Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Help & tips > Permits/visas/government
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 16.03.2015, 12:20
MennoFloyd's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Deutschschweiz
Posts: 292
Groaned at 2 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 420 Times in 193 Posts
MennoFloyd has become a little unpopularMennoFloyd has become a little unpopular
Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

This shouldn't be a surprise given the job discrimination and banking plight of many American citizens in Switzerland. From 2009 to 2013 the number of Americans on welfare increased by 40.6%, according to Statistik Schweiz:

2009: 0.96% (171 USC welfare recipients / 17,752 USCs in CH)
2010: 0.97% (181 / 18,678)
2011: 1.19% (224 / 18,816)
2012: 1.28% (252 / 19,636)
2013: 1.35% (268 / 19,915)

http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/d...03/dos/04.html

Spreadsheet: Ausländische Sozialhilfebezüger/innen nach Herkunftsland

A special thanks to the Obama administration, Team Donkey and Fatca for turning productive US citizens abroad into welfare recipients.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank MennoFloyd for this useful post:
  #2  
Old 16.03.2015, 12:44
Castro's Avatar
à la mod
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Basel-Land of Smiles
Posts: 4,772
Groaned at 91 Times in 73 Posts
Thanked 12,711 Times in 4,143 Posts
Castro has a reputation beyond reputeCastro has a reputation beyond reputeCastro has a reputation beyond reputeCastro has a reputation beyond reputeCastro has a reputation beyond reputeCastro has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

These are still relatively low numbers which may be confounded by the general rise in unemployment in certain specialist industries (e.g. Pharma and Banking) for which Americans would be disproportionately represented.
Reply With Quote
The following 6 users would like to thank Castro for this useful post:
  #3  
Old 16.03.2015, 13:01
Ace1's Avatar
A singular modality
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Engelberg & near Basel
Posts: 5,858
Groaned at 169 Times in 121 Posts
Thanked 8,902 Times in 3,984 Posts
Ace1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
These are still relatively low numbers which may be confounded by the general rise in unemployment in certain specialist industries (e.g. Pharma and Banking) for which Americans would be disproportionately represented.
There's been no significant increase for UK citizens though, who I think would be about equally represented in those industry areas.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Ace1 for this useful post:
  #4  
Old 16.03.2015, 13:40
MennoFloyd's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Deutschschweiz
Posts: 292
Groaned at 2 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 420 Times in 193 Posts
MennoFloyd has become a little unpopularMennoFloyd has become a little unpopular
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
There's been no significant increase for UK citizens though, who I think would be about equally represented in those industry areas.
UK citizens on Swiss welfare is holding constant for 2011 to 2013, as a percent of UK citizens resident in Switzerland:

2011: 0.92% (344 UKC welfare recipients / 37,273 UKCs in CH)
2012: 0.97% (384 / 39,377)
2013: 0.94% (376 / 40,105)

The percentages for 2009 and 2010 cannot be calculated due to lack of data on UKCs in CH for those years. Here are the absolute number of UKCs on Swiss welfare in those two years:
2009: 335
2010: 346

For the period 2009 to 2013, there was an absolute percentage increase of 12.6% in the number of UK citizens receiving welfare in Switzerland. For US citizens, the absolute increase was 56.7%!

The Obama administration's terror campaign against USCs in Switzerland is showing results.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 16.03.2015, 13:45
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Near Luzern
Posts: 1,316
Groaned at 76 Times in 42 Posts
Thanked 1,498 Times in 700 Posts
Patxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

I think it must have something to do with their religion. Maybe Sbrinz can find an article to help out here.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users would like to thank Patxi for this useful post:
  #6  
Old 16.03.2015, 13:50
MennoFloyd's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Deutschschweiz
Posts: 292
Groaned at 2 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 420 Times in 193 Posts
MennoFloyd has become a little unpopularMennoFloyd has become a little unpopular
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

For Canadian citizens in Switzerland, there is no meaningful uptick in their receipt of Swiss welfare:

2011: 0.92% (62 CDN welfare recipients /6,774 CDNs in CH)
2012: 0.92% (63 / 6,883)
2013: 0.95% (65 / 6,875)

The percentages for 2009 and 2010 cannot be calculated due to lack of data on CDNs in CH for those years. Absolute number of CDNs on Swiss welfare in those two years:
2009: 55
2010: 67

For the period 2009 to 2013, there was an absolute percentage increase of 18.2% (65 / 55) in the number of Canadians receiving welfare in Switzerland. As noted above, for US citizens, the absolute increase was 56.7%.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 16.03.2015, 15:21
MathNut's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Kt. Glarus
Posts: 4,234
Groaned at 35 Times in 33 Posts
Thanked 9,967 Times in 3,070 Posts
MathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Hm. I see the spreadsheet MennoFloyd linked to has data from 2006 to 2013, not just 2009-13.

