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  #21  
Old 16.03.2015, 18:03
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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It looks to me like the OP is trying to show a possible trend from just before the new measures were put in place to the end of the data period. As such the earlier data may, or may not, be significant.

Sure, any conclusion that the change is caused by said measures,, but that wasn't what was claimed.
They are significant - no "may or may not be" about it - because without looking at them, you have no way of knowing whether the data from 2011-3 is an aberration, a routine fluctuation or even a return to normal: for all we know 2008-10 could have been a historic low for this stat and 2011-13 the slow return to a historical average. (In fact as far as we know that could still be the case, because we don't have any other data. Again, eight data points is a really small set to try to conclude anything at all from... which is why blithely tossing three of them away and then drawing conclusions anyway pinged my BS detector.)


In layman's terms: the opposite of "look, an upward trend!" is not "look, a downward trend" or even "look, a flat line!" It's "look, a blip!" Statistical significance is a measure, not of how big a deviation is, but of how unlikely it is to be a blip.

But to have any idea whether something could be a blip or not, you need to know what the baseline is and what the usual blips look like. This is why you need more data than just the ones that show a particular might-be-trend emerging.
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  #22  
Old 16.03.2015, 18:12
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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The data pre-2009 is not relevant as the analysis is trying to determine whether there is a relation between USC's receiving Swiss welfare and the Obama's war on the Swiss banks and collateral damage to USCs, which started in 2011/ 2012.
Great observation!

Perhaps it has nothing to do with Obama's war though and everything to do with the death of Kim Jong Il (December 17, 2011)? That's my analysis and I declare statistically-significant correlation.
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  #23  
Old 16.03.2015, 18:12
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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That is pretty lenient. But then I just noticed....



This is about 268 individuals? Another American non-story from MennoFloyd.
100% of the unemployed Americans have no job
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  #24  
Old 16.03.2015, 18:16
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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100% of the unemployed Americans have no job
But 100% of unemployed Americans aren't on welfare.
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  #25  
Old 16.03.2015, 18:18
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

What we need is for a mathematician to weigh in on this matter. Maybe a Math Fanatic would suffice?
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  #26  
Old 16.03.2015, 18:19
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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100% of the unemployed Americans have no documented job
ftfy
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  #27  
Old 16.03.2015, 19:20
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

I'd also approach this data cautiously, as it's not clear what "sozialhilfe" means in this context. Did these folks rely on the state for 100% of assistance including housing? Maybe some received a discount on health insurance (discussed previously on EF as being sozialhilfe). How long did they receive assistance and how much? Does an individual count in the stats if they got any form of assistance at any time? It's a bit of a stretch to imply that Americans are on welfare in Switzerland because of Obama though.
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  #28  
Old 16.03.2015, 20:05
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Thanks, Obama!
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  #29  
Old 16.03.2015, 20:25
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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Thanks, Obama!
Was that an admission?

1 down, 267 to go.
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  #30  
Old 16.03.2015, 20:47
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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Was that an admission?

1 down, 267 to go.
If you have to explain it, it's not funny.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/thanks-obama

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  #31  
Old 16.03.2015, 22:11
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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So naturalized new Swiss passport holders formerly Americans don't fall in that category? People who renounced their citizenships?
The Swiss government considers Swiss dual citizens as Swiss only. A dual Swiss-American would show up in the welfare rolls as Swiss only.

The banks, on the hand, view Swiss-American dual citizens as American, until such time as they bring in the coveted Certificate of Loss of Nationality (CLN).
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  #32  
Old 18.03.2015, 07:22
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Shocking! The idea that 13.5 of 1000 Americans in Switzerland are on welfare doesn't fit in with the Democrats' view that Americans abroad are “mink-swathed, high-living jet-setters living at the taxpayer’s expense”, as a Democratic senator put it some years ago:

https://news.google.com/newspapers?n...,3644640&hl=en

Another shock - there are reports that Americans abroad are also unemployed! The figure for Germany in 2011, where 100,000 Americans live, was 5.9%, much higher than the unemployment rate of 4.6% for Germans although lower than the EU citizen rate of 6.6%.

