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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1421  
Old 21.06.2016, 09:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well as you want to be sure to include everyone perhaps you should make it clear that while 151 MPs support Brexit (presumably 150 now), 464 support remain.

Of the cabinet 6 support leave, 24 remain.

Business is of course overwhelmingly remain, only a relative handful support Brexit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-35616946
We can bandy numbers about as much as we like, but saying Remain has more than Leave doesn't mean they're right. The fact is neither group knows for sure whether the UK will be better in or out - until we actually try it.
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  #1422  
Old 21.06.2016, 09:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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We can bandy numbers about as much as we like, but saying Remain has more than Leave doesn't mean they're right. The fact is neither group knows for sure whether the UK will be better in or out - until we actually try it.
Very true.

Personally, I'd prefer the Netherlands to be the Guinea pig for this particular experiment rather than the UK. 10 or 20yrs down the line, it may well be the right course of action for the UK, but I don't believe this is the time.

I'm not risk adverse, but I like to balance a high risk with a low risk and would only ever take a high risk bet with a percentage of my profit. I've had my 100/1 winner (Norton's Coin 1990 Cheltenham Gold Cup ) but those are rare. Purely in betting terms (I worked for Tote on and off for 15yrs) there are two types of gamblers... High stake / low odds & low stake / high odds. Brexit is high stake / high odds, and for that reason amongst many, many others, I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. Plus I'd be looking for the course and distance stats, but we don't know the form because this race has never been run before.
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  #1423  
Old 21.06.2016, 10:12
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Well, I tend to be an each way better on the rare occasions when I do bet. Not really possible in this case though - and I can't vote anyway.

But Mr. Soros seems to think we'll be better off in.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36582026

And Greenland already did the exit thing.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35233683

Not a lot of similarities between them and the UK, but it shows it can be done.
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  #1424  
Old 21.06.2016, 10:18
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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We can bandy numbers about as much as we like, but saying Remain has more than Leave doesn't mean they're right. The fact is neither group knows for sure whether the UK will be better in or out - until we actually try it.
That's the problem. The lack of debate means that the outcome will be decided by:

- fear of immigration
- fear of change
- which politicians you trust least
- optimism/pessimism for UK to succeed on its own
- an inadequate assessment of the pros/cons of being in the EU
- the importance of the UK courts being the supreme courts
- finally, for some idiots, mobile roaming costs and obviating the need to change currency when travelling in the Eurozone
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  #1425  
Old 21.06.2016, 10:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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If things got out of hand (which they wouldn't, as it's in no ones interest) then in they could always be renationalised. This has to be pretty low down on the list of things to be concerned about.
Unless you are part of TTIP (still in the making). Once privatised any company or service can not be re-nationalized.
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  #1426  
Old 21.06.2016, 10:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well, I tend to be an each way better on the rare occasions when I do bet. Not really possible in this case though - and I can't vote anyway.

But Mr. Soros seems to think we'll be better off in.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36582026

And Greenland already did the exit thing.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35233683

Not a lot of similarities between them and the UK, but it shows it can be done.
Greenland!! As an example of Brexit??

The Greenland economy is critically dependent upon substantial support from the Danish government, which supplies at least half the revenues of the government.

So all UK has to do is to find a sugar daddy country to subsidise us?
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  #1427  
Old 21.06.2016, 10:50
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That's the problem. The lack of debate means that the outcome will be decided by [..]
How can you have a (reasonably, somewhat fair) debate when there are virtually no hard facts to base it on?
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  #1428  
Old 21.06.2016, 10:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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How can you have a (reasonably, somewhat fair) debate when there are virtually no hard facts to base it on?
The way I see it, there is the debate going on the EF with poll supporting it. Therefore, the final outcome of Brexit referendum will be very similar to what the EF voters subscribe to ...
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  #1429  
Old 21.06.2016, 10:59
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

George Soros, writing in the Guardian, said a Brexit vote would spark a ‘black Friday’ for the UK, but the devaluation of sterling would bring none of the benefits to the economy that it enjoyed after it dropped out of the ERM on 16 September 1992 – Black Wednesday.

He said that, as in 1992, there would be big financial gains for speculators who had bet on the UK leaving the EU but that such an outcome would leave “most voters considerably poorer”.

Source
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  #1430  
Old 21.06.2016, 11:00
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Greenland!! As an example of Brexit??

The Greenland economy is critically dependent upon substantial support from the Danish government, which supplies at least half the revenues of the government.

So all UK has to do is to find a sugar daddy country to subsidise us?
Exactly. Greenland is no example at all.

Strangely enough, I used to book flights to Kangerlussuaq Airport airport on a fairly regular basis, and all their flights are via Copenhagen.

Just a few facts on Greenland, they thought they could pay for independence from the EU and Denmark with their oil and gas industry, but this has all been put on ice because some exploration companies have returned their licences. Therefore, for the time being, Greenland is financially dependant on Denmark.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe...dependence-ice
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  #1431  
Old 21.06.2016, 11:10
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Unless you are part of TTIP (still in the making). Once privatised any company or service can not be re-nationalized.
It can. It's happened with a few airlines and with one or more of the Icelandic banks.

Re-nationalization usually only happens when a company is on the verge of complete collapse. In the case of the UK, and just using the rail service as an example, can you begin to imagine the amount of compensation that the country would have to pay to the likes of Branson et al, for all their investment over the period of privatisation? It would make the banking bailouts look like small change.
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  #1432  
Old 21.06.2016, 11:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It can. It's happened with a few airlines and with one or more of the Icelandic banks.
TTIP hasn't been finalized, signed or ratified yet, it's still in the making.
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  #1433  
Old 21.06.2016, 12:01
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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TTIP hasn't been finalized, signed or ratified yet, it's still in the making.
I don't see the link between this and my post.
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  #1434  
Old 21.06.2016, 12:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I worked in the UK between 1970 and 1977, in the defence, printing, and energy sectors. My memories of immigration, company management, unions, the governments and the press reports are terrible.

