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View Poll Results: Trump next president?
Yes 90 41.47%
No 127 58.53%
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  #1861  
Old 06.11.2016, 15:06
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

Some folks who do statistics for a living also recommend Drew Linzer's polling aggregator

http://votamatic.org

Daily Kos uses it in its estimation - and yes, I realize some of you might find kos biased.

After reading the methodology, though, it has some stuff in its favor -

It uses open source software - R and Stan
The data are readily accessible and there is no black box, proprietary stuff - which is an advantage to 538
It uses Bayesian methods - updating the data from new polls.

Here's a look at the method - it's technical, but gives you an idea.

https://www.dailykos.com/pages/elect...k/how-it-works

Votamatic does forecast a Hillary win, so we'll soon see how well it works this time around in a few days.
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  #1862  
Old 06.11.2016, 15:23
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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Excellent points. In that sense, it won't be that much different to what we have now with Obama:

-The Russians don't respect him
-The Syrians don't respect him
-The Chinese don't respect him
-The Iranians don't respect him
-The Philippines don't respect him
-The Libyans don't respect him
-The Egyptians don't respect him
-Et al.
Seems like not only the Oriental world is obsessed by "respect" then; why should we all respect Obama, or any other American president?
  #1863  
Old 06.11.2016, 15:44
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

Must be Friday somewhere!!
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  #1864  
Old 06.11.2016, 16:00
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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Must be Friday somewhere!!
I remember Trump saying that Putin doesn't respect Hilary (in one of their confrontations), implying he will be respected...lol

Seriously Nomadamericano, do you think Trump will improve the matter?
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  #1865  
Old 06.11.2016, 16:06
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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I remember Trump saying that Putin doesn't respect Hilary (in one of their confrontations), implying he will be respected...lol

Seriously Nomadamericano, do you think Trump will improve the matter?
Of course he will; he will increase the number of countries that do not respect POTUS.
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  #1866  
Old 06.11.2016, 16:06
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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Seems like not only the Oriental world is obsessed by "respect" then; why should we all respect Obama, or any other American president?
I'm referring to the actions real players are willing to take ((not the EU, obviously, as it is irrelevant on the international stage, so you are right that it doesn't matter if the EU (if that's what you mean by "us" - or do you mean Labourites?) respects the US president or not)):

-The Russians don't respect him (invading Crimea; seizing eastern Ukraine; taking over Syria; using Snowden and Wikileaks against him publicly (of course they would spy no matter what, but fascinating how they dump the fruits so publicly - misdirection?))

-The Syrians don't respect him (Violating Obama's Red Line on using chemical weapons, then signing the chemical weapons deal to surrender all chemical weapons, then continue using chemical weapons, etc.)

-The Chinese don't respect him (effectively seizing the S. China Sea - the consequences of which cannot be overestimated)

-The Iranians don't respect him (too many examples to list, but e.g., violating sanctions on their ballistic missile program right after signing the nuke deal, bragging about Obama paying ransom to release American hostages, seizing those sailors in the Gulf and putting them on TV, constant aggressive maneuvers around our Navy ships, the Iranian-funded Houthis firing missiles at our Navy ships, etc.)

-The Philippines don't respect him (Duterte publicly aligning with China, calling Obama a son of a whore, etc.)

-The Libyans don't respect him (speaks for itself)

-The Egyptians don't respect him (still so pissed at Obama for backing the Muslim Brotherhood)


So it's not about face, really, it's about actions and consequences (or lack thereof), and all of the above make for a more dangerous, more violent world.
  #1867  
Old 06.11.2016, 16:09
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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I remember Trump saying that Putin doesn't respect Hilary (in one of their confrontations), implying he will be respected...lol

Seriously Nomadamericano, do you think Trump will improve the matter?
No, he probably won't (unless his crazy like a fox routine makes them thing twice). He may even make it worse by giving Putin the idea he can call NATO's bluff (let's face it, it's just a bluff that NATO would do a thing if Russia seized the Baltics). Maybe he'll be impeached for being a Duterte-style lose-cannon.

But things are also really bad now. We're on razor's edge thanks to Obama's (and Hillary's, and Kerry's) incompetence and fecklessness.
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  #1868  
Old 06.11.2016, 16:19
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

Why the hell would you want your President to garner the respect of these nations? At that level, respect means precious little. It's all about fanning your tail feathers and putting on a display of power.