Welfare and unemployment do not fit into the Democrats' worldview that Americans abroad drink champagne for breakfast before spending the rest of the day skiing in St. Moritz or playing roulette at Monte Carlo.
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  #33  
Old 18.03.2015, 12:02
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

This document from the German Bundesagentur für Arbeit shows the unemployment rate for Americans in Germany in June 2009 at 10.2%: (2,477 + (2,477 + 21,912)). See p. 9:

Of the 21,912 Americans employed in Germany, 3,207 were also in low-wage jobs.

http://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/S...der-201201.pdf

The German Census from 2011 shows unemployment for N. Americans in Germany in three states; these three states have some of the strongest economies in Germany:

Hessen: 4.4% N. Americans vs. 3.9% all nationalities
Baden-Württemburg: 4.9% vs. 3.1%
Bayern: 5.9% vs. 2.8%

https://ergebnisse.zensus2011.de/#dy...:sum:1:11:12:2

Contrary to what the politicians in Washington D.C. seem to think, Americans abroad are primarily wage-slaves subject to the normal labor market conditions in the countries where they live. Some even end up on welfare.
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  #34  
Old 18.03.2015, 12:23
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

I am sure that the correlation between an increase in non-EU unemployment and the recent pressure on non-EU permit quotas is simply a coincidence.
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  #35  
Old 18.03.2015, 13:23
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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Hessen: 4.4% N. Americans vs. 3.9% all nationalities - Excluding DE : 7.0%
Baden-Württemburg: 4.9% vs. 3.1% - Excluding DE : 6.4%
Bayern: 5.9% vs. 2.8% - Excluding DE : 5.7%
More cherry picking. If you calculate based on only non-German citizens, then the North Americans have comparable or signifcantly lower numbers.

https://ergebnisse.zensus2011.de/?lo...GE_HLND:sum:01

I get you don't like Obama, but you can't just make stuff up to suit you.
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  #36  
Old 18.03.2015, 17:07
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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More cherry picking. If you calculate based on only non-German citizens, then the North Americans have comparable or signifcantly lower numbers.

https://ergebnisse.zensus2011.de/?lo...GE_HLND:sum:01

I get you don't like Obama, but you can't just make stuff up to suit you.
It would be more authoritative to compare North Americans to other relatively well-educated, English-speaking immigrant nationalities in Germany rather than all non-German nationalities. Unfortunately, this census data does not provide that breakdown.

Attached is a link to a study on nationalities in Germany and their propensity to fall into poverty. On pdf p. 11, it shows that North Americans have a 12.2% likelihood to become impoverished in Germany, which compares quite respectably with 11.7% for those without a migration background, i.e., Germans. This is the lowest percentage of any immigrant group in Germany:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikati...ublicationFile

North Americans (Americans and Canadians) seem to be able to compete in German labor market but they can also become unemployed and fall into poverty. Americans abroad are far from the “mink-swathed, high-living jet-setters living at the taxpayer’s expense” that Democratic Senator Proxmire described them to be.
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Old 18.03.2015, 18:46
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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More cherry picking. If you calculate based on only non-German citizens, then the North Americans have comparable or signifcantly lower numbers.

https://ergebnisse.zensus2011.de/?lo...GE_HLND:sum:01
Was able to extract unemployment rates from the 2011 German Census data for:

North Americans: 5.5%
Germans: 4.3%
All Europeans, incl. Germans: 4.6%
Europeans, excl. Germans: 7.9%

https://ergebnisse.zensus2011.de/#dy...SANGE_KONT:1:3

https://ergebnisse.zensus2011.de/#dy...TSANGE_HLND:01

These unemployment statistics suggest North Americans are able to compete against non-German Europeans in the German labor market. They are less effective at competing with Germans in Germany.

Last edited by MennoFloyd; 18.03.2015 at 19:10. Reason: Added German unemployment rate and edited comment
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Old 19.03.2015, 07:20
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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These unemployment statistics suggest North Americans are able to compete against non-German Europeans in the German labor market. They are less effective at competing with Germans in Germany.
nss
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  #39  
Old 19.03.2015, 07:57
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

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These unemployment statistics suggest North Americans are able to compete against non-German Europeans in the German labor market. They are less effective at competing with Germans in Germany.
...and how is that shocking?
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  #40  
Old 19.03.2015, 11:56
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Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Now this is shocking! American men in the UK earn less than Australians, EU citizens, Indians and Africans, but more than Brits:

Place of birth, Ave. Hourly Wage, 2013:
Australia: £19.10
EU: £17.01
Africa: £15.59
India: £15.43
America: £15.23
UK: £14.37

Just a thought: Americans are hanging out at the pub all day with the Brits!

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.a...-labour-market
See Table 2, about 3/4 down the page.
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