After I became an immigrant & left in 1977, I think Margaret Thatcher and the EU changed Britain in a very positive way. The result today is one that is envied in Europe. It works, and Britain is on course to pay off the national debts. So why change a running system?
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  #1435  
Old 21.06.2016, 12:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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George Soros, writing in the Guardian, said a Brexit vote would spark a ‘black Friday’ for the UK, but the devaluation of sterling would bring none of the benefits to the economy that it enjoyed after it dropped out of the ERM on 16 September 1992 – Black Wednesday.

He said that, as in 1992, there would be big financial gains for speculators who had bet on the UK leaving the EU but that such an outcome would leave “most voters considerably poorer”.

Source
Ah George Soros! You'd think that this would not have happened, had he not said (read: speculated) it. Look what happened in the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997
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  #1436  
Old 21.06.2016, 12:27
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Unless you are part of TTIP (still in the making). Once privatised any company or service can not be re-nationalized.
Don't tell Mr. Corbyn that.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-36582387
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  #1437  
Old 21.06.2016, 12:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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1. Negotiating an FTA doesn't mean you can't negotiate with anyone else
2. The UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world
3. Having a trade agreement negotiated by the UK actually means the UK can get one that benefits the UK instead of a hodge podge of compromises that is tailored to the rest of the EU (given the differences between the UK and rest of EU economy). Currently the EU negotiated trade deals may not be in the UK interest
4. The UK economy has a huge service component - something that the EU cares so little about that they haven't even opened up the internal EU service trade (mostly as an internal protectionist measure against the UK). It is also reflected in the fact that that 2 in 3 EU trade deals don't even covers trade in services!

The UK would be able to negotiate better trade deals than the EU and faster too. The UK has been harmed during its period of membership in the EU during which it has been blocked from concluding its own trade agreements.
"The UK has been harmed during its period of membership in the EU"

In fact, since the UK joined the European Economic Community in 1973, Britain has done relatively well, outperforming the EU’s largest economies, Germany, France and Italy – and the US. © ft
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  #1438  
Old 21.06.2016, 13:13
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

For a bit of 'light' relief, here is John Oliver at his very best. Warning, some swear words, but much more disturbing some purely racist stuff too and some outrageous personal attacks based on looks, by Farage and some of his UKIPers.

https://youtu.be/iAgKHSNqxa8

brilliant - oh and enjoy the karoeke too Ode to Joy as you've never heard it.
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  #1439  
Old 21.06.2016, 14:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I tend to stay out of politics and I haven't so far made any comments about Brexit on EF or even on FB. But yesterday TeleZüri wanted to interview me about it and my views and what affect it might have on Switzerland and for me and other Brits living and doing business here. It was clear to me that they wanted a bad news story, that if Brexit goes through, it would be bad for Britain but also bad for Brits in CH. But I tried to keep my views very positive. Here's some of my notes for what I said in the interview, it went on for over 30 minutes but unfortunately they edited it down to 2 x 30 second bits.

……………………..

For the record I'm generally against leaving the EU as I believe it will be bad for the UK in the long run. However, I also believe the EU does need some reform, it's not the EU that my parents voted to join in 1972. But if the vote does go ahead I can't see much changing for us Brits living and working here in CH. The UK would not be out of Europe next week, I haven't seen any mention anywhere of timescale for leaving but I can't imagine a full exit would happen this year.

There has always been a special friendship between the UK and CH and I'm sure both governments would want that to continue, in fact I'd be surprised if there had not already been some informal discussions about it between them already. We are both independently minded countries, within Europe (the continent), but never fully part of it... the UK geographically and CH politically and there has always been a lot of business and tourism between the 2 countries and of course that will continue. There are also more similarities between the people than differences and I think we are more like minded with the Swiss than we are with the French or Germans.

It would be in both countries interest to maintain free trade, and in fact if the UK does leave the EU there may be closer ties between us because of it. However if there was all of a sudden import duties to pay it wouldn't be the end of importing and doing business here. It wouldn't be a heavy financial burden and I reckon that it'd be offset by the lower value pound. I really can't see the pound strengthening in the short term because of Brexit. (In fact in the interview I pointed out that in the short term it would affect Swiss companies exporting to the UK more as the pound would almost certainly lose value.)

I went on more, also saying that it's really impossible to predict what will happen in the UK after a Brexit vote as there is so much uncertainty. But I do believe it will be bad for British business long term and, for what a lot of people in the UK see as the main reason for leaving, it won't reduce immigration, legal or otherwise (in fact it could make it easier for illegal immigrants to reach the UK).

But I am an eternal optimist and everything will be fine in the end. What is sad though is to see so much hatred and nasty opinions coming from a very vocal minority of Brits in the UK. And I don't see that as a fault of the EU, but very much a fault of some right wing politicians who seem to be intent on fanning the flames of extremism.

Will the vote succeed? I hope not, and I don't think it will. I think many people who publicly say they want out, and many "don't knows" will realise at the last minute that they really can't vote for so much uncertainty.
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  #1440  
Old 21.06.2016, 15:33
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...

Will the vote succeed? I hope not, and I don't think it will. I think many people who publicly say they want out, and many "don't knows" will realise at the last minute that they really can't vote for so much uncertainty.
My unbiased prediction is that the Brexit Referendum in 2016 will reach the same outcome as the Scottish Independence Referendum have reached in 2014.
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