Obama has the respect of the Western leaders, far more than many of his predecessors. Is that worth nothing to you? If I had Putin's respect, I'd be very worried because he would never have mine.
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  #1869  
Old 06.11.2016, 16:48
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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Of course he will; he will increase the number of countries that do not respect POTUS.
Think multiplication here...
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  #1870  
Old 06.11.2016, 16:56
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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Why the hell would you want your President to garner the respect of these nations? At that level, respect means precious little. It's all about fanning your tail feathers and putting on a display of power.

Obama has the respect of the Western leaders, far more than many of his predecessors. Is that worth nothing to you? If I had Putin's respect, I'd be very worried because he would never have mine.
You are conflating likability and respect. I don't mean we should expect those nations (excluding the Philippines) to like us or admire us, but merely to respect the consequences of crossing us and our allies, the same way you should respect a worthy opponent.

Lacking respect for your opponent creates dangerous conditions.
  #1871  
Old 06.11.2016, 17:00
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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You are conflating likability and respect. I don't mean we should expect those nations (excluding the Philippines) to like us or admire us, but merely to respect the consequences of crossing us and our allies, the same way you should respect a worthy opponent.

Lacking respect for your opponent creates dangerous conditions.
Do you mean that Trump's respectful way of dealing with his opponents, detractors, or anyone not expressly supportive of him is a lot better than Obama's inflammatory manner?
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  #1872  
Old 06.11.2016, 17:28
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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Do you mean that Trump's respectful way of dealing with his opponents, detractors, or anyone not expressly supportive of him is a lot better than Obama's inflammatory manner?
As I clearly state above, Trump will most likely make it worse because of his foolishness and impulsivity. Can Trump articulate and hold to an actual strategy? I'd be amazed.

With Obama, it's fecklessness, incompetence, and an ideological naivete combined with a complete lack of strategy that has led to disaster for so many, from Ukraine to Syria to Yemen to Libya to Iran to, eventually, the countries who rely on open navigation through the S. China Sea.
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  #1873  
Old 06.11.2016, 17:44
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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You are conflating likability and respect. I don't mean we should expect those nations (excluding the Philippines) to like us or admire us, but merely to respect the consequences of crossing us and our allies, the same way you should respect a worthy opponent.

Lacking respect for your opponent creates dangerous conditions.
You're confusing respect with fear of consequences.

Obama is a man dealing with spoiled brat leaders of tin pot countries. It's like herding cats.


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Can Trump articulate ....
If he came out with a sentence that had a vocabulary superior to all the 10yr olds I know, I'd gladly lick the entire length of Bahnhoffstrasse til it's squeaky clean.
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  #1874  
Old 06.11.2016, 19:37
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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No one to blame but you, just read his lips next time.
Can't blame me! I read his lips, believed him and voted for Mike instead.
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  #1875  
Old 06.11.2016, 20:07
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

Don't know if anyone mentioned it, but that women who said she was raped by Trump at 13 has now dropped the case.

I best get my gif prepared for when Trump wins.

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  #1876  
Old 06.11.2016, 22:44
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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Don't know if anyone mentioned it, but that women who said she was raped by Trump at 13 has now dropped the case.

I best get my gif prepared for when Trump wins.
gif or gf? Has she a case also?
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  #1877  
Old 06.11.2016, 23:01
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

From today's news

Looks like the FBI investigation is over, "conclusions not changed" since July.
And Trump's staff has suspended his Twitter usage.

Just three more days of this sheeeeit.
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  #1878  
Old 07.11.2016, 00:03
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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From today's news

Looks like the FBI investigation is over, "conclusions not changed" since July.
And Trump's staff has suspended his Twitter usage.

Just three more days of this sheeeeit.

Gee ! I have my alarm clock set for 3 am EDST
  #1879  
Old 07.11.2016, 00:12
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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Don't know if anyone mentioned it, but that women who said she was raped by Trump at 13 has now dropped the case.
Genuinely scared women tend to do that out of fear. How apt/sick that you used a gif of another convicted rapist to embelish your post. Better get your wife to pull you out of that barrel you're scraping the bottom of.
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  #1880  
Old 07.11.2016, 00:14
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Re: Will Trump be the next US President?

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FBI: No evidence of crime in Clinton emails

The US election takes a turn as the FBI says it won't charge Hillary Clinton over emails from her time at the State Department.
http://news.sky.com/story/fbi-no-evi...mails-10648486

Now...can we finally get on with real politics and policies?
I'#m sick to the back teeth of sound bites, charlatans and political wannabe power hunters.
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