Who arbitrarily discards nearly half of a data set - and coincidentally the half that doesn't support his proposed trendline? Someone with an axe to grind, that's who.

To borrow his own words, "this shouldn't be a surprise". We've been here before - artful mistranslations, outright fabricated quotes from Swiss public figures, and now cherry-picked demographic data. MennoFloyd is fast losing whatever credibility he once enjoyed.
Reply With Quote
The following 8 users would like to thank MathNut for this useful post:
This user groans at MathNut for this post:
  #8  
Old 16.03.2015, 16:02
Ace1's Avatar
A singular modality
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Engelberg & near Basel
Posts: 5,858
Groaned at 169 Times in 121 Posts
Thanked 8,902 Times in 3,984 Posts
Ace1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
Hm. I see the spreadsheet MennoFloyd linked to has data from 2006 to 2013, not just 2009-13.

Who arbitrarily discards nearly half of a data set - and coincidentally the half that doesn't support his proposed trendline? Someone with an axe to grind, that's who.
Err, I'd like to ask who would make such a criticism without actually consulting the data himself. If you had you see the figures from 2006-2008 actually further support his idea of a sharp increase, being 154, 183 and 164 respectively.

Quote:
2009: 171
2010: 181
2011: 224
2012: 252
2013: 268
Quote:
View Post
To borrow his own words, "this shouldn't be a surprise". We've been here before - artful mistranslations, outright fabricated quotes from Swiss public figures, and now cherry-picked demographic data. MennoFloyd is fast losing whatever credibility he once enjoyed.
And from you I see purely unfounded accusations of bias, which hardly gives credibility to yourself.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Ace1 for this useful post:
  #9  
Old 16.03.2015, 16:19
MusicChick's Avatar
modified and reprogrammed
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: La Cote
Posts: 9,718
Groaned at 88 Times in 71 Posts
Thanked 11,206 Times in 5,568 Posts
MusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

I think OP made an interesting observation.

This is not a dissertation defence, btw, we are a public forum open to all - even mere "unscientific" opinions (especially on Fridays).

Anyways. Let's keep the attempts to assess the OP's personality out of this and focus on debating the actual message.

Back to the subject -is it just me, who thinks the figures seem quite low?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank MusicChick for this useful post:
  #10  
Old 16.03.2015, 16:30
MathNut's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Kt. Glarus
Posts: 4,234
Groaned at 35 Times in 33 Posts
Thanked 9,967 Times in 3,070 Posts
MathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
Err, I'd like to ask who would make such a criticism without actually consulting the data himself. If you had you see the figures from 2006-2008 actually further support his idea of a sharp increase, being 154, 183 and 164 respectively.
Actually, I did and they don't, because you're missing a puzzle piece: the number of US citizens in Switzerland in each of those years. (Which to be fair can't be obtained from that spreadsheet he cited, it's another spreadsheet on the bfs website. I can dig it out from my browser history if anyone wants.)

When you flesh it out with that and calculate the percentages, you get this:

2006: 1.00% (154 / 15,335)
2007: 1.17% (183 / 15,621)
2008: 0.98% (164 / 16,669)
-----------------------------------
2009: 0.96% (171 USC welfare recipients / 17,752 USCs in CH)
2010: 0.97% (181 / 18,678)
2011: 1.19% (224 / 18,816)
2012: 1.28% (252 / 19,636)
2013: 1.35% (268 / 19,915)


So it seems 2007 was quite a bad year for US citizens resident in Switzerland: on a par with post-FATCA 2011. A 17% jump in Americans receiving social help from one year to the next? Thanks Obama (TM)... oh no wait, it's pre-Obama. And of course pre-FATCA. So much for those postulated explanations.

But then the numbers fell back down to 2006 levels the following year.

It's almost like yearly fluctuation is what small numbers do.

This apparent post-FATCA trend he's jumping on is way less pronounced, both in absolute and percentage terms, (40% over 5 years) than the Great Americans-on-Social-Aid Crisis of 2007 (17% in 1 year), which in hindsight seems to have been a statistical blip. Is this a blip too? Maybe. I don't think we can tell yet with any degree of certainty.

