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View Poll Results: Would you like Marine Le Pen to become president and take France out of the EU?
Yes I want her to become president and take France out of the EU. 7 10.94%
Yes I want her to become president, but France should stay in the EU. 3 4.69%
No I don't want her to become president, but France should leave the EU nonetheless. 4 6.25%
No I don't want her to become president and I don't want France to leave the EU. 40 62.50%
I couldn't care less about Marine Le Pen, France, or the EU. 10 15.63%
Voters: 64. You may not vote on this poll

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  #101  
Old 28.11.2016, 00:42
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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And François Fillon just one the primaries. He's got a real reformer's program, looks like he can steal votes from Marine Le Pen too. 23rd of April 2017 will be an interesting evening...
Let's deal with January 20th 2017 first!

Fillon is at least a breath of fresh air (Sarko is now a thing of the past). Flanby is history too, I'm guessing.
Le Pen is sharpening her knives though; she's got S. Bannon of Breitbart on board (and he may be looking for a full-time job soon).
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  #102  
Old 28.11.2016, 01:44
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

20th of January 2017 won't be as relevant as the 22nd on the French calendar, since that's the first round of the primaries for whoever wants to run in the Belle Alliance populaire's one. That includes Arnaud de Montebourg, possibly François Hollande, possibly Manuel Valls (more on by the end of the week if not tomorrow), and a ragtag of socialist wannabes/hasbeens.
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  #103  
Old 28.11.2016, 12:01
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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And François Fillon just one the primaries. He's got a real reformer's program, looks like he can steal votes from Marine Le Pen too. 23rd of April 2017 will be an interesting evening...
Stealing votes is another way of saying parroting points of view.

And I think given the choice between the original Marine the imitation Marine, those who don't like Marine will stay at home and those who do like her will vote for the original.
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  #104  
Old 28.11.2016, 12:03
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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Le Pen is sharpening her knives though; she's got S. Bannon of Breitbart on board (and he may be looking for a full-time job soon).
To be honest, I don't know if the Breitbart style will resonate well in France, where political debates tend to be more on the big picture level and bickering about policy details is a hallmark of the losing side.
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  #105  
Old 28.11.2016, 12:35
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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Stealing votes is another way of saying parroting points of view.

And I think given the choice between the original Marine the imitation Marine, those who don't like Marine will stay at home and those who do like her will vote for the original.
Would you please give us examples of what you mean? IMHO, the FN's program is empty, apart from "We hate foreigners, especially Arabs."

I don't see Fillon is copying any FN policies, so prove me wrong. He is a traditional Catholic, so part of his program is shared with the FN's, since they share beliefs.

He was very cool and collected in the debates. He's 10 years younger than Juppé, who was kicked out, against the EF pundits expectations. His policies are rather Thatcherite, so if (when) he does get in, there are going to be some changes.

So I'm still predicting a landslide for Fillon. Sorry, no Frexit to keep EF's alt-right happy.
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  #106  
Old 01.12.2016, 11:06
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

Fillon sounds further Right than Le Pen, although he is still somewhat vague about immigration and the EU. It will be harder for him to tack Left than Le Pen, who already has. Both of them speak against France's welfare state, but Le Pen speaks of workers more so than Fillon.

I doubt we will hear about real positions until the second round, where positioning becomes clearer. In either case, if it comes down to these two, it looks like France will be taking a nationalist turn towards its own self interests. I suspect voters will embrace a "France First" platform. It doesn't seem like it bodes very well for the EU in either case.
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  #107  
Old 01.12.2016, 12:52
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

WE are becoming very conservative overall in the world. We have a mass migration happening which we have never seen in our lifetimes. People are fearful to lose their identities and I think that is why all of this is happening at the moment. I think France has enough citizens in their country that are foreigners so I think and hopefully she won't win.
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  #108  
Old 01.12.2016, 13:17
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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WE are becoming very conservative overall in the world. We have a mass migration happening which we have never seen in our lifetimes. People are fearful to lose their identities and I think that is why all of this is happening at the moment. I think France has enough citizens in their country that are foreigners so I think and hopefully she won't win.
I think the stigmatisation of Le Pen is far removed from reality, and what she proposes. There is no reason she isn't capable of reaching out to foreigners in the country. This tendency to try to entrench themselves with such perceptions is not a very effective one. It only convinces those who already have chosen to subscribe to it, and keeps them from understanding the issues that are being discussed. Hence they are shocked and surprised when things like Brexit and Trump occur.

