This looks pretty bad for someone:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090406/...g-41f21e0.html

The town mayor of the Italian city that was wrecked by the earthquake this morning had gagged a scientist who had predicted the earthquake was about to happen. He'd noticed increased amounts of radon gas in the area, which is often associated with tectonic movements and told everyone. He ended up being reported to the police for spreading panic.

Saw an interview with a Geologists on BBC world and he stated "it is almost impossible to predict an earthquake".
The use of Judges in Italy to gag anyone who is innocent is a common feature in the Italian judicial system.
I am a veteran of 22 years of the Italian system.
As a famous Italian journalist once said"the situation in Italy is tragic but not serious",in this case very serious.

There is a certain amoutn of evidence regarding the release of radon during seismic events:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...851f8dd7784c51

Basically, as cracks start to form in rocks, radon gas is released (which forms from the radiactive decay of heavy elements).

Translated link on a blog discussing his ( Giampaolo Giuliani ) findings, on Mar 24th.

Original ( Italian )


Link to PC World Italian ( has the Youtube video ) - interview was done days before the quake.

Co-incidence ?

Live blog updates ( Italian )

While I admittedly haven't read your links yet (still trying to crawl off to the office), the articles I have read indicated that Giuliani predicted an earthquake a week before the actual strike (apparently a minor tremor happened then) using methods that have been proven unreliable.

If that's the case, then I'm not really sure I blame Bertolaso for telling him to shut up (though I personally wouldn't have ordered the takedown of the warnings - let people read and make their own decisions). Bit like yelling fire in a movie theater; maybe he got lucky this one time, but that doesn't make it right.

But I don't know any of that for a fact; be interesting to see what comes out in the next few days.

Lance

Notwithstanding cry wolf syndrome, it seems to me that an even partially reliable warning is better than none - at the very least, use it as an opportunity to tell people what to do when the earth moves.

Earthquake science is moving on, and there are various indicators that an earthquake is coming - the really difficult bit is predicting the strength.

I'm a geologist by trade, and I know that these days, the arrival of a big earthquake can be predicted with considerable accuracy, especially in the case of a well studied and understood seismic source. A series of pre-shocks with a particular character is a strong indicator that something big is coming, as is the emission of radon and other gasses. The Japanese have had considerable success studying the behaviour of Koi carp in pools, (something Bhuddist Monks have been doing for centuries). The fish respond to local changes in the earth's electric field that are induced by motion along the rupture plane.
As an aside, a very interesting fact in the case of the Tsunami that hit Sri Lanka is that elephants seemed to know that it was coming and headed for higher ground. Game keepers from the coastal reserves were amazed to see that the beasts had all wandered inland, and as a consequence, very few of them died. Elephants can feel sub-sonic vibrations through their feet, and probably responded to this.

Cheers

Jim

In China they're looking at the behaviour of snakes.

So, when's the next big one for Basel?

I think its a difficult issue. Lets say you were living in the affected area, you've been feeling the little shocks for two months now. All of a sudden a scientist (whom you never heard of) starts telling everyone that a big earthquake is coming.
What would you do ? Would you evacuate to family on your own or would you ignore the warning ?

Depends on the magnitude of the event you're talking about. Basel can expect an event with a moment magnitude of greater than 6.5 every 800 years or so. The Romans recorded such an event in around 500 AD, then there was the 1356 event, which was estimated to have been Mm 7.0, it flattened the city, and was felt as far away as London.
Basel is due another one pretty soon.

Cheers

Jim

Is it just me or does there seem to be a lot of activity recently?

Link to RedPuma

It's the beginning of the End Times. Expect floods and pestilence.

I have worked in this area many times and one is struck by how many centuries old buildings there are. No doubt that this was the reason for the collapse of so many buildings.
Lets hope they press and journalists won't try to cash in too much on this story and above all looking for some one to blame.

As far as Switzerland is concerned, we've had a thread here.

You are right, a serious consideration in all disaster planning is getting the populace to behave appropriately. A great example is when they tried a tsunami warning off the west coast of the USA in the 70's, a number of numbskulls picked up their surfboards and headed to the coast.

Cheers

Jim

The other day I looked on the horizon and saw four horsemen. The sun turned black and the moon turned blood red. A third of the population were wiped out, rocks fell from the sky. Wormwood turned the waters bitter. Then I thought... well, it's not the end of the world.

I wish someone would gag Berlusconi

Berlusconi: earthquake victims should view experience as camping weekend

Italian prime minister causes outrage over quip made during interview following Italy's worst earthquake in three decades

John Hooper in L'Aquila
Wednesday 8 April 2009 12.36 BST

A woman, who was evacuated from her home, at a camp set up in L'Aquila. Photograph: Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty Images

Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, is reported to have said the 17,000 people made homeless by Monday's earthquake should think of themselves as being on a "camping weekend".

full story

as if anyone needed further proof that Berlusconi is a complete ****wit, why they voted him in for a third attempt to completely balls it up is a mystery to me. If he was the best choice then Italy must be really scraping the barrel now. Reminds me of that old joke about Italy being the most democratic nation - everyone gets a chance to be president.

As long as political party system stays as it is in Italy, he is the only guy who can have a rather stable period of ministry (mainly due to owning media), and serve more than typical 4-5 months!

Am I the only one who is reminded of Tony Soprano when Berlusconi speaks? On second thought, Tony may even have a kinder side.