... and that's what an honest discussion of the data looks like. Not "let's start by ignoring the first half of our data set." Or alternatively, "let's start by looking for the lowest point and draw an upward trend line from there."


Quote:
And from you I see purely unfounded accusations of bias, which hardly gives credibility to yourself.
Not unfounded. Happy to link to the threads if you like.

I don't have a quarrel with this guy personally or with his politics, but I have a real quarrel with his methods. Either he's simply incompetent - with German, with quotation marks, with numbers - or else he routinely massages the facts to fit his desire for sensationalist reportage.
__________________
Need help? Contact a mod.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank MathNut for this useful post:
This user groans at MathNut for this post:
  #11  
Old 16.03.2015, 16:38
MennoFloyd's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Deutschschweiz
Posts: 292
Groaned at 2 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 420 Times in 193 Posts
MennoFloyd has become a little unpopularMennoFloyd has become a little unpopular
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
Hm. I see the spreadsheet MennoFloyd linked to has data from 2006 to 2013, not just 2009-13.

Who arbitrarily discards nearly half of a data set - and coincidentally the half that doesn't support his proposed trendline? Someone with an axe to grind, that's who.
The data pre-2009 is not relevant as the analysis is trying to determine whether there is a relation between USC's receiving Swiss welfare and the Obama's war on the Swiss banks and collateral damage to USCs, which started in 2011/ 2012. Additionally, although it's irrelevant, I don't have the USC population in Switzerland pre-2009, i.e., the denominator, so I can't make the calculation even if I thought it were relevant.

I did make an error with the USC, British and Canadian population data which were for 1 Jan for each year at Eurostat and not 31 Dec as I thought. Since I do not have 2009 population data for Brits and Canadians in Switzerland, let's just run the data for four years, 2010 to 2013:

USCs on Swiss Welfare:
2010: 0.96% (181 / 18,816)
2011: 1.14% (224 / 19,636)
2012: 1.27% (252 / 19,915)
2013: 1.35% (268 / 19,784)

Brits on Swiss Welfare:
2010: 0.93% (346 / 37,273)
2011: 0.87% (344 / 39,377)
2012: 0.96% (384 / 40,105)
2013: 0.92% (376 / 40,898)

Canadians on Swiss Welfare:
2010: 0.99% (67 / 6,774)
2011: 0.90% (62 / 6,883)
2012: 0.96% (63 / 6,875)
2013: 0.94% (65 / 6,888)

The results are essentially the same as before. US citizens have experienced an increase in usage of social welfare in Switzerland over the past four years while two other comparable English speaking groups have had relatively constant rates.

I attribute the increased reliance on social welfare by Americans to Obama's attack on American citizens in Switzerland which has reduced their employment opportunities and investment income.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank MennoFloyd for this useful post:
  #12  
Old 16.03.2015, 16:39
MennoFloyd's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Deutschschweiz
Posts: 292
Groaned at 2 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 420 Times in 193 Posts
MennoFloyd has become a little unpopularMennoFloyd has become a little unpopular
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
I don't have a quarrel with this guy personally or with his politics, but I have a real quarrel with his methods. Either he's simply incompetent - with German, with quotation marks, with numbers - or else he routinely massages the facts to fit his desire for sensationalist reportage.
Please save the personal insults.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank MennoFloyd for this useful post:
  #13  
Old 16.03.2015, 16:46
MathNut's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Kt. Glarus
Posts: 4,234
Groaned at 35 Times in 33 Posts
Thanked 9,967 Times in 3,070 Posts
MathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
Please save the personal insults.
I assure you no personal insult was intended. I become just as upset when anyone else plays fast and loose with facts, it's a pet peeve of mine. Absolutely no grudge against you personally.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 16.03.2015, 16:46
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Formerly in Neuchatel
Posts: 2,343
Groaned at 219 Times in 150 Posts
Thanked 3,863 Times in 1,539 Posts
porsch1909 has a reputation beyond reputeporsch1909 has a reputation beyond reputeporsch1909 has a reputation beyond reputeporsch1909 has a reputation beyond reputeporsch1909 has a reputation beyond reputeporsch1909 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users would like to thank porsch1909 for this useful post:
  #15  
Old 16.03.2015, 17:05
Phos's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: ZRH
Posts: 7,177
Groaned at 462 Times in 350 Posts
Thanked 9,364 Times in 4,926 Posts
Phos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
This shouldn't be a surprise given the job discrimination and banking plight of many American citizens in Switzerland. From 2009 to 2013 the number of Americans on welfare increased by 40.6%, according to Statistik Schweiz:
Can American citizens get welfare in Switzerland without Swiss citizenship? If so, that is news to me. Or does it leave out the fact that these are actually dual Swiss citizens?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Phos for this useful post:
  #16  
Old 16.03.2015, 17:31
Ace1's Avatar
A singular modality
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Engelberg & near Basel
Posts: 5,858
Groaned at 169 Times in 121 Posts
Thanked 8,902 Times in 3,984 Posts
Ace1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond reputeAce1 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
Can American citizens get welfare in Switzerland without Swiss citizenship? If so, that is news to me. Or does it leave out the fact that these are actually dual Swiss citizens?
As a general rule, anyone with a C permit, or time to run on a B permit (I think) is entitled to the same support as a Swiss citizen.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users would like to thank Ace1 for this useful post:
  #17  
Old 16.03.2015, 17:34
st2lemans's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Lugano
Posts: 18,138
Groaned at 927 Times in 723 Posts
Thanked 19,712 Times in 9,476 Posts
st2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Also spouses of Swiss citizens.