This approach to politics only creates Black Swan events. It is somewhat weak and ineffective and not very good for discussion of issues.
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  #109  
Old 01.12.2016, 13:43
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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In November 2014, Marine Le Pen confirmed that the party had received a €9 million loan from the First Czech Russian Bank (FCRB) in Moscow to the National Front. Senior FN officials from the party's political bureau informed that this was the first installment of a €40 million loan, although Marine Le Pen has disputed this.
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Opposed to the financing of mosques from public funds, she further seeks to deny their financing from foreign assets
A certain lack of consistency.

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She supports a referendum on whether to reinstate capital punishment in France, which was abolished in 1981
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She advocates forging a privileged partnership with Russia. She claims that a French-Russian partnership is necessitated by "obvious civilization and geostrategic factors" as well as France's "energy security interests"
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The National Front considers that Ukraine has been subjugated by the United States, through the Ukrainian Crisis
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  #110  
Old 01.12.2016, 14:26
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

I'm not sure how you define Catholic values in a French concept, but the FN has very strong support within traditional Catholicism. And in fact even agnostic / secular people within the FN are talking about standing up for Catholic values, so I guess the meaning of Catholicism has evolved beyond the purely religious. Similarly when the left attacks Catholicism, they often don't mean the religion at all but just certain values and behaviours.


If Fillon's game is to be more Catholic than Le Pen, then he's definitely lost the leftist vote..
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  #111  
Old 01.12.2016, 14:30
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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I think the stigmatisation of Le Pen is far removed from reality, and what she proposes. There is no reason she isn't capable of reaching out to foreigners in the country.


On the contrary. She is doing quite well with third generation Muslims and other integrated immigrant communities. Some of them even have senior posts within the party. Similarly there are openly gay FN people. The anti Marine mudslingers are staunchly defending a narrative that is becoming increasingly untenable in view of the actual evidence.
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  #112  
Old 01.12.2016, 14:35
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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A certain lack of consistency.
Why?


She says Muslim communities need to raise their own money.


Same as when say, your local church needs a new roof. They organize jumble sales and raffles and things until they have the money. In the interests of separation of state and church it wouldn't be right for the government to hand them the cash, and it would be uncomfortably awkward if rich and intransparent foreign donors did it.
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  #113  
Old 01.12.2016, 15:03
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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Why?


She says Muslim communities need to raise their own money.


Same as when say, your local church needs a new roof. They organize jumble sales and raffles and things until they have the money. In the interests of separation of state and church it wouldn't be right for the government to hand them the cash, and it would be uncomfortably awkward if rich and intransparent foreign donors did it.
"why?" Because she gets money from Russia for her electioneering and then says mosques should not be built with foreign money.
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  #114  
Old 01.12.2016, 15:09
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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"why?" Because she gets money from Russia for her electioneering and then says mosques should not be built with foreign money.
The money she received was a loan, and she needed it because no French bank would lend her the money.

How about campaigning for a law that banks cannot discriminate for political reasons?
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  #115  
Old 01.12.2016, 15:21
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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The money she received was a loan, and she needed it because no French bank would lend her the money.

How about campaigning for a law that banks cannot discriminate for political reasons?
But she wants to "deny their [mosques] financing from foreign assets" so you really do not see the hypocrisy with the FN obtaining financing from a foreign country but mosques not allowed to borrow from foreign banks.

I assume no French bank would lend her the money because of the FN credit rating; presumably Putin is prepared to carry this risk for political reasons

In April 2015, a Russian hacker group published texts and emails between Timur Prokopenko, a member of Putin's administration, and Konstantin Rykov, a former Duma deputy with ties to France, discussing Russian financial support to the National Front in exchange for its support of Russia's annexation of Crimea.
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  #116  
Old 01.12.2016, 15:23
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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WE are becoming very conservative overall in the world. We have a mass migration happening which we have never seen in our lifetimes. People are fearful to lose their identities and I think that is why all of this is happening at the moment. I think France has enough citizens in their country that are foreigners so I think and hopefully she won't win.
The only thing a bit different in the French scenario though is that the electorate is a bit more educated compared to other places and the level of political debate is also higher for the most part. Same goes for Germany, with the mention that in Germany's case politicians themselves are more educated than the Farages and the Trumps of the world.
My feeling is that a lot of people here will be surprised that not everything goes according to the same patterns. But we'll see, of course.
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  #117  
Old 01.12.2016, 15:54
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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But she wants to "deny their [mosques] financing from foreign assets" so you really do not see the hypocrisy with the FN obtaining financing from a foreign country but mosques not allowed to borrow from foreign banks.
The transactions in question were not mosques borrowing money from a foreign bank but receiving generous donations from countries and individuals with a track record of supporting extremism. In other words, in exchange for their generosity, foreign extremists can get to dictate who gets to preach at said mosque etc.


