boris denying the Davis statement last week about possible future payments to the EU and denying that he supported FMOP in a private meeting.
These difficulties would not arise if May published her negotiation position.

Of course she has the problem that whatever she proposes a substantial part of the Brexiteers will say "that is not what we voted for" plus the moderate Tories will also make waves.
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  #6960  
Old 04.12.2016, 16:43
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Meanwhile we have Boris denying the Davis statement last week about possible future payments to the EU and denying that he supported FMOP in a private meeting.
I've just watched two interviews with Bojo from this morning, and he can't lie straight in bed that lad! He keeps using the same key words in differing orders and swearing blind that they mean the same thing, when they clearly don't. Dermot Murnaghan really had him on the back foot by asking who is lying, BoJo or the four ambassadors? I love seeing Bojo skirming.

Edit: Just watching Peston and Bojo's on that show also! Quite the media whore this morning.

Last edited by Blueangel; 04.12.2016 at 16:47. Reason: additional info
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