Tom
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 16.03.2015, 17:36
MathNut's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Kt. Glarus
Posts: 4,234
Groaned at 35 Times in 33 Posts
Thanked 9,967 Times in 3,070 Posts
MathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond reputeMathNut has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
The data pre-2009 is not relevant as the analysis is trying to determine whether there is a relation between USC's receiving Swiss welfare and the Obama's war on the Swiss banks and collateral damage to USCs, which started in 2011/ 2012. Additionally, although it's irrelevant, I don't have the USC population in Switzerland pre-2009, i.e., the denominator, so I can't make the calculation even if I thought it were relevant.
OK, stats teacher hat on.

By this logic the data for 2009 and 2010 is also irrelevant - so you're trying to deduce a trend from a(n assumed) baseline + exactly 3 data points.

However, fluctuations of +/- 15-20% per year (lest we forget, only 30-40 people!) appear to be par for the course in this population - unless you have an alternate explanation for that blip in 2006-2008?

Oh right, you said you didn't see that blip because you didn't look that far back. Then I'm not picking on you, but you really don't have any idea whether there is a stable baseline, or whether the percentage of Americans in Switzerland who are on social help has been gradually increasing for years, or oscillating predictably, or fluctuating wildly, or what it's been doing.

To put it simply and nontechnically, this is why the 2006-10 data matters: you need to know the underlying behavior - a baseline and a measure of how tightly the data clusters around that baseline - before you can argue that the 2011-13 data represents a statistically significant departure from it.

Correlation is not causation either but let's not even start down that road.

Conclusion: Statistically the assertion that the proposed trend even exists is currently shaky as all-get-out, never mind what caused it. We need more data, and there is no more data to be had. Time will tell.
__________________
Need help? Contact a mod.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users would like to thank MathNut for this useful post:
  #19  
Old 16.03.2015, 17:38
Phos's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: ZRH
Posts: 7,177
Groaned at 462 Times in 350 Posts
Thanked 9,364 Times in 4,926 Posts
Phos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond reputePhos has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

Quote:
View Post
As a general rule, anyone with a C permit, or time to run on a B permit (I think) is entitled to the same support as a Swiss citizen.
That is pretty lenient. But then I just noticed....

Quote:
2013: 1.35% (268 / 19,915)
This is about 268 individuals? Another American non-story from MennoFloyd.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Phos for this useful post:
  #20  
Old 16.03.2015, 17:49
MusicChick's Avatar
modified and reprogrammed
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: La Cote
Posts: 9,718
Groaned at 88 Times in 71 Posts
Thanked 11,206 Times in 5,568 Posts
MusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond reputeMusicChick has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Sharp increase in Americans on Swiss social welfare

So naturalized new Swiss passport holders formerly Americans don't fall in that category? People who renounced their citizenships?
Reply With Quote
Reply




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Attestation of never having requested Social Welfare in canton Vaud proshut Permits/visas/government 11 23.04.2014 15:54
Rwandan genocide suspect on Swiss welfare The Local Swiss news via The Local 0 11.06.2012 10:57
Hiring people on social welfare - where/how? Grapefruit1 Other/general 4 15.02.2012 12:13
Swiss cantons deporting foreigners on welfare The Local Swiss news via The Local 3 03.11.2011 17:36
Social welfare/Marriage cckkt Family matters/health 0 02.02.2010 00:14


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 22:24.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0