So a better parallel here would be if all French banks decided not to give loans to mosques because they all agreed that Islam was an evil religion, and thereby forced mosques to go abroad in search of a bank.


This is a totally different story. And if it really happened I'm sure there'd be an uproar.


In fact Islam actually forbids both the giving and receiving of usury. So it's pretty clear that this is not the type of financing the mosques are getting.
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  #118  
Old 01.12.2016, 16:08
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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The only thing a bit different in the French scenario though is that the electorate is a bit more educated compared to other places and the level of political debate is also higher for the most part.

With regard to the FN, this is a relatively recent phenomenon. In the past the media and other parties would gang up on the FN in TV debates. It's only been a relatively recent thing that they let FN people finish a sentence and even agree with them sometimes.


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Same goes for Germany, with the mention that in Germany's case politicians themselves are more educated than the Farages and the Trumps of the world.

For a certain value of educated. There have been several cases of politicians having been caught plagiarising their PhD theses in the last few years. Germany has in the past had a relatively good level of political debate with different points of view being represented, but in the last couple of years there has been an unholy and uncomfortable rapprochement between the major parties and politicians repeating one another's nonsense with free thought no longer being welcome (some exceptions exist). In terms of attitudes towards political change, Germany is still where the UK and US were maybe 8 years ago. The entire reaction to Brexit and Trump as seen in the German media just reflects either a total cluelessness, or an intentional shutting of ears and eyes to facts and sticking one's heads in the sand in the hope that if you ignore what's going on and shout la la loud enough it will somehow stop happening, and you'll wake up and it will all have been a bad dream. An educated and intelligent media and political establishment doesn't solve problems that way.


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My feeling is that a lot of people here will be surprised that not everything goes according to the same patterns. But we'll see, of course.


I don't think it's about what will or will not happen. It's that the same problems are occurring in France as occurred in the UK and USA. Even if Fillon becomes president, Marine won't magically disappear into a black hole. What will happen in Germany is more an open question. Listening to Merkel's grandstanding, she is preparing Germany to be the only reasonable and decent country left standing. In other words, she sees her destiny in splendid isolation. A pity that her glorious and superior education didn't include any history courses.
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  #119  
Old 01.12.2016, 16:44
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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The only thing a bit different in the French scenario though is that the electorate is a bit more educated compared to other places and the level of political debate is also higher for the most part. Same goes for Germany, with the mention that in Germany's case politicians themselves are more educated than the Farages and the Trumps of the world.
This doesn't really cut it, or the FN wouldn't be in the position it is already, or SVP here and AfD in Germany for that matter. Being educated or not, politically or otherwise, isn't the big divider.
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  #120  
Old 01.12.2016, 16:48
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Re: Marine Le Pen for president and Frexit

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The transactions in question were not mosques borrowing money from a foreign bank but receiving generous donations from countries and individuals with a track record of supporting extremism. In other words, in exchange for their generosity, foreign extremists can get to dictate who gets to preach at said mosque etc.


So a better parallel here would be if all French banks decided not to give loans to mosques because they all agreed that Islam was an evil religion, and thereby forced mosques to go abroad in search of a bank.

This is a totally different story. And if it really happened I'm sure there'd be an uproar.

In fact Islam actually forbids both the giving and receiving of usury. So it's pretty clear that this is not the type of financing the mosques are getting.
"In fact Islam actually forbids both the giving and receiving of usury." Actually Islam only forbids charging excessive interest on loans, there is no prohibition on loans as such.

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We borrowed 2.6 million dollars in the first stage of the building of this mosque. And we paid it, as you know, in 4 1/2 years. The total interest we paid the bank was about one–third of one million in the 4 1/2 years.
Source

And if you believe the FN will pay their loan back to Russia then you are an incurable